Mug parlay at 5dimes again , if this doesn't cash I will stick to total games and handicap plays .




Zvonareva in same situation as Querrey and Cuevas , injured but decided to play , could be worth to fade her BUT ONLY at 1 ball bookie , means if one ball is played all wagers stand even if she retires 2 minutes later . If this match is finished it means Zvonareva wasn't badly injured and won the match so worth a try with her opponent being + 335 at one ball bookie like betandwin .

19 January

Wager Type : WTA Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :04:10 PM PST

Victoria Azarenka vs Stephanie Cohen-Aloro

My pick is UNDER 17 GAMES

Odds : - 120 and - 126

Where : 5dimes and pinnaclesports

Total : 6.15 units to win 5 units


Typical player that Azarenka should be able to trash 6-2 6-1 in the early rounds of grand slam . Aloro just lost to Elena Baltacha 2-6 1-6 and week earlier 2-6 3-6 to Francesca Schiavone . Might not cash today but in the long run its a profitable play . Baltacha is poor man's version of Azarenka , just 50 times worse . Azarenka's power should be way too much , if Aloro gets broken in the first 2 games I think its done deal . 6-2 6-3 for a push is a good deal where one opponent is overmatched like that . Last year Azarenka defeated Kvitova 6-2 6-1 in the first round here and Kvitova is by far better player than today's opponent .

19 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :05:30 PM PST

Evgeny Korolev vs Tomas Berdych

My pick is OVER 34.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.86

Where : unibet

5 units to win 4.3 units


Would have this one in 37.5 total range .

19 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :08:30 PM PST

Igor Kunitsyn vs Stanislas Wawrinka

My pick is Igor Kunitsyn UNDER 14.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.72

Where : paddypower

3.71 units to win 2.67 units


As long as Wawrinka wins in 3 sets this should be good to go , can even afford a tiebreak , lets say 6-4 7-6 6-4 . Kunitsyn is the worst player in top 50 rankings , absolutely no weapons . Even if he manages to win a set with 6 games , its not a guarantee he doesn't lose 3 sets 3-6 3-6 2-6 and still stays 0.5 games short of 15 .




20 January

Wager Type : WTA Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :00:10 AM PST

Elena Dementieva vs Justine Henin

My pick is Elena Dementieva OVER 12.5 GAMES and Justine Henin OVER 12.5 GAMES

Odds : 2.10 and 2.20

Where : paddypower

3 units to win 3.6 units and 3.25 units to win 3.57 units


This looks like a 3 set match , tho as long as there is a 7-5 or 7-6 I will make some change , if this goes 3 sets I like my chances to cash both .

I have a question about a bet I saw the other night.

HappyGuy posted in his thread:

I saw this bet and unfortunately my bookmaker does not offer over/unders for individual players. It does however offer over/unders for the total game.

The line was set at 21.5 games and 1.85 for the OVER.

My question is: If we were to assume that HappyGuy's bet above is exactly neutral EV, then would my bet be +EV / -EV (and to what extent) or neutral EV. (Or, asked another way, at what price (eg. 1.85) would my bet become neutral EV).

I'm mostly interested in the calculations involved in figuring this out; or if it is possible with the given information.

Thanks to anyone that can explain the calculations involved.

I don't think it's possible without some idea of variance.

I did a quick simulation in Excel, assuming two women are dead even and they hold serve 70% of the time (I made that up, not sure if it matters much), I get a mean of 24.5 games played. 64% of the time it went over 21.5 games.

And each player was around 50-50 to win over 12.5 games. This suggests that they shouldn't price both players as dogs to win 12.5, but I'm guessing the problem is with my assumption that every game is independent. Even between two dead even players, I would think things like injury/fatigue, momentum, and someone throwing a set once they are down two breaks would make a blowout more likely than in my simulation.

But to answer the question, I think you would need more knowledge of tennis variance and scoring frequencies to price the 21.5 bet.

Parlay cashes with a scare , never again betting on Hantuchova.

Azarenka wins 6-2 6-0 instead of 6-2 6-1 as I was thinking , easy under .

Korolev vs Berdych , over 34.5 lost . 4-6 4-6 for + 350 underdog and then Berdych wasn't able to win 2 more points on his own serve to close out the 2nd set with 4-6 , instead gets broken twice in a row for 5-7 loss . Would take this line any day of the year .

Wawrinka wins 6-3 6-2 6-2 , Kunitsyn won 7 games total , under 14.5 in without trouble .

