OK, they've won 16 of 37 by 2 or less. So basically on 69 games this year, you would make a profit on 53 games (19 on their 2+ run wins and 32 of their losses). This is assuming that the opposition wasn't more of a favorite than the TEX -2.5 line. On 16 of the games, you would take a decent size loss. I don't know all of the exact lines, but this might be profitable....even maybe moreso for another team that either loses or win by 2+ more often than TEX. I could be totally wrong, I'm bored at work

God, I'm stupid. I forgot to remember that some games Texas might be an underdog. I am abandoning my master plan.

Texas sucks.

nm

Bay area rules!

[IMG][/IMG]

Updated YTD: 20-51, +0.23 units, 85.4 units wagered, +0.3% ROI

Good for the Rangers. Just not good enough for us. For today, Garland on the mound is a welcome sight for the Rangers. He's someone the Rangers know pretty well from his starts last year with the Angels. Last year, he gave up 20 earned runs in 15 and 1/3 innings in just three starts against the Rangers. These things come in waves and I feel like we're just about to get hot. Tonight is a good situational game and then tomorrow the Rangers overnights have them as a big -220 favorite. I suspect the lines makers know something and to justify that much chalk on the struggling Rangers tomorrow they are gonna have to come up big tonight.

Thursday (1 Play)
2 Units on Texas Rangers -2½ +215 (5Dimes)

sweet jesus would somebody PM me the next time a thread this awesome comes around?

Typical baseball, meaningless runs which otherwise have no effect on the outcome of who wins destroying spreads and totals. GG

As opposed to 30-foot 3 pointers to cover the 12 point spread and push the total over.

Or touchdowns with 8 seconds left to get under the 6.5 spread? Oh yeah, and push the total over.

Or the empty net goal which...nm, you get the idea.

Updated YTD: 20-52, -1.77 units, 87.4 units wagered, -2.0% ROI

*Sigh*

So sick. And yet so standard. We were 1 out away from a huge momentum changing win and big +4.3 unit payday. No doubt the DBags hit a meaningless single to bust the 2½. Immediately after busting the 2½, they end the game. That's over a 6 unit difference in where we *should* be right now. Instead of things looking up, we're underwater again. Seriously folks, sometimes I wonder if me betting the Rangers -2½ causes it to lose. How else can we run so bad? There's no way to know for sure, it just feels like everything I bet turns sour.

If we're ever going to win a bet again, it is today. At -225, the Rangers are the biggest favs they've been all season. It makes sense though. They are at home with "Mr. 2½" starting. He's has been dominating going 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA in his last three starts. We are sizing our units properly with what could be a "must win" game for the Texas Rangers 2½ System. This is our first 3 unit wager. The larger wager is due to this being an easier wager to win but only paying at +150. For this system to work, we need big payouts when the Rangers come up big. 2 units at +150 is a +3.0 unit payday which is nice, but our average payout is usually more than that. So we're putting down 3 units to maintain the same rate of pay.

Friday (1 Play)
3 Units on Texas Rangers -2½ +150 (Greek)

PS, Josh Hamilton has been showing Wolverine like regenerative abilities. He took batting practice with the team yesterday(!!). Of course that means launching a home-run shot to deep center. The Rangers need him back badly. Potentially Having him in the lineup by next week not to mention All-Star game eligible could be huge for us. I am following these developments closely.

so sick that you get 3 runs in one inning and the other team gets 2, where is the fairness

Losing AT2.5 when you score 9 runs is very unlikely. The fact that it lost in the last out of the last inning makes it even worse.


I'm really feeling a run by the Rangers -2.5 system, but I'm a little worried about some lethargic bats tonite. Hopefully we can eek out a 5-2 win tonite.

Not a big fan of the rangers lately, but Kinsler is definitely turning out nice for the organization.

gtfo

Updated YTD: 21-52, +2.73 units, 90.4 units wagered, +3.0% ROI

I feel a lot better. We cashed our biggest play of the year as the Rangers coasted to an easy victory and cover. Folks, their bats are heating up, and I'm not talking about the 100+ degree temperature in Arlington right now. The Rangers have scored over 20 runs in their last two games. With the Rangers hitting finally reverting to the mean, proper bet sizing, and of course a little luck we'll turn this thing around again (still running at -24% ROI on the month).

Saturday (1 Play)
2 Units on Texas Rangers -2½ +190 (Greek)

Updated YTD: 21-53, +0.73 units, 92.4 units wagered, +0.8% ROI

So my friend Brian (the other guy in the "Dranks & Skanks" picture) agrees with the basic strategy behind the Texas Rangers 2½ System, but he still doesn't like to bet them every game like me. He prefers to pick and choose certain games. That's fine and overall he's done pretty well at it. Well tonight he decided to lay off because he isn't sold on Holland yet. We were hanging out watching the beginning of the game and I noticed little things that made it seem like he was rooting against the Rangers. I asked him about it and he said he was "anti-sweating" the game. He explained he wanted the bet to lose so that he wouldn't feel bad about not betting it. We ended up getting into an argument over it. I said he was being a dick for rooting against me when he had no actual dollars on the game. He told me to relax and what does it matter anyway. Of course the Rangers lost and now I'm feeling surly about it. So what do you think, folks, was it a dick thing to do?

