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Old 09-05-2009, 04:28 PM   #176
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

5 September

Wager Type : WTA fav ML

US Open 2009 R3


Start time :after Soderling vs Querrey match

Shahar Peer vs Svetlana Kuznetsova

My pick is Svetlana Kuznetsova to win

Odds : - 245


Where : pinnaclesports

12.25 units to win 5 units
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Old 09-05-2009, 05:17 PM   #177
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Awesome victory for Oudin over Sharapova , Isner vs Roddick will start soon .
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Old 09-05-2009, 07:05 PM   #178
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

If Isner wins this I know someone that's going to be in deep ****. Anyone else here in a similar spot here?
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Old 09-05-2009, 09:06 PM   #179
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Not really... nobody here dumb enough to fade that serve on a hardcourt with those odds.
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Old 09-05-2009, 09:24 PM   #180
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

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Originally Posted by loosekanen View Post
Not really... nobody here dumb enough to fade that serve on a hardcourt with those odds.
this

I don't know how anybody can bet on - 1100 odds in a 60:40 match . Great win for big John , didn't like his chance going into the 5th set but strong play by him .
Blake vs Robredo should be fun .
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Old 09-05-2009, 09:25 PM   #181
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by bryon nicon View Post
If Isner wins this I know someone that's going to be in deep ****. Anyone else here in a similar spot here?
Looks like somebody's gonna be losing some fingers!
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Old 09-05-2009, 10:22 PM   #182
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Time to bet on Safina , 1-2* down , 1.55 in-play .
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Old 09-06-2009, 04:12 AM   #183
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Who's everyone's pick in the Berdych v Gonzalez match?
Was thinking about taking Berdych as he's had the best of the recent battles and likes the hard surface, thought i'd mention it here first tho as I'm a noob at tennis betting lol.
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Old 09-06-2009, 11:23 AM   #184
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

i've finally around the computer at the right time and ready to bet tennis....

don't see anything i like that much. i need a happyguy pick FYI, going with own pick. venus +100 over clijsters. would have gone gonzo over berdych but he's priced as a reasonable favorite
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Old 09-06-2009, 12:17 PM   #185
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Just woke up and it's 6 pm here , this is what watching tennis at night does to one
So I see there are few matches in around 50 minutes :
Nadal should kill Almagro
Berdych vs Gonzalez :both are not very mentally stable , I would think Gonzalez wins this becase Berdych struggled against 2 weak opponents in general Gonzalez is a slightly better player , odds seem right here , maybe over 40.5 total games would be the better play here , I see atleast one tiebreak here so we would need 28 more games which can be done with 6-4 3-6 6-3 four set type of match .
Li vs Schiavone : another 55/45 match , this should be very close , Li is the better player on hardcourts and Schiavone wasn't too impressive in the previous round , was more the case of Azarenka beating herself than Schiavone beating her , once again I would probably prefer over 21.5 games at - 105 .

Gonna check the rest of the card for matches in 3 hours and later for picks .
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Old 09-06-2009, 01:46 PM   #186
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

6 September

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

US Open 2009 R3

Start time :01:00 PM PST ( 2+ hours )

Daniel Koellerer vs Juan Martin Del Potro

My pick is UNDER 29 GAMES

Odds : 1.833

Where : sportingbet

5 units to win 4.16 units


Del Potro should crush this clown , 3-0 is close to a lock so 6-4 6-4 6-3 would get a push , I don't think it will be that close , some set surely will end 6-(0,1 or 2) .
At the end of the match Del Potro should pull this one on Koellerer

Oscar Hernandez celebrating his win over Koellerer

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vfqp8QEsrds

That made me LOL .
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Old 09-06-2009, 02:20 PM   #187
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Tsonga + Monfils + Del Potro parlay around - 200 looks solid

Cant remember last time Venus was the underdog against anybody but her sister , seems like a trap , perfect spot for Venus to shine and beat Kim .