Henin won 7-5 7-6 , Dementieva had setpoints in the tiebreak , if she converts I would need 1 more game from her in the 3rd to cash both overs . The way it is one loss and one win for small profit .


If I've had any luck both losses could be wins , Dementieva 1 point short , Berdych 2 points short from cashing .


Day 3 : 4-2 + 12.98 units

Australian Open : 12-6 + 14.19 units

What you guys think of Dent vs Tsonga? Possibly taking the over and or handicap w/ Dent depending on line. I think Dent has a great game to keep this close with a possible chance to come out with a win.

Not so sure about it , Dent will need to have very high 1st serve % to atleast have a chance of keeping it close . Dent never really had any success on those australian courts . First round he only had 53 % first serve compared to 66 % of Tsonga and Dent was playing useless Fognini . Last year Tsonga was serving over 61 % four rounds in a row . Really depends if Dent is ready to fight every single set or if he would mail it in after losing first set or get broken twice in one set . European bookies have over/under at 35.5 games which could get close . It's last match on Hisense Arena so maybe Dent will put up a fight in front of big crowd in a night match .

Going to start the day with another sucker parlay .

Young is absolutely useless , Hewitt will have his way with him in the rallies .
Youzhny line looks pretty suspect but I cant see how Hajek is supposed to beat Misha , thought it would be in - 900 range .
Daniel and Koellerer in doubles ? GTFO . Koellerer will probably knock out his partner once they start losing and he will need somebody to blame for it . Aspelin had some success here in previous tries , local man will surely be motivated , both solid doubles players unlike their opponents .
Dlouhy and Paes cant afford to lose this , made 1/2 here last year losing to Bryans . Skoch and Friedl typical grinders who prefer lower level tournaments and on clay .
Serena will not lose to Kvitova in a Grand Slam .
Radwanska should be - 1000 against Alla after Alla's first round performance versus the american teenager Oudin , still wondering how Oudin managed to lose the massive lead in 2nd set .

20 January

Wager Type : ATP Doubles

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :10:00PM EST

I.Karlovic/D.Vemic vs C.Kas/D.Norman

My pick is C.Kas/D.Norman to win

Odds : - 175

Where : 5dimes

4.37 units to win 2.5 units


Kas and Norman both decent doubles players , Norman can match Karlovic's serve and he is better at the net and overall quality in doubles . Karlovic should be more interested in getting some rest for his next singles match with Ljubicic after 5 set match with Stepanek and the win over Benneteau yesterday . Kas and Norman entering this tournament to win money as doubles specialists only while Karlovic should be more focused on getting deep in singles draw .


20 January

Wager Type : ATP Doubles

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time : 07:00 PM EST

T.Bellucci/A.Sa vs E.Butorac/R.Ram

My pick is E.Butorac/R.Ram to win

Odds : - 120

Where : 5dimes

3 units to win 2.5 units


Going with doubles specialists team in this one tho it could be close , Sa is decent in doubles but I think having bigger serves Butorac and Ram will prevail .




20 January

Wager Type : ATP Doubles

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time : 11:30 PM EST

B.Becker/F.Mayer vs C.Ball/S.Huss

My pick is C.Ball/S.Huss to win

Odds : - 175

Where : 5dimes

4.37 units to win 2.5 units


Ball impressed me in his singles match against Verdasco , big serve , solid at the net , decent for doubles . His partner Huss is a doubles specialist as well .
Becker is in for a tough match in singles today against Almagro and Mayer has played 4 sets last night as well . Both have very mediocre doubles records , australians should be very motivated to win this one .




Nieminen totally collapsed and choked yesterday in his singles match , Kohlmann is OK doubles player but nothing special and he is retired being 36 , just playing for fun here and there .
Mirnyi and Bhupathi have won several grand slams , playing together for the first time but don't think it's a big deal for veterans like them .

Andy Ram has won Australian Open 2008 with his partner against Llodra and his partner . Both decided to team up this year , I don't rate Darcis as doubles player at all . Odds are just too good to pass up on great doubles players like that against 2 mugs .

Happy, what do you think about the Tipsarevic/Haas match?

If I remember correctly Haas had a great last grand slam, but not sure of his form lately.

Cant trust either guy with 0.01 , both are headcases and anything can happen . I think Haas might have small edge but it's just that short as the odds suggest .

• Parlay cashes easier this time , 14-0 sets , all straight set wins .

• Kas and Norman lose in the deciding set , didn't see this coming .

