Need to focus. Like unluckyboy said, no getting side tracked betting singles on womens sports.

YTD: 3-2 +325

I offered TomG the opportunity to retake control of this large operation, but with a wife and two kids on the way he said he just doesn't have it in him any more. But I've come to the conclusion that the best TEAM is no team at all, so no hard feelings. I stare steadily into the middle distance and push onward.

YTD: 3-3 -675

"Will you walk into my parlour?" said the Spider to the Fly

"The itsy bitsy spider climbed up the water spout. Down came the Goblin and took the spider out."

Yeah I would've bet that, only they don't seem to want my action.

i was archiving some data and decided to check on results of -2.5 since 5/15

Home: 10-16 Net: +0.76u
Away: 7-15 Net: -1.63u

Thx for that

if you take out yesterday tho

H:10-15 Net: +1.76
V:7-15 Net: -1.63u

things bout to heat up in texas tho so maybe increase home bets because of humidity and density of baseballs

i ran it for every team. maybe fade seattle and phillies on -2.5 thread? or ari at home -2.5? these lines are closing ones from pinny

ANA
Home: 7-15 Net: 47
Away: 9-16 Net: 21
ARI
Home: 19-28 Net: 515
Away: 6-18 Net: -1356
ATL
Home: 13-39 Net: -1736
Away: 4-15 Net: -1500
BAL
Home: 5-18 Net: -1050
Away: 1-23 Net: -2070
BOS
Home: 10-37 Net: -2174
Away: 6-18 Net: -1192
CHA
Home: 15-34 Net: -1093
Away: 7-14 Net: -1047
CHN
Home: 12-29 Net: -2002
Away: 5-22 Net: -1799
CIN
Home: 11-38 Net: -2403
Away: 9-17 Net: -862
CLE
Home: 15-35 Net: -1980
Away: 7-16 Net: -1393
COL
Home: 5-20 Net: -804
Away: 6-17 Net: -1104
DET
Home: 6-15 Net: -397
Away: 7-20 Net: -1618
HOU
Home: 6-18 Net: -1240
Away: 2-22 Net: -1811
KCA
Home: 3-17 Net: -1451
Away: 6-20 Net: -1355
LAN
Home: 12-38 Net: -2549
Away: 7-18 Net: -1366
MIA
Home: 13-41 Net: -2455
Away: 3-15 Net: -1271
MIL
Home: 10-33 Net: -1787
Away: 6-16 Net: -960
MIN
Home: 11-33 Net: -2139
Away: 6-18 Net: -1219
NYA
Home: 8-14 Net: 266
Away: 7-17 Net: -772
NYN
Home: 17-33 Net: -1176
Away: 6-16 Net: -991
OAK
Home: 13-31 Net: -1951
Away: 4-21 Net: -1788
PHI
Home: 7-42 Net: -3550
Away: 7-17 Net: -1105
PIT
Home: 14-32 Net: -1295
Away: 7-18 Net: -1571
SDN
Home: 2-16 Net: -1292
Away: 8-22 Net: -1199
SFN
Home: 13-34 Net: -1647
Away: 2-20 Net: -1814
SLN
Home: 9-37 Net: -2391
Away: 7-17 Net: -723
TBA
Home: 7-20 Net: -490
Away: 4-16 Net: -1349
TEX
Home: 14-31 Net: -1173
Away: 7-15 Net: -163
TOR
Home: 11-15 Net: 48
Away: 7-14 Net: -778
WAS
Home: 12-30 Net: -1355
Away: 10-15 Net: -547

Even though rsigley generally just spews a bunch of nonsense, I think he was actually onto something when he started questioning whether Pinnacle is going bankrupt. I have evidence which leads me to believe they are in fact monitoring my Internet activity and frontrunning all of my bets. This privacy invasion, along with my aspirations -- albeit fading -- to be the next Henry17, was the impetus for my ongoing NoFap challenge. In the words of the late, great Benjamin Franklin: "He who sacrifices freedom for security deserves neither."

Exhibit A (bet was promptly denied due to a line change):



YTD 3-4 -1175

oh nonsense that always seem to become reality

crazy how that happens

Score one for the good guys. Pinnacle screwed themselves over this time

0-1

CHASE?

RIGS YOU KNOW SYSTEMS HAVE TO BE MANIPULATED...THE NEW RANGERS -2.5 SYSTEM IS OBVVVVV BOTH LA TEAMS.

stop bein' dumb.

2-3 now

Bump. I realize this experiment died, but I was bored at work today and had a question about it: are the -2.5 prices derived from MLs (ex. all +110/-120 matchups have the favorite as -2.5 +260ish), or are they heavily skewed for each matchup? I assume it's the latter, but I just got to thinking about how certain -2.5 prices might be decent plays when sinkerballers who prevent HRs (Hudson, Fister, etc.) are facing extreme flyball pitchers who are prone to gopherballs (Milone, Hughes, etc.). I'm sure the books adjust for this in some way, I'm just wondering if anyone has tested it.

