Thanks for your insight...have added a few of your plays to my bridgejumpers and a few leans I've had in betting the US Open heavily. tyty

2 September

Wager Type : WTA fav ML

US Open 2009 R2

Start time :12:00 PM PST

Stefanie Voegele vs Francesca Schiavone

My pick is Francesca Schiavone to win

Odds : - 300

Where : pinnaclesports

9 units to win 3 units


Voegele is unforced errors machine , once she meets somebody who is just trying to keep the ball in play and force her to play one extra shot ball starts flying all over the place in most cases missing the court by a big margin .
Schiavone is a very experienced player and should be able to take advantage of the young opponent . Errani vs Voegele is a good example for me from 4 weeks ago where Errani did nothing but got the ball back to Voegele and the youngster killed herself with all the unforced errors 1:6 2:6 . Another italian also got close with Voegele in the first round but wasn't able to win the match after taking the first set in the tiebreak . If Schiavone didn't forget how to play tennis she should prevail here with her experience .

Today : 2-0 +6.63 units

Posted Record : 38-14 +74.80 units


3 September

Wager Type : ATP fav ML

US Open 2009 R2

Start time :11:00 AM PST

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Tommy Robredo

My pick is Tommy Robredo to win

Odds : - 190

Where : pinnaclesports

19 units to win 10 units


Like this one a lot , people love to hate Robredo for no reason but fact is that this guy even tho without any real weapons has 20-9 US Open record and 77-38 record in Grand Slams all time compared to 24-23 of GGL and 3-5 at US Open with 1-1 of those matches being Qualifying rounds , has lost to likes of Horna , Kunitsyn , Ginepri and Seppi . Horna and Seppi being clay court players just like Robredo .
In the first round GGL almost blew 2-0 sets lead to Polansky from Canada who managed to win third and fourth sets before running out of gas and going down 1-6 in the deciding set . Robredo didn't have much trouble with Doland Young however he has dropped a set .



Very strong numbers for Robredo in his first round match , Young is on the same level with Polansky so both Robredo and GGL had similar level opponent . Both GGL and Polansky had insane amount of breakpoints , Polansky was able to get 22 breakpoints in just 24 service games ! Also what stands out here is that GGL has made 18 double faults , thats his 2nd straight match with double figures amount of double faults , just last week he had 11 double faults in New Haven in his 2-6 2-6 loss to Lu : he allowed 10 breakpoints in 8 service games and made 11 DFs .

Robredo struggles against aggressive players with big power but GGL does not really fit into this category . Both players prefer clay courts but Robredo even tho probably not in his prime anymore is the better player of the two . 226-93 70.85% Robredo vs 116-90 56.31% GGL on clay courts and 32-18 64.00% vs 25-25 50% in their last 50 matches .

Robredo might drop a set but I count on him to prevail here , GGL is not a dangerous matchup for him and Tommy should be the better player on hardcourts . Robredo grinds down people like GGL and he is a fighter who wont give up easily .

good call on almagro.

made some money on him at 1.3.

i like tennis and have bet many times in the past but did very poorly so i really appreciate your insight

+1

so far i've followed your advice twice and won twice.

Have only just started to follow tennis this year and hjaving someone like you to guide me is wicked bro.

Thank you very much kind sir.

+1

Keep it up and thank you!

3 September

Wager Type : WTA fav ML

US Open 2009 R2

Start time :12:00 PM PST

Sara Errani vs Patty Schnyder

My pick is Patty Schnyder to win

Odds : - 160

Where : pinnaclesports

16 units to win 10 units


Seems too good to be true but I will try anyway . Errani has no business being so close with Patty on hardcourts . Errani is straight up pathetic player , one of the worst out there with no weapons at all just waiting for an error with her moonball tactics , horrible serve as well , being 5'4 doesn't help much . H2H is 1:0 for Patty 6-2 6-3 in may this year on Errani's favorite surface , where Patty was able to get 11 breakpoints compared to just 3 of Errani . Patty is a left hander and tricky to play against . In my opinion there is a big level difference between those two especially when it comes to hardcourts , odds make no sense to me at all but I will take a bite .