Human nature, rude to be sure, but human nature.

Kind of like when a pro-sports star gets hurt and finds himself kind of rooting for his team not to do as well in his absence.

But there are a couple of lessons you can take from this:

Difficult, but your friend is rooting not to miss a bet, which in your eyes is the same as rooting against you. You can choose to let this bother you or not. Really---why let it bother you? There are a ton of life situations that come up like this.

I will loosely paraphrase from another thread.

It was found that people would be happier if they got a 5% pay cut while everyone else got 10%, than they would be if they got a 10% raise and everyone else got 20%.

Your friends rooting affected you zero, yet you let it get to you.

Plus: if your friend has a feel for this, why not work with him? Have his picks been returning a higher % than yours overall? Nothing wrong with picking your friends brain and coming to a consensus on picks.

Go Texas.

U both sound like a couple of degenerate dicks. Go outside. Stop sweating and anti sweating trivial short term results.

The party is over for the Rangers. Yesterday's loss needs to be a wake-up call to the now 2nd place Rangers. Watch today's game closely--it will be telling to see how they respond to this adversity. Today's rubber match game will be a good indicator of how the Rangers do against the huge series against the Angels on Monday.

Sevenfold, thanks. This is very good advice and puts things into perspective for me. When I ask Brian to be more specific about his W/L, ROI, etc. he says he doesn't keep track of that stuff. He said he is "about even" on sports betting.

kaboshedx, I'm going to take that advice. It's a pleasant day in Seattle, and I'm going to enjoy it--Live life a little for once.

Sunday (1 Play)
1 Unit on Texas Rangers -2½ +215 (5Dimes)

Updated YTD: 21-54, -0.27 units, 93.4 units wagered, -0.3% ROI

wtf Rangers. Seriously, wtf. The Rangers bats are setting records alright--records in futility. Getting shutout by Chad Gaudin is rock bottom and at the worst possible time before the series against the Angels.

I'll repeat something I've said before: baseball is one of the most difficult sports to predict (this challenge is actually why I like betting baseball). It's very difficult to determine if the Rangers are just in a slump or if there has been a shift in their fundamentals (poker players are familiar with this concept of running bad vs. playing bad). Smart gamblers find value betting through a team's slump. One benefit of a betting system is that it makes it much easier to play through these inevitable slumps. On the other hand, truly great sports bettors must be dynamic and adjust to changing conditions. That's the difficult situation we're in right now. How do we tell the difference between a mere slump that could end at any time and a team that has become one of the worst hitting teams in baseball (there is some interaction between slumps and fundamentals but we'll disregard that for now)?

Until things become more clear, the Texas Rangers 2½ System is going on probation. That means single unit wagers and close monitoring of fundamentals. It would be foolish to abandon ship too soon but there's no room for personal pride in this business--there's no need for the captain to go down with the ship.

Monday (1 Play)
1 Unit on Texas Rangers -2½ +240 (5Dimes) (FYI, Brian likes today's bet)

Updated YTD: 21-55, -1.27 units, 94.4 units wagered, -1.3% ROI

More agony in Arlington. Moving on. Today we face Saunders who the Rangers lit up for 6 runs in 3 innings on May 15th (this is the game that lives in infamy). Then tomorrow the Rangers have Millwood starting. So I feel like it's "must-win" time. If the Rangers can't muster up at least 1 big win in the next two games... well, then I am just going to burn this whole system to the ground.

Tuesday (1 Play)
1 Unit on Texas Rangers -2½ +255 (5Dimes)

Two important announcements, folks.

1) Get your all-star votes in for Ian Kinsler. With just 3 days left of voting, he leads Pedroia by a mere ~7,000 votes. I'm not telling you to vote for him because I bet on the Rangers every day. Just compare Pedroia's 2 HRs to Ian Kinsler's 18 HRs. I suspect there's an army of Red Sox fanboys stuffing the ballot box. Ian Kinsler needs your vote to counteract them. You can vote up to 25 times online.

vote.mlb.com/

2) As I continue to spew units on the Rangers, I have been doing research to diversify my betting portfolio. The Texas Rangers 2½ System focuses on the team with the most explosive hitters in baseball. Well, hitting is only half of the game of baseball (and some experts have estimated that pitching is actually about 80% of the game). I am researching a new 2½ system that lays the 2½ against specific pitchers who have a tendency to collapse (i.e., they may not lose every game, but when they lose they will lose big).

This is the thread that keeps on giving

Updated YTD: 22-55, +1.28 units, 95.4 units wagered, +1.3% ROI

I counted 5 Home-Runs in the Rangers game yesterday, but after a while it got hard to keep track of them all. Is it possible for a major-league baseball team to be *too* reliant on the home-run? In baseball, perhaps. But not when gambling laying 2½ runs on them! We perfectly handicapped Saunders struggles in Arlington. Hopefully yesterday's game was a slump buster and will start to build some momentum behind the Rangers bats. As the Rangers manager said, "I hope tonight is the night we get back to playing Texas Rangers baseball!"

Wednesday (1 Play)
1 Unit on Texas Rangers -2½ +305 (5Dimes)

perfect handicapping itt