YTD: 0-1, -100% ROI

One place to start is home and away. If two teams are even on the moneyline, the away team more likely to cover -2.5 than the home team is to cover -2.5 due to walkoffs.

we should have never abandoned this system

versus closing lines
2016:

Home: 24-57 +6.18u
Away: 23-58 +6.97u

2017:
Home: 29-52-0 +15.13u
Away: 19-62 -0.21u

2018:
Home: 7-22-0 (24.14%) 4.3u
Away: 7-25 (21.88%) -2.67u

versus opening lines was slightly worse but still profitable

actually i think the issue is Pinny is just bad at setting the lines since you could just blindly bet both teams -2.5 since 2016 and win ~53 units. Games probably don't add up correctly for each team due to late pitching scratches voiding action

ANA
Home: 46-148-0 (23.71%) -22.28u
Away: 56-131 (29.95%) 36.01u
ARI
Home: 56-137-0 (29.02%) 5.02u
Away: 47-144 (24.61%) -5.38u
ATL
Home: 41-144-0 (22.16%) 0.32u
Away: 48-141 (25.4%) 57.71u
BAL
Home: 45-138-0 (24.59%) -23.46u
Away: 45-143 (23.94%) -16.49u
BOS
Home: 72-116-0 (38.3%) 22.24u
Away: 66-125 (34.55%) 19.51u
CHA
Home: 50-134-0 (27.17%) 27.95u
Away: 34-154 (18.09%) -46.14u
CHN
Home: 69-114-0 (37.7%) 2.97u
Away: 72-121 (37.31%) 12.88u
CIN
Home: 48-139-0 (25.67%) 18.17u
Away: 44-146 (23.16%) 11.05u
CLE
Home: 68-119-0 (36.36%) 8.19u
Away: 68-116 (36.96%) 14.07u
COL
Home: 65-119-0 (35.33%) 33.55u
Away: 49-143 (25.52%) 18.98u
DET
Home: 52-133-0 (28.11%) 18.9u
Away: 44-141 (23.78%) -14.53u
HOU
Home: 63-136-0 (31.66%) -6.51u
Away: 69-126 (35.38%) 13.16u
KCA
Home: 42-143-0 (22.7%) -20.07u
Away: 47-140 (25.13%) 1.39u
LAN
Home: 75-125-0 (37.5%) 14.36u
Away: 64-127 (33.51%) -0.87u
MIA
Home: 51-135-0 (27.42%) 15.35u
Away: 45-146 (23.56%) 1.72u
MIL
Home: 43-143-0 (23.12%) -23.75u
Away: 47-145 (24.48%) 0.71u
MIN
Home: 38-145-0 (20.77%) -35.93u
Away: 53-135 (28.19%) 37.48u
NYA
Home: 75-116-0 (39.27%) 40.23u
Away: 57-135 (29.69%) 3.79u
NYN
Home: 42-144-0 (22.58%) -39.5u
Away: 43-141 (23.37%) -35.02u
OAK
Home: 41-146-0 (21.93%) -14.85u
Away: 45-146 (23.56%) -13.91u
PHI
Home: 48-139-0 (25.67%) 15.84u
Away: 40-150 (21.05%) 3.36u
PIT
Home: 48-141-0 (25.4%) -4.69u
Away: 47-137 (25.54%) 0.12u
SDN
Home: 56-141-0 (28.43%) 60.05u
Away: 37-147 (20.11%) -5.2u
SFN
Home: 49-139-0 (26.06%) -3.65u
Away: 36-155 (18.85%) -62.83u
SLN
Home: 44-141-0 (23.78%) -46.27u
Away: 67-119 (36.02%) 41.9u
TBA
Home: 47-133-0 (26.11%) 4.56u
Away: 41-152 (21.24%) -24.31u
TEX
Home: 59-132-0 (30.89%) 24.61u
Away: 48-143 (25.13%) 4.09u
TOR
Home: 51-140-0 (26.7%) -27.95u
Away: 46-141 (24.6%) -27.1u
WAS
Home: 55-128-0 (30.05%) -18.46u
Away: 64-129 (33.16%) 3.16u
Total Home:
1539-3908 +24.94u
Total Away:
1469-4019 +29.31u

lol@anyone who followed this

cant believe people still bet like this

reminds me of those x team hasnt lost 3 times in a row in ages threads

almost like something in 2016 wacked up the scoring distribution or something

MLB insists the ball isn't juiced.

So you could actually just blindly bet yankees at home -2.5...that seems ridiculous

Awesomeness