Jankovic 1.40 in-play on betfair seems like a good deal , Shvedova playing out of her mind at the moment , this will stop very soon I believe .

http://atdhe.net/watch-us-open.php?i=1

Match here ^^^

Spot on. To quote NBA Jam.... HE'S ON FIIIIRE!!!

again, another solid pick on robredo.

keep them coming!!

Pathetic , insane amount of unforced errors against someone like Errani . Schnyder was 1-5 two breaks down in the first , got to 5-5 and had 40-15 for 6-5 lead just to lose 4 points in a row and it wasn't close after this .

Blacklist



2nd added , Ivo Karlovic , Patty Schnyder .

Never again , brutal ''performance'' .

Atleast Robredo has won like he should .


Posted Record : 39-15 +68.80 units


4 September

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

US Open 2009 R2

Start time :08:15 AM PST

Marin Cilic vs Jesse Levine

My pick is OVER 33.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.86

Where : unibet

10 units to win 8.6 units


Pinnaclesports has this set at 36 games at same price , 5dimes will probably open at 36 as well .
Cilic is in bad form and makes a lot of unforced errors , he will probably find a way to beat Levine because there is still some class difference between them but not easy , I count on Levine to take atleast 1 set here but even if he doesn't there is still a chance to cover this line in 3 close sets . Cilic did beat Sweeting in the first round in 3 sets but it was 7-6 6-4 7-6 for a total of 36 games . Levine is atleast on same level with Sweeting and should be able to steal a set , Cilic is known for losing sets out of nowhere and his form isn't impressive .

4 September

Wager Type : WTA Total Games

US Open 2009 R3

Start time :08:15 AM PST

Daniela Hantuchova vs Vania King

My pick is OVER 20.5 GAMES

Odds : - 111 & 1.86

Where : pinnaclesports & unibet

Combined 5.77 units to win 5.08 units


Interesting fact : Hantuchova is - 260 favorite to win this match and her last 8 wins have been 2:1 set victories , both matches here went to 3 sets , 3 wins in Cinci , 1 in LA and 2 in Stanford . When she wins it's always a struggle with a lot of breaks and rebreaks . Vania surprised all beating heavy favored Sam Stosur in the previous round and she should be able to keep it close here as well . Considering we would have cashed this over line 8 times in a row in all Hantuchova's recent victories I will give it a try here .

King lost 2-6 2-6 , Hantuchova way too good , close to no errors .
Cilic lost first two sets but won the third 6-0 and leads 4-3* now , over is in unless one of them retires then it's a void .

4 September

Wager Type : ATP Games Handicap

US Open 2009 R2

Start time :12:30 PM PST ( in 2+ hours )

David Ferrer vs Jose Acasuso

My pick is Jose Acasuso + 5 GAMES

Odds : 1.75

Where : expekt

10 units to win 7.5 units


One of the largest plays recently ( laying 3-0 sets Ferrer 1.50 and moneyline 3.30 on Acasuso for in-play betting ) , not only should Acasuso keep it close today but I believe he will win this 3-1 sets .

4 September

Wager Type : ATP Doubles

US Open Men's Doubles Championship

Start time :5:30PM (EST) ( in 4+ hours )

M.Gicquel/F.Santoro vs W.Moodie/D.Norman

My pick is W.Moodie/D.Norman to win

Odds : - 160 and 1.55

Where : 5dimes and betandwin ( on bwin + B.Bryan/M.Bryan -> 1.02 odds in the parlay because of lower limit on non parlays )

4 units to win 2.5 units and 5 units to win 2.9 units = combined 9 units to win 5.4 units

Way too much power for short and old man Santoro and his partner . Also first time partnering up for Santoro and Gicquel . Santoro is solid doubles players with good variety in his game but lacks power now at his age . Gicquel is not a good doubles player at all , also Moodie and Norman already played against Gicquel + another partner twice on clay and grass winning in straight sets easily both times .
Norman and Moodie both with very big serves , will win over 80% on their first delivery and should get their chances to break .

