This is a goner , Montanes didn't come to play today . If you cant keep the ball in play for more than 1 shot against a bum like Isner you should quit playing tennis .

5 dimes has lines

I will follow this thread =)

BIG PLAY

14 January

Wager Type : ATP Games Handicap

ATP Medibank International SF

Start time :09:30 PM PST

Marcos Baghdatis vs Mardy Fish

My pick is Mardy Fish + 3 GAMES

Odds : - 108

Where : pinnaclesports

10.8 units to win 10 units

Really fancy Mardy in this one , courts are playing very fast and this could easily end as a 7-6 7-6 type of match .

Hey Happy... any value on Monfils in the Aussie at 80-1? Is it far-fetched he could make the semis and be sold off ~10-1?

The way I see it is him beating 2 mugs , Ferrer ? and then losing to Murray in the 4th round , by the time if he really plays Murray and Nadal is still in in the bottom half of this quarter he will probably be still over 50 .

Djokovic has cake draw pre 1/4 where he should meet Tsonga , I've placed a coin on him already at 65.00 . Maybe another dream run for him at AO , good value if he can get past Soderling , he could beat Djokovic or trade out earlier in case Soderling or Djokovic manage to lose early somehow .
Roddick for trading at 30.00 , decent draw , Del Potro hasn't shined after US Open , either him or Cilic will meet A-Rod in 1/4 . Andy could beat either on a good day . Cilic might play Del Potro before this one , could be a nail biter with both spending a lot of energy , Andy is one of the fittest out there so this is a good advantage , could trade out prematch .

And Davydenko at 9-1? I know you've been trumpeting his abilities recently but all the history I have with him says he goes balls out in 3 setters but fades in the 5s.

Thanks again for your help and info.

He is 13.00 at betfair , looks good , maybe its about time he gets deep in a slam . I mean he has beaten like every single top 5 player recently , Federer and Nadal several times included.

17 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :04:10 PM PST

Florian Mayer vs Philipp Petzschner

My pick is OVER 38.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.86

Where : unibet

5 units to win 4.4 units


Two clowns playing against each , this isn't going to end in 3 sets . I count on atleast one 7-5 or 7-6 set for total of 12 or 13 games , would leave with 26 or 27 games rest which can be easily covered with 6-3 3-6 6-3 sets .


17 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :04:10 PM PST

Radek Stepanek vs Ivo Karlovic

My pick is OVER 43.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.90 and - 141

Where : paddypower and pinnaclesports

2 units to win 1.8 units and 4.23 units to win 3 units


There is a reason why this one is set as the highest total line in the opening round . Their match 4 monthes ago ended : 6-7 , 7-6 , 7-6 , 6-7 , 16-14 in Davis Cup for total of 82 GAMES !!! Neither will get many chances to break , both will most likely win a set 7-6 which would leave just 16 games to cover in 2 sets . Bet385 offers this one at insane over 42 games and - 120 line , maybe someone else isn't limitted to 3 dollar bets there ...


17 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :04:10 PM PST

Radek Stepanek vs Ivo Karlovic

My pick is Ivo Karlovic OVER 20.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.80

Where : paddypower

2.25 units to win 1.8 units


Very low limits at the bookie but thats a steal in my eyes , this isn't ending in 4 sets and Ivo will win one set 7:6 which will leave him with just 14 more games to win in 3 sets .





Schüttler is a retired player , insane odds on Sam here . Old german had some good days here but this was 50 years ago ...

Korolev has no business losing to a clown like Brands who isn't even 10 % of the talent Korolev is .

Poor Chakvetadze went from legit top 10 player to absolute scrub who starts crying after making an error , visit a psychiatrist please before career is done . Pennetta should win this without any trouble 2-0 sets .

Few more additional picks for parlays :

Gabashvili was/might be injured , hasn't performed well in ages vs Belucci - 430 in decent form , should win it .
Bacsinszky - 250 vs Yvonne Meusburger , Yvonne has no weapons and will rely on Bacsinszky to advance her to 2nd round with a lot of unforced errors , don't see it happening , she will make some but not enough to lose the match .
Fish - 270 over Golubev
Petrova - 500 over Golovits
Jankovic - 900 over Niculescu

At williamhill :

Ivo Karlovic vs Radek Stepanek 1st and 2nd set correct score : 7-6 Stepanek + 360 line both sets and 7-6 Karlovic both sets as well + 500 line .

1st Set - Total Service Breaks

None + 300

One break - 105 to cover


Last two meetings : 8 total sets and 7 of them ended 7-6 .

Appreciate your plays as always. Dont always win, but Im up $$$ from your analysis.

Sharapova vs Kirilenko , ultimate match to jerk off to , they should be forced to play with no clothes on ...

So I switch to Ivo Karlovic stream and see he has just got broken ... in the very first game , respect ...
Very windy and wet court , no wonder he is 1/3 on the first serve .

PS : umpire stopped the match , unreal , maybe they shouldnt start in the first place in those conditions .

PS 2 : they are playing again , lmao .

Tailing you all the way in this championship. Let's gogogo!