Zvonareva vs Pennetta : no bet . Line seems to be right considering their form at the moment .
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Old 09-06-2009, 05:37 PM   #188
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Adding 2 final picks for today , those have been money so far :


6 September

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

US Open 2009 R3

Start time : 03:15 PM PST

Gael Monfils vs Jose Acasuso

My pick is OVER 9.5 GAMES FIRST SET

Odds : 1.70

Where : unibet

5 units to win 3.5 units



6 September

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

US Open 2009 R3

Start time : 05:45 PM PST

Taylor Dent vs Andy Murray

My pick is OVER 9.5 GAMES FIRST SET

Odds : 1.80 and 2.00

Where : unibet and paddypower

5 units to win 4 units and 1.5 to win 1.5 = combined 6.5 units to win 5.5 units
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Old 09-06-2009, 05:39 PM   #189
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Bookies still very confident in Cilic offering + 105 on Istomin to take a set against him even after Cilic has dropped his first 2 sets against Levine in the last match , def worth a bite , Istomin can serve big and Cilic can play like a real clown and drop sets .
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Old 09-06-2009, 05:46 PM   #190
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

6 September

Wager Type : ATP Set Betting

US Open 2009 R3

Start time : 03:00 PM PST

Marin Cilic vs Denis Istomin

My pick is NOT MARIN CILIC 3-0 SETS , ISTOMIN TO WIN A SET

Odds : + 104

Where : pinnaclesports

5 units to win 5.2 units


Aight , that's it . I see bookies have already opened the lines for tomorrow's matches , gonna handicap them now .
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Old 09-06-2009, 06:04 PM   #191
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

If anybody wants to sweat a high odds play tonight Murray vs Dent first set correct score 7-6 each way can be tried with small stake IMO , 8.00 odds on Murray and 20.00 on Dent !
I think Dent can keep it close in the first set while he is still fresh and Murray tends to start slow in some matches .
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Old 09-06-2009, 07:22 PM   #192
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Nadal jumped to 9/1 on betfair because of the stomach cramps or w.e. he's got. I'm thinking of playing this since he's "already" in the quarters, thoughts on this?
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Old 09-06-2009, 07:31 PM   #193
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

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Originally Posted by LasFuentes View Post
Nadal jumped to 9/1 on betfair because of the stomach cramps or w.e. he's got. I'm thinking of playing this since he's "already" in the quarters, thoughts on this?
Don't waste your money IMO , if Monfils doesn't have a brainfart he will take him out , even if he doesn't I don't like Nadal's chances vs Murray or Del Potro at all .
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Old 09-06-2009, 07:51 PM   #194
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Hmm, I don't think there's a way for Monfils to beat Nadal unless he retires or something. With Del Potro playing Murray there's a big chance that it's going to be a trying match for both parties and Nadal might be ok by then (or withdrawn lol). So if all goes well he only has to worry about Murray and Federer and 9/1 seems enticing. It's only right with Nadal denying Federer's 6th straight again, no?
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Old 09-06-2009, 09:07 PM   #195
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by LasFuentes View Post
Hmm, I don't think there's a way for Monfils to beat Nadal unless he retires or something. With Del Potro playing Murray there's a big chance that it's going to be a trying match for both parties and Nadal might be ok by then (or withdrawn lol). So if all goes well he only has to worry about Murray and Federer and 9/1 seems enticing. It's only right with Nadal denying Federer's 6th straight again, no?
Did you watch Monfils today?? He's playing great tennis. The "If all goes well" comment is deceiving. There IS a chance he loses to an in form Monfils and it's a good one. However, I will indulge you:

To get 9/1 on a 3 play parlay you would need, for example, (an admittedly under the weather Nadal) to receive -300 against Monfils, then +150 against Murray and +200 against Fed.

These lines, that you would need, are skewed WAY toward Rafa. Even healthy I don't think he's that good. However, if you have a wild hair up your ass feel free to bet him to the moon. I just disagree there is any value in it.


Also, this thread has gotten away from HappyGuy dropping tennis knowledge bombs on us. Let's let his current dominance be and stop derailing his thread. He's making a few of us some really good money.
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Old 09-06-2009, 10:17 PM   #196
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Already counting Dent play as a loss after seeing his first serve game , all losses today .
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Old 09-07-2009, 05:00 AM   #197
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

After 3-0 yesterday another sweep today but a negative one .
Del Potro loses 2nd set after winning first one easily 6-1 he goes 2-0 break up and had 4 gamepoints for 3-0 lead , gets broken on the first one but breaks back once again . From 3-1 up he loses 5 games in a row ! But of course wins 3rd and 4th sets 6-3 without much trouble , both Koeller and Del Potro most have made good coin on this set loss .