4 September

Wager Type : ATP Set Betting

US Open 2009 R2

Start time :12:30 PM PST ( in 2+ hours )

David Ferrer vs Jose Acasuso

My pick is NOT DAVID FERRER 3-0 SETS

Odds : LAY 3.00 ( 1.50 )

Where : betfair

10.5 units to win 5 units ( 0.5 more cuz of commission )


That's it for today , Monfils over Beck seems like a safe deal at 1.17 , Kim Clijsters 1.05 and Nadal 1.04 for a mug parlay .

Thanks for your plays HappyGuy. You are delivering big time. Go Acususo!

HappyGuy, loving your picks. thank you.

you ever pick underdogs though??

yeah, my general thought too. although i wasn't sure if it was because i can't access my betting site at work, so i don't pay attention to the picks until late in the day. thought it might be europe vs. USA time zone thing or something too.

Looking at Querrey and Robredo to win tomorrow both at a dog's price.

didn't realize i was responding to an old entry

Nice try sir, but I think it took him 5 sets to win.

On a more serious note, +1.

Have a question. I have been blindly following your plays as you seem very good or on fire but I know nothing about betting tennis. Never bet more than 1/2 of 1 % of BR on blindly followed plays so not that big of a deal, but how much room in the odds you get would still make your plays good plays? I ask because my tennis options are 5dimes (which offers the equivalent of -115 lines which is significantly worse than you usually get) or matchbook which has limited liquidity sometimes. Also, you always seem right so lines tend to move against you if wagers are not placed quickly after posts.

Again thanks for continuing to post winners.

Today : 4-1 +20.73 units

Posted Record : 43-16 +89.53 units

Recap :

Was worried for Cilic to lose in straight sets being - 650 favorite and + 2000 for Levine to win 3-0 sets , managed to come back from 0-2 sets down and win easily in the end , over hits .

King was never close with Hantuchova , perfect play for Daniela .

Moodie and Norman won in a close one 7-6 7-6 and Bryans won in straight sets .

Acasuso won in a close one 3-2 sets , both + 5 games handicap and not 3-0 sets Ferrer cashed .


Underdogs only for trading during the match , I think picking underdogs is very tough in sports like mixed martial arts or tennis , it would be a real grind with few dollars +/- every month . I know some people who do it in tennis and they cant even withdraw $100/every month out of their account not to speak about making a living off it . People bet on heavy - 300 favorites in mixed martial arts with much higher outcome varience than tennis , I think it's all about the confidence in the pick not the odds , of course there is no point betting on very low odds , I wont go on anything under 1.30 odds . Here are good examples from today's matches : Petzschner ( 4.00 ) , Levine ( 6.00 ) and Navarro ( 2.78 ) . Petzschner was as low as 1.09 at one point during the match , Levine 1.15 and Navarro was around 1.30 mark if not lower but what do they have in common ? All 3 of them kept it close but lost so at the end of the day you would be still 3u short betting 1u on each . Out of 16 men matches today only 2 legit underdogs have won : Koellerer 3.00 dog - no logic at all to pick him over Cuevas on hardcourt , ended up to be a huge public play and easy win for Koellerer , also Acasuso was 3.30+ underdog against Ferrer and this was one of the best plays on the board today . Ferrer doesn't like this surface and his overall form is not very promising , Acasuso had big power advantage over him on hardcourts and as long as he kept his unforced errors count within acceptable numbers he should be the winner of the match which is what happened here .

Pinnaclesports , which is one of the first bookies to post total/handicap games lines opens them around 3-4 hours before first matches start . Moneyline bets I usually try to post early but those I am not able to bet in advance as they open them up very late . They also have $250 win limit on those as they open up and I have to wait close to an hour for them to increase it to $500 , unless I want to give up some juice betting twice on adjusted odds .

On first look I prefer Sam over Soderling than Robredo over Blake , didn't like what I saw from Robredo against GGL but Blake is in horrible form so anything is possible here , James might just hit through him all day .

