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Old 05-20-2008, 02:01 PM   #1
PropPlayer
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Talking Tennis Betting Thread

This is an open ongoing thread for discussing tennis betting.
It is also the one to use if posting tennis picks.
Note: several threads were merged together to consolidate the topic.

Last edited by PropPlayer; 01-05-2014 at 12:34 PM. Reason: merged threads
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Old 03-25-2009, 08:50 PM   #2
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another noob thread about tennis

Hi guys,

sorry to bother you again with a sceptical newbie question.

- but i like to know if you can develop a serious edge in tennis sports betting. (final rounds of tournies as well as the early rounds in which the starter fields are quite large but with many players where info is not really provided besides maybe worldranking)

- if yes, which winrates are possible with hardcore lineshopping? (graphs and spreadsheats welcome obv.)

- and how much knowledge/human thinking/passion/insider knowledge and stuff do you need to develop these winrates? (how long does it take for a tennis noob to get into he materia)

thanks alot in advance
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Old 03-25-2009, 08:53 PM   #3
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

alot of tennis capping is about conditions and who can play in the heat the most

just look at the australian open the europeans couldn't hack it but serena is used to that kind of heat

also always bet on this man

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Old 03-25-2009, 09:34 PM   #4
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

to shape my questions a little better:

what work has to be done with which knowledge to get a:

a.) 51%
b.) 52%
c.) 53%
d.) even higher

winrate in tennis?

i know this thread is kind of vague but i really want to know this stuff... so any input is welcome

Last edited by Knoooby; 03-25-2009 at 09:41 PM.
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Old 03-26-2009, 09:40 AM   #5
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

another thought process of mine. am i trying too hard at the moment?

i think if i bet on the 2way result of a tennis match of 2 players that are not really well known.

i think this:
- i compare their world rank # with the statistical value of each world ranks number against the other. (maybe i have a research problem here)

- i compare their natural handicap when it comes down to climate (like in the post above although i cannot tell if it was a level or not, but i do like it )

- i compare their individual performance on grass/ashes

- i give my results a finetuning with each players recent performance

are there some other factors to consider? is my thinking ok? or am i maybe full of ****

that being said: if anybody likes to teach my a little about tennis betting its VERY appreciated

Last edited by Knoooby; 03-26-2009 at 09:57 AM.
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Old 03-26-2009, 09:57 AM   #6
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

The problem with looking at world rankings is that in tennis more than lots of team sports, if A>B and B>C it doesn't necessarily follow that A>C
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Old 03-26-2009, 10:14 AM   #7
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigalt View Post
The problem with looking at world rankings is that in tennis more than lots of team sports, if A>B and B>C it doesn't necessarily follow that A>C
may you plz give me an example that i can understand this better? the problem is this: i see the A>B stuff... but how does that interact with the world rank statistic?

or do you think the problem is that my edge gets too small to beat the books?

but my strategy should be smally +ev without the "rake" or am i too dumb?
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Old 03-26-2009, 11:50 AM   #8
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

Quote:
Originally Posted by pourchampagne View Post
just look at the australian open the europeans couldn't hack it but serena is used to that kind of heat
Why is Serena used to the heat?
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Old 03-26-2009, 11:54 AM   #9
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

its fairly easy to achieve >63% win in tennis......

Just bet any odds <1.5 imo
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Old 03-26-2009, 12:11 PM   #10
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seb86 View Post
its fairly easy to achieve >63% win in tennis......

Just bet any odds <1.5 imo
?

which 63% are you talking about?

and what about the odds <1.5?

im really confused... sorry if all this stuff is trivial for you but im really noobish. my books are ordered on amazon but it will take me some weeks to work through
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Old 03-26-2009, 03:12 PM   #11
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

Seriously read the FAQ and whatever else you can get your hands on, but so far none of your post makes sense.

