Quote:
Originally Posted by Buzz71
Hi all
Has anyone had any experience or thoughts using Elo Rankings as the basis for a tennis betting strategy?
My observation is that you can get decent prices on Betfair compared to Elo comparison probabilities, but is my very small sample size (~50 matches) I have fairly poor results. Interested if anyone has tried for a larger sample size.
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I have used it as a check in the past, but I definitely wouldn't rely on it solely to place bets. You will go broke.
If you are really serious about capping tennis from a number crunching point of view, it's hard to do well with publicly available data and to do seriously would require grading matches by hand or paying people to grade matches by hand.
Tennis stats are abysmal. In my opinion, in order to bet tennis you need to be an ex-player or know the game very well. At the end of the day, because of how quickly you will get limited betting tennis, I wouldn't recommend spending a lot of time on it.
I'd look into ELO rankings on Esports and focusing on learning some of those markets. Even though they are small now, I think there will be a lot of growth there over the next decade and I don't know how much work people are really doing on it. I would also assume because it's all computer **** and a bunch of nerds doing it that they will start releasing a ton of in depth stats on the games.