Very round start for both Mayer and Karlovic , Karlovic came back again to win 2nd set with perfect score of 7-6 to cash the + 500 bet tho its just break even after all other prop bet losses in this match :-/
21 games in , need 23 more , 7-6 6-4 for Ivo would be perfect .

Rain delay really sucks for Mayer match , Petzschner will get some rest because at the moment he was getting picked apart .

lol, lol, kirilenko is just hotter and i hope she wins just based on sheer hotness

Rough start but both came back nicely , 3-0 so far . Korolev and Querrey left in parlay.


18 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :06:30 PM PST

Dieter Kindlmann vs Nikolay Davydenko

My pick is Nikolay Davydenko UNDER 18.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.72

Where : paddypower

3.75 units to win 2.7 units


I am betting on Davydenko not to lose a set here and Kindlmann not winning 5 or 6 games in any set . Over/under line is set at 27.5 which suggest Davydenko has to win 6-3 6-3 6-3 to stay within under . If Kindlmann managed to win a set it's done deal going over , if Kindlmann managed to win 5 or 6 games in a set Davydenko would have still to win this set and the rest 6-1 6-2 or even 6-1 6-1 . 6-4 6-4 6-4 win would still cash the under 18.5 games for Davydenko but it's a loss in under 27.5 games .
Davydenko is in red hot form , unless the russian messes around here I don't see how Kindlman can win 5 or more games in a set . I have followed Kindlmann's last Qualifying round match and he allowed 17 breakpoints in 3 sets with 8 double faults . Courts suit Davydenko's game perfectly , not too slow but not too fast either . Should be looking to save energy for the later rounds .



18 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :05:30 PM PST

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Stanislas Wawrinka

My pick is OVER 35.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.80

Where : unibet

5 units to win 4 units



Pinnaclesports and 5dimes have it at over/under 36 , basically same line with the difference getting a push or win on exact 36 games .
I have no reason not to believe this isn't one of those matches where both players will have several brainfarts during the play . 4 set match here atleast , neither has really big serve to run away with anything , even a four 6-3 sets match would cover this by 0.5 games .




18 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :08:00 PM PST

Marc Gicquel vs Simone Bolelli

My pick is OVER 37.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.75

Where : unibet

4 units to win 3 units


Same story here , there is no way bookies can expect all those close matches to end under those total lines in a grand slam .



18 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :07:00 PM PST

Lukas Lacko vs Leonardo Mayer

My pick is OVER 37.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.80

Where : unibet

5 units to win 4 units

QFT but mostly to add this thread to my subscriptions.

Thanks a lot for the analysis (picks are great too but your writeups really help teach what's important to look at - other than Kirilenko's ass

Parlay down the drain , thanks to Querrey . Injured or not he had no business losing to someone like Schuettler . Don't know why he bothered showing up to play .


18 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :06:30 PM PST

Paolo Lorenzi v Marcos Baghdatis

My pick is Paolo Lorenzi UNDER 11.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.80

Where : paddypower

2.26 units to win 1.81 units





18 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :06:30 PM PST

Paolo Lorenzi v Marcos Baghdatis

My pick is Marcos Baghdatis 3-0 sets , Paolo Lorenzi not to win a set

Odds : 1.53

Where : paddypower

5.43 units to win 2.88 units




19 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :00:10 AM PST

Lleyton Hewitt vs Ricardo Hocevar

My pick is Ricardo Hocevar UNDER 10.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.66

Where : paddypower

2.7 units to win 1.82 units

Last one


19 January

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Australian Open. Melbourne, Australia

Start time :00:10 AM PST

Lleyton Hewitt vs Ricardo Hocevar

My pick is UNDER 29 GAMES

Odds : - 145

Where : pinnaclesports

7.25 units to win 5 units


The more I think about this one the more I think it's a real steal tho thats what I've thought with the over plays today as well , not a single fighter showed up to try and bounce back after losing a set .
Hewitt has to win 6-4 6-4 6-3 to get a push , considering Hocevar has absolutely nothing to hurt him with I can see a scoreline like 6-3 6-2 6-2 here .

Ok, were back to tennis action:

Has anybody found anything interresting regarding AUS open?

Regards
A234

I have found out that it's not possible to predict some player's form , thats why people like Clement , Schuettler or Johansson made the finals here .
Davydenko probably best in form player at the moment . I think either Nadal , Davydenko or Murray will win the whole thing , just a gut feeling .
Djokovic and Federer both in not so great form and would lose to 3 mentioned earlier . Roddick would have to serve 90 % first serve to have a chance against those . Del Potro is a question mark , tough to judge what kind of form he is in .

Australian Open : 8-4 + 1.21 units

Lacko absolutely killed L.Mayer as + 160 underdog , if Mayer took a set over would be in without trouble .
Bolleli lost first two sets 6-7 , needed to hold 1 more game for the over to cash in 3 sets but got broken .
Bad call on Wawrinka match over , spaniard has no chance at all .
All 5 under total plays cashed tho .

Minus 2k swing on the parlay really hurts , didn't realize Querrey was badly injured at the end of the last year . Seems like not many americans bothered to show up and play : Fish , Querrey and Ginepri all lost in 3 or 4 sets as - 300 and higher favorites .