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Old 03-27-2009, 03:57 PM   #26
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

Quote:
Originally Posted by varsity629 View Post
3 main points in which you would draw conclusions about any one individual match.

1.) Surface (Grass-Fastest with lowest bounce, Hard Court- True bounce with medium speed, Red Clay- Slowest with biggest bounce)

2.) Style of Play ( Serve and Volley, Baseline, Scrappy)

3.) Most recent wins/losses, tournament schedule, injuries, weather (I normally look for players who are switching surfaces in a short matter of time without warm up tournaments)

1 and 2 go hand in hand, as the surface will most likely dictate which player has the advantage based on their style of play. For example, a Serve and Volley player will have the advantage against a baseliner on grass courts as the play is much faster, points are quicker and a big serve gives you a big advantage. On the contrary, if this match was to take place on a clay court, the baseliner would most likely have the advantage as the points become longer, the pace of the ball is much slower (and with much more spin) and the game becomes much more tactical from shot to shot. This is the primary component to favoring one player over another assuming they are similarly ranked, and the bookies will account for this.

The best tennis gamblers are the ones who are normally present at the tournaments, watching players as they warm up looking for anything that might give them an edge. Sluggishness, a rolled ankle, no "pop" on their serves or floating slices are just a couple things to watch out for.

With that said, I know a ton about the game and played at a high level, but am still not convinced you can be profitable just betting lines without any sort of inside information. I am also assuming you are betting in volume.

Good luck...

and i was already desperate! thank you guys
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Old 07-22-2009, 05:06 PM   #27
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HappyGuy's tennis plays

22 July

Wager Type : ATP favorite ML

Indianapolis Tennis Championships R16

Start time :02:30 PM PST ( in 25 minutes )

Denis Istomin vs John Isner

My pick is John Isner to win

Odds : - 232

Where : pinnaclesports

23.2 units to win 10 units


Will start with a big play which is worth laying the juice . Isner's serve should be too big for Denis Istomin who has struggled in the previous round against Kim in what seemed like a fixed match if we go by pre-match and in-play betting odds from betfair .
Isner shows up to play on those US hardcourt tournaments and his serve was looking good in the first round winning 86 % on his first delivery and 72 % on his second serve compared to 60 % and 46 % of Istomin against Kim .
Overall I think Isner's serve will be the deciding factor on those fast courts and Istomin doesn't have enough quality to overcome this . In worst case scenario Isner should prevail in two tiebreaks ( 7-6 ).
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Old 07-22-2009, 05:29 PM   #28
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

All matches have been delayed , raining in Indi .
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Old 07-22-2009, 09:05 PM   #29
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

I agree with your analysis for the most part., i just hate laying that price when I am almost certainly going to be sweating tiebreaks.
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Old 07-22-2009, 09:10 PM   #30
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Just wondering but what % of your bankroll is a unit?
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Old 07-22-2009, 10:35 PM   #31
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

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I agree with your analysis for the most part., i just hate laying that price when I am almost certainly going to be sweating tiebreaks.
I see what you mean but there are more than few important factors here for me to bet against Istomin . First of all this guy doesn't have a big gas tank , after a long set he usually starts showing signs of fatigue , considering Isner is very unlikely to get broken Istomin will have to play a lot of games and worry about holding his own serve . This is his second ATP hardcourts match in the US compared to Isner's 111 matches played within USA .
Istomin's first round opponent Kim is 2-8 in his last 10 matches and we have to consider Istomin has faced 11 breakpoints and was broken 5 times for close to 50 % breakpoints conversation rate for Kevin Kim . Isner has not faced a single breakpoint in his first round match , winning 86 % on his first serve and impressive 72 % 13/18 on his 2nd serve with 15 aces .
I've seen Istomin play several times and there is nothing special about this guy that would make me think he can deal with Isner's big serve better than other opponents also Istomin's serve isn't exactly unbreakable and Isner might have few looks at breaking him .



Very impressive stats in doubles match that has just finished , I haven't seen this win percentage on first serve in doubles matches in a while .
Istomin and his partner have lost in straight sets .

Quote:
Originally Posted by agdci981 View Post
Just wondering but what % of your bankroll is a unit?
$200,000 roll for tennis bets , 1 unit = $100 , tops I do risk XX do to win 10u .

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Old 07-23-2009, 12:57 AM   #32
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Very thorough work on the Isner match. Going off recent form I think you have to like Becker to beat Dancevic. I would have expected to see a line of around 1.56 on Becker and was surprised he is 1.72 on five dimes.
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Old 07-23-2009, 01:34 AM   #33
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Going to have a closer look at this one later as there are many matches in Europe before this one .
Dancevic was runner up here 2007 beating Becker in straight sets , Del Potro , Kunitsyn and Roddick in 2 sets .
Becker has won that tournament in s-Hertogenbosch few weeks ago but there is big difference between hard and grass courts , Becker's game is well suited for the latter .

Brands + 145 over Mathieu in Hamburg has caught my attention .