Pinnaclesports definitely has the best lines out there and I am aware that they dont allow US customers anymore . I've just checked my last 20 games handicap and total games plays are 16-4 with worst line being - 140 once and around ~ - 120 average . I would definitely still lay up to - 10 more juice on total/handicap games plays because bookies seem to be less accurate with those than moneylines .

Can you put in scope how well you are running right now? Surely your edge isn't this large.

Wont be surprised if all end up at - 500 or higher closer to start time .

Career doubles records : Levine 7-13 + Sweeting 5-8 vs Knowles 682-327 / 52 titles + Bhupathi 552-270 / 45 titles .
Both Knowles and Bhupathi formers winners here : Knowles 2004 with Nestor and Bhupathi 2002 with Mirnyi .
Levine got knocked out in singles yesterday after 2-0 sets lead against Cilic , I haven't seen him play doubles but don't think he is very suited being short and not getting a lot of 1st serves in , Sweeting is nothing special as well .
If Bhupathi or Knowles don't break their legs this should be a 2-0 sets win.

Career doubles records : Almagro 29-53 + Ramirez Hidalgo 24-57 vs Dlouhy 119-74 + Paes 518-271 ( 1999 runner up , 2004 runner up , 2006 winner , 2008 runner up with Dlouhy ) .

Almagro had a very tough singles match yesterday and his legs were hurting , received medical timeout . Hidalgo is no big deal in singles or doubles . Almagro should focus on his singles match against Nadal on Sunday . Both spaniards with very mediocre doubles records .
Watched Paes and Dlouhy play a lot of times , there is are few weaknesses in their game but I don't think it's a team that can take advantage of it . Also they've made the finals here last year losing to Bryan brothers 6-7 6-7 , surface should suit them and it's time for Hidalgo to get in the next challenger tournament on monday while Almagro has to save energy for his upcoming defeat against Nadal .


Both Stosur and Stubbs are former champions here : Stosur with Raymond in 2005 and Stubbs with Raymond as well but 2001 , also Stosur was runner up here last year with Lisa Raymond once again .
Career doubles records :Hradecka 204 - 81 + Hlavackova 147 - 80 vs Stubbs 769 - 330 + Stosur 307 - 135 .
Hradecka and Hlavackova have good looking records on paper but those are from challenger and ITF level tournaments . Stosur and Stubbs are on another level and should win this match without much trouble .

5 September

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

US Open 2009 R3

Start time :11:30 AM PST ( aka in 90 minutes but probably more like 3 hours because Federer vs Hewitt still have to play atleast 1 set and then Sharapova vs Oudin on this court )

John Isner vs Andy Roddick

My pick is OVER 9.5 GAMES FIRST SET

Odds : 1.58

Where : unibet

5 units to win 2.9 units


High percentage play here , 2 massive servers against each other . Month ago first set between them ended 7-6 for Isner and I see another 7-6 first set here going either way . Roddick's last 4 matches against opponents with good serve have ended : 6-7 , 6-4 , 6-4 , 7-6 . Isner also had two 7-6 first sets in his last matches against good opponents : Haas and Chardy . Everything speaks for another tiebreak here and over 9.5 games being very safe in case of a 6-4 set .

See no reason at all for Cirstea being such a big underdog , especially + 5 on games handicap - 115 , 3-6 4-6 loss would still get a push . Wozniacki is slightly better on hardcourts but not really 5 games better . One month ago Cirstea beat her 2:1 in LA and now she is 3.92 underdog , makes no sense . They are good friends , also playing doubles together here so I guess it could be possible that Cirstea lets Wozniacki wins easyly and save energy for the next round but I think it's rather unlikely with this being a Grand Slam and not some small tournament .
Laying Safina 1.20 for in-play trading tonight seems like a good option , considering she had trouble in all previous matches and Kvitova is a big girl with strong serve , +5.5 games handicap - 120 line looks very good here .
Soderling vs Querrey is best not be touched , over 40.5 games - 105 seems like the most logical play here , this isnt ending in 3 sets .