Judge for yourself , I've underlined all suspect things in this 2nd set and Koellerer is known for ''fixed'' matches . 4 breakpoints faced and broken on every single one in 1 set , hasnt happened to Del Potro in his whole life .


Both over 9.5 games first set lost , both have ended 6-3 for the favorite , neither of the two got to serve first to start the match . Acasuso never really had a chance but Dent went 30-15 at 3-4 down and lost 3 points in a row to get broken .
Bad call on Istomin , wasn't close in any set .

Last 2 days : 3-4 -7.56 units


Posted Record : 46-20 +81.97 units





Career doubles records : Tipsarevic 13-31 + Kendrick 27-36

Nestor and Zimonjic are # 1 doubles team at the moment and I dont see any real weakness in their game , they can lose to some team that runs very hot but Kendrick and Tipsy aren't real doubles players and there will be too many errors in their game against a regular team and as experienced as Nestor and Zimonjic , easy pick for parlays .


Career doubles records : Lu 17-26 + Sela 5-13

Bhupathi and Knowles another strong doubles team against two players that are very bad in doubles , both are very short and not strong enough at the net . Another easy deal for parlays .

This year doubles record : Niculescu 25 - 17 + King 20 - 13

Spanish duo this year : 48 - 11 and 45 - 12

Also there is a H2H match here from just 2 weeks ago , 6-1 7-5 win for spanish women . Nuria Llagostera Vives/Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez # 2 doubles team at the moment and on 11-0 run coming in here with 2 tournament victories in a row , last 6 matches have all been 2:0 set wins , 20-3 in their last hardcourt matches !
They are playing too well to let this one slip but this is closest leg of the 3 in that parlay , both men matches should be easy winners , maybe hedge this one after both men matches finish ( if winners ) .

In previous parlay from 2 days ago all 3 teams won 2:0 sets , lets hope for the best .
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Old 09-07-2009, 06:46 AM   #198
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

7 September

Wager Type : ATP Doubles

US Open Men's Doubles Championship

Start time : 11:00AM (EST)

L.Friedl/J.Levinsky vs C.Ball/C.Guccione

My pick is C.Ball/C.Guccione to win

Odds : 1.75


Where : unibet

5 units to win 3.75 units


Ball and Guccione both have huge serves and should prevail here , if it's close I always like their chances to win in tiebreaks . Friedl and Levinsky both lower level doubles players that like clay courts and not hard .


7 September

Wager Type : WTA fav ML

US Open Men's Doubles Championship

Start time : 11:00AM (EST)

Gisela Dulko vs Kateryna Bondarenko

My pick is Kateryna Bondarenko to win

Odds : - 120


Where : 5dimes

6 units to win 5 units


I like Kateryna's chances here but this could be close , neither have made it that far in Grand Slams so whoever deals best with the pressure will win . Dulko isn't as good on hardcourts and had a cake draw considering Shvedova laid an egg after her win over Jankovic and couldnt back it up against Dulko other two opponents have been easy for Dulko but her form prior to that tournament was more than questionable losing to Schnyder 4-6 0-6 ! , Niculescu and Vesnina . Kateryna on the other hand came here with wins over Rybarikova, straight sets win over Wickmayer who is still in the draw as well and win over Venus Williams , at US Open solid win was over Ivanovic and Rodionova .
I would probably take her up to - 140 , she was in better form prior to the tournament and in general should be the better player on hardcourt . Kateryna's sister Alona has lost to Dulko here so they should know better this time how to deal with her .



Davydenko vs Soderling : no bet . Slight value on Davydenko at 2.40 I believe but cant trust him , this guy is either close to brilliant or plays like a clown , I will skip , maybe in-play betting when I wake up .

Going to bed , probably wake up in around 5 hours .
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Old 09-07-2009, 12:26 PM   #199
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

congrats sir . . . today's plays were even better than usual and that is saying something
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Old 09-07-2009, 01:59 PM   #200
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Nothing better than to wake up and see - 120 play has won 6-0 6-0 in 47 in minutes LOL

I like John Isner to win the first set over Verdasco at + 160 or Verdasco to win the first set 7-6 at + 400 . It's tough to return Isner's serve in the first sets when he is still fresh and I cant see Verdasco breaking him early but there is a chance Verdasco can win it on the tiebreak .
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