Mathieu had to retire against Fognini last week and struggled against a weak opponent in the first round here in Hamburg . Brands on the other hand has beaten Crivoi and Gilles Simon , first match had weird betting pattern which makes me assume this match has been fixed . Brands was already involved in a dodgy match against Starace in Munich which I was luckily able to profit from . Starace opened as - 350 favorite and during the night odds moved to evens , there was a rumor about Starace being injured . So I've decided to jump on the train and watched this match , Starace lost first set and retired in the 2nd set .
Mathieu had some retirements in the last 12 monthes : ret. Singles - Dizziness last week , ret. Singles - Sickness , ret. Singles - Headache .
Maybe he is going to retire again today , who knows ... or atleast he is not in the 100 % shape and Brands has big serve and OK game on clay to trouble a possible handicapped Mathieu .
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Old 07-23-2009, 02:35 AM   #34
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Becker has won 19 of his last 20 matches on Hard so I am not sure I agree that it is not his best surface. Granted those were challenger events but Dancevic
has been pretty disappointing after showing some signs of breaking through a year or so ago. Should be interesting but I gotta lean toward a Becker given the price and their prospective results this year.
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Old 07-23-2009, 06:46 AM   #35
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Happy guy can you elaborate on your betting background ? Have you kept a detailed record of your betting ? What kind of ROI did you achieve so far ?

Also I think that usually 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll.
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Old 07-23-2009, 07:02 AM   #36
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seb86 View Post

Also I think that usually 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll.
while this typical, you can also use 1 unit = one's base betting amount. If someone is betting 100 dollars as a base unit with a 5 or 10 k roll, 100 s still their 1 unit bet.
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Old 07-23-2009, 10:57 PM   #37
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

I just try to keep it simple for the record so I won't have to deal with 0.X units numbers so 1u is $100 , many people wager this way especially in sports like boxing , MMA or tennis .

Dancevic ment business today , not giving a lot of looks to Becker .



Isner's match result isn't confirmed as scoreboard went down during the match after 6-4 2-2 but from several sources I have 6-4 6-4 as end result for John Isner , also betfair odds are down to zero on Isner .



Traded a little bit at betfair in-play , no losses in 10 bets but no solid wins either .
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:22 PM   #38
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Nicely done on the Isner pick.
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Old 07-23-2009, 11:39 PM   #39
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Nothing to really brag about hitting a - 230 favorite but I will take it , thanks.

Lot of underdogs tomorrow who might bark especially in WTA .

Zahlavova + 173 over Cornet might be worth a shot especially for users who are able to bet on betfair because it's certain those odds will be lower during the match . Cornet really struggling mentally this year and today she lucked out because her opponent has beaten herself . Last year this line would have been set at around - 400/500 for Cornet .

Meusburger + 300 over Shvedova could be considered as well ... think those odds are a bit off here , Meusburger is playing at home and Shevoda's wins in this tournament are a bit overrated , austrian had tougher draw . Last week I've watched Shvedova lose to Errani and she has no weapons at all , typical grinder waiting for an error . Might not win but should give a run for your money , not Shvedova 2-0 sets or + games handicap for Meusburger are better option .

Also Cuevas was outstanding today in his match against local german Kohlschreiber in Hamburg . Almagro has won against a tired and fatigued Soderling but other than that he has been in horrible form this year , + 240 on Cuevas might be worth a bite .
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Old 07-24-2009, 07:42 AM   #40
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

24 July

Wager Type : WTA Set Betting

Gastein Ladies QF

Start time :06:05 AM PST ( in + 1 hour )

Alize Cornet vs Barbora Zahlavova Strycova

My pick is Barbora Zahlavova Strycova +1.5 SETS , not 2-0 Cornet

Odds : 1.65

Where : expekt

5 units to win 3.25 units
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Old 07-24-2009, 11:35 AM   #41
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

I don't bet tennis but I really like your style.
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Old 07-24-2009, 12:48 PM   #42
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

When I saw your first post I thought u were just another random sport betting fish, but from the next ones you seem to know what you are doing

Keep up the good job

PS : Where are you from ?
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Old 07-24-2009, 05:34 PM   #43
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seb86 View Post
When I saw your first post I thought u were just another random sport betting fish, but from the next ones you seem to know what you are doing

Keep up the good job

PS : Where are you from ?
Nothing impressive so far hitting two heavy fav plays , thanks tho.
I'm from Germany .