• Butorac and Ram win 2-0 sets .

• Ball and Huss win in close 2 sets .

• Both plays in doubles parlay lost , surprising results in those matches for me .

Day 4 : 3-2 + 1.76 units

Australian Open : 15-8 + 15.95 units



http://img264.imageshack.us/img264/3929/parlay74.png

Going with Aspelin and Hanley again today , indian duo nothing special .

Hsieh and Peng made 1/4 here last year before losing in a close one to Williams sisters . Playing together straight 2nd year with solid 33-9 record .
Their opponents are regular partners as well with mediocre 12-24 record on those courts .
Last year Jans and Rosolska have lost to Yan and Zheng here 2-6 2-6 , might be closer but asian duo is much better in every department .
Chuang and Peschke both absolutely top level doubles players . Peers and Robson young players with not a lot of experience in doubles matches .

21 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :05:30 PM PST

Andy Roddick vs Feliciano Lopez

My pick is OVER 9.5 GAMES 2nd set

Odds : 1.66

Where : paddypower

5.61 units to win 3.7 units







21 January

Wager Type : WTA Games Handicap

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :04:10 PM PST

Dinara Safina vs Elena Baltacha

My pick is Elena Baltacha + 6.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.74

Where : unibet

6 units to win 4.44


Baltacha always plays tough in this tournament , should win 6 games to cover the handicap .

Monfils at 1.58 against Isner who looked sluggish at best in his second rounder. Is Isner just not fit for this kind of heat?

I wouldn't bet on this one , Isner has played a lot in the last 10 days and starts showing signs of fatigue . Monfils is a goof , he is unpredictable . One day he might beat Nadal and the next day lose to Hanescu or Montanes . I am leaning towards Monfils win simply because he is a much better player and Isner will tire out sooner or later which is today most likely .
Ljubicic vs Karlovic has over 43.5 games written all over it , perfect conditions for a lot of aces at the time they are going to play in the night session . 7-6 score first set each way at + 350 looks good .

16 minutes into the match , Monfils just got broken from 40-0 to 5 errors in a row . Broken to 0 as we speak , no wonder I cant bring myself to place a cent on this bum . Looks like he wants to be elsewhere .

Ok ... he just woke up , doubt Isner can win this now .

Isner having to go longer than 3 sets just doesn't bode well imo

- 200 at betfair on Monfils now heavy bet , that should be it . Monfils is so much better its not even funny , typical first set tanking from him , when he woke up Isner didn't stand a chance .

That and the fact that Monfils is dominating him now when he decided to play for real .

I never have watched Tennis much in my life, but have been watching the Aussie Open frequently and find it super interesting.

What you think of these matches tomorrow?


Hewitt
Baghdatis

I am leaning Hewitt for a large wager. Baghdatis beat Hewitt earlier in the month, in what I read was a great match, only three sets. Baghdatis played yesterday and looked God awful in the first two sets and then some how turned it on, or Ferrer turned it off, not sure.

Tonga
Haas

leaning Haas, I read he was recently beat by Tonga, but watched him play Tipsarevic the other day and was super impressed with his play. Him being at +250 seems like it is due for a small wager.


Na Li
Hantuchova..sp?

leaning Na Li

Wanted to hear your opinion on my leans. Thanks!

One more thing I was hoping you could answer for me. Why is it that when a player is about to serve that they get like 3 or 4 tennis balls and it looks to me like they are examining each one, then they toss one or two to the side?

What are they looking for, the tennis balls all look the same.

22 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :12:10 AM PST

Rafael Nadal vs Philipp Kohlschreiber

My pick is OVER 9.5 GAMES 1nd set

Odds : 2.00

Where : paddypower

4.25 units to win 4.25 units


If Nadal wins the choice he will as always pick to receive , if Kohlschreiber wins he will choose to serve .
As long as Nadal doesn't win the first set by 2 breaks this looks like a decent bet . Those odds don't calculate that Nadal will be serving 2nd and would need to win the first set by 2 breaks advantage . Of course there is no guarantee that Kohlschreiber can hold his service game 3 times out of 4 but I have to give it a try .




22 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :01:30 AM PST

Ivo Karlovic vs Ivan Ljubicic

My pick is 1st set correct score 7-6 6-7

Odds : 4.50 odds on both

Where : paddypower

2 units each to win 7 units and 2 units to win 7 units


Perfect conditions at the moment , both will be serving bombs and not much on return of serve .