Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG
I am really looking forward to tomorrow's game against the Yankees. The Rangers are back home and it's going to be sold out. That means over 45,000 Rangers fans in attendance.
More importantly, you've got a Yankee pitcher that can be knocked around.
Hughes is starting, and after a great debut against Det. early in the year, he hasn't had a quality start since.
In his last four starts:
4 IP, 7 H, 3 ER
1.2 IP, 8 H, 8 ER
5 IP, 6H, 3 ER
5 IP, 6H 3 ER (though he had nine! Ks in this game, his last start).
Hitters are feasting on him at a .326 clip so far this season.
Plus, in every single start this year, he has gotten more fly ball outs than ground ball outs. In the five game started this year: (6 GB, 8FB/3&13/6&7/7&11/5&6).
Since your strategy involves winning those game the Rangers go deep, hopefully with men on, this is exactly the type of pitcher you want, one that has the ball in the air a lot.
And if Hughes gets in trouble early, we get into the Yankee bullpen. Theoretically, if they are a couple three runs down, they will need a semi-long man, and they won't bring in their best trailing. Of the Yankee top relivers in innings pitched:
Take your pick: (Rivera has 2nd most reliever innings, clearly not to be considered here)
Albaladejo 21 IP, 24H, 16 R, 14 ER, 6.00 ERA
Coke 19.1 IP, 15H, 12 R, 9 ER, 4.19 ERA
Veras 19.1 IP, 15H, 12 R, 12 ER, 5.59 ERA
Ramirez 17.1 IP, 18H, 11R, 10ER, 5.19 ERA
My point here, and others as well, is that if you continue betting every single game one unit, you will have a hard time staying ahead of the game.
Finding a play that has value, like against Contreras, and here, against a hot Yankee team where you should get a decent price, is how you will stay in the black.
Good luck. Go Texas!
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