24 July

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Indianapolis Tennis Championships QF

Start time :04:05 PM PST ( in 90 minutes )

John Isner vs Wayne Odesnik

My pick is OVER 22,5 GAMES

Odds : 1.90 and 1.833

Where : bet365 and sportingbet

2.64 units to win 2.4 units and 3 units to win 2.5 units for combined risk 5.64 units to win 4.9 units

Isner serving strong on those fast courts but he might have a lot of trouble breaking Odesnik who will have big advantage once the ball is in play . Played against each other 4 times and it's tied 2-2 with 3 matches going to 3 sets ( 34 , 26 and 39 total games with 3 tiebreaks match ) and other one finishing with 22 games total .
I believe over 22.5 games would hit around 75 % of the time when those two meet and hardcourts . Odesnik is the better player when ball is in play but Isner makes this up with strong serve . We aren't necessary looking for a 3 set match because a 7-6 6-4 straight sets win for either would still cover the line .
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Old 07-24-2009, 11:11 PM   #44
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

J. Isner def W. Odesnik 7-5 6-7 7-5 = 37 games .

Posted Record : 3-0 +18.15 units
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Old 07-25-2009, 12:07 AM   #45
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Public bet of the day is Pablo Cuevas - 110 over Mathieu in Hamburg , can't disagree with this one if we go by previous play in this tournament .
Watched all of Cuevas's main draw matches and this is some amazing quality tennis he is showing there . Key to his success have been great defending from difficult situations and clutch serving , he is mixing it up very well on his serve . Wide kick serve has done wonders on this court , forcing his opponents way out of court to return he has almost whole court open for his next shot .
Mathieu is a big time choker and even tho on paper it looks like Mathieu should have more experience at this stage of a tournament I think he will be too frustrated with Cuevas rock solid defending and wide serve .
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Old 07-25-2009, 12:19 PM   #46
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Woke up at 5-5 just to see Cuevas get broken and lose in the third 7-5 ... Too bad I wasn't able to bet on this match anyway even tho he has lost but there was easy money to be made at betfair in-play . Cuevas opened at 2.00 and during the match odds were as low as 1.06 at one point .

25 July

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Indianapolis Tennis Championships SF

Start time :10:35 AM PST ( in 1+ hour )

Frank Dancevic vs Sam Querrey

My pick is OVER 9.5 GAMES FIRST SET

Odds : 1.60

Where : unibet

5 units to win 3 units


Another very high percentage play that in a long run will make you solid profit. So far in 3 matches Querrey has not been broken a single time , Dancevic has lost his serve twice in the previous match against Tursunov but other than that he hasn't even faced a single breakpoint in 2 other matches . Also value on over 22.5 games as this one is certainly to have a tiebreak in the match .
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Old 07-25-2009, 12:33 PM   #47
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyGuy View Post
Woke up at 5-5 just to see Cuevas get broken and lose in the third 7-5 ... Too bad I wasn't able to bet on this match anyway even tho he has lost but there was easy money to be made at betfair in-play . Cuevas opened at 2.00 and during the match odds were as low as 1.06 at one point .

25 July

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Indianapolis Tennis Championships SF

Start time :10:35 AM PST ( in 1+ hour )

Frank Dancevic vs Sam Querrey

My pick is OVER 9.5 GAMES FIRST SET

Odds : 1.60

Where : unibet

5 units to win 3 units


Another very high percentage play that in a long run will make you solid profit. So far in 3 matches Querrey has not been broken a single time , Dancevic has lost his serve twice in the previous match against Tursunov but other than that he hasn't even faced a single breakpoint in 2 other matches . Also value on over 22.5 games as this one is certainly to have a tiebreak in the match .
What is the fair odd for a set to have more than 9.5 games between 2 random players ?

Like if you take all first sets played on the ATP tour this season, what % of those had more than 9.5 games ?
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Old 07-25-2009, 12:59 PM   #48
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

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What is the fair odd for a set to have more than 9.5 games between 2 random players ?

Like if you take all first sets played on the ATP tour this season, what % of those had more than 9.5 games ?
That's not what I ment , you aren't looking to bet on over 9.5 games in matches like Nadal on clay against someone he is going to outclass 6 - ( 0,1,2 games). I don't have the exact stats but I assume you already know the answer ... you are not guaranteed to make profit betting on random players and on random surface . Clay is the surface that I would not bet on over 9.5 no matter who is playing . You can try to look up results when two big servers play each other on a fast surface , I believe atleast 80 % it is going over 9.5 games and very high percentage ending in tiebreaks .
I am not making a bet on this prop , just to see if you would end up with profit :
Querrey wins 1st set 7-6 +600
Dancevic wins 1st set 7-6 +700

Isner vs Ginepri
Both + 650 to win the first set 7-6 .

Same odds on those scores in 2nd sets .

All odds from williamhill .
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Old 07-25-2009, 03:26 PM   #49
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

25 July

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Indianapolis Tennis Championships SF

Start time :01:05 PM PST

Robby Ginepri vs John Isner

My pick is OVER 9.5 GAMES FIRST SET

Odds : 1.55

Where : unibet

5 units to win 2.75 units
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Old 07-26-2009, 06:42 PM   #50
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Happy guy,

I am looking at Ginepri over Safin in LA. Obviously Ginepri is playing well and while I normally don't like backing winners traveling into the next week the final did not take much out of him physically or emotionally and Safin really looks like he has it is second gear with this year being his last. I am also looking at Dancevic, Guccione and Kendrik depending on prices.
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