I really dont know where to start, maybe try to understand how the odds system works, you will know you understand it when you realize why this question is stupid

Quote:
what work has to be done with which knowledge to get a:

a.) 51%
b.) 52%
c.) 53%
d.) even higher
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Old 03-26-2009, 03:28 PM   #12
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

ok yeah you are right maybe

but
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seb86 View Post
its fairly easy to achieve >63% win in tennis......

Just bet any odds <1.5 imo
i dont want to win more than 50% of my bets

i want a WINRATE of 50%+on my money which equals more than 0% roi


... and yeah i did read the stickies already and i know that 55-60% are the highest achieveable winrates on my money so i was really confused when you told something about 63%

Last edited by Knoooby; 03-26-2009 at 03:44 PM.
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Old 03-26-2009, 03:46 PM   #13
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

my question in easiest words:

what effort does it take to become a (small) betting winner with tennis. roi of ~2% were totally enough for me
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Old 03-26-2009, 03:55 PM   #14
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

http://www.tennisinsight.com/
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Old 03-26-2009, 04:14 PM   #15
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

now thats what i call helpfull thanks alot so far


and again sorry, for either my lack of good english and sports betting knowledge and lingua

i will read everything i can get but at first i have to know my frame of possibillities (thats why i ask all this maybe dumb stuff)
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Old 03-26-2009, 04:43 PM   #16
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Knoooby View Post
ok yeah you are right maybe

but

i dont want to win more than 50% of my bets

i want a WINRATE of 50%+on my money which equals more than 0% roi


... and yeah i did read the stickies already and i know that 55-60% are the highest achieveable winrates on my money so i was really confused when you told something about 63%
What the hell do you mean by winrate ? the % of bet won ? If so I stand on what I already said and you need to understand how the odds system works
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Old 03-26-2009, 05:30 PM   #17
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
Why is Serena used to the heat?
well here's just one example




there are tons more
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Old 03-26-2009, 06:00 PM   #18
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seb86 View Post
What the hell do you mean by winrate ? the % of bet won ? If so I stand on what I already said and you need to understand how the odds system works
i KNOW how the oddsystems works.

and by winrate i mean the winrate of every avg 1 unit bet in the longrun

so a 51%avg winrate equals 2% roi and 55%avg winrate equals 10% roi

thats all.


but i will follow your advice and read the books first. then we have the same standards in lingua and mathematic terms and can understand each others thoughts better.
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Old 03-26-2009, 06:41 PM   #19
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Knoooby View Post
and by winrate i mean the winrate of every avg 1 unit bet in the longrun

so a 51%avg winrate equals 2% roi and 55%avg winrate equals 10% roi

thats all.
Including the defined word in the definition is pretty awsome imo.

Seriously I now think I understand what you mean but you have to realize that talking about "winrate" only makes sense in US sport where you bet -110 or so line, in tennis you are going to be betting a bunch of -500 and +1500 line, your 51% wont quite mean 2% ROI.

Thats what I was refering to when I said you need to understand how the odd system works
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Old 03-26-2009, 07:46 PM   #20
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seb86 View Post
Seriously I now think I understand what you mean but you have to realize that talking about "winrate" only makes sense in US sport where you bet -110 or so line, in tennis you are going to be betting a bunch of -500 and +1500 line, your 51% wont quite mean 2% ROI.
thats what i meant with "we dont have the same standards in mathematic language".

my original way to express edge and winrates DOES make as much sense as yours... its just not the common sense on this board and i respect that and will read the books before i induce more responses with unecessary spots that can be missunderstood.

cu around

btw: does anybody mind to answer my actual question now? :P
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Old 03-27-2009, 01:16 AM   #21
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Knoooby View Post
i KNOW how the oddsystems works.
No you don't.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Knoooby View Post
and by winrate i mean the return on every 1 unit bet in the longrun
FYP. And that is only ROI, stop calling it a winrate. You do not care about winrate in a sport like tennis, only ROI.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Knoooby View Post
so a 51%avg winrate equals 2% roi and 55%avg winrate equals 10% roi
No it doesn't.

1) Tennis is a moneyline sport.
2) Even if it was a spread sport with -110 lines, your math is all ****ered up because you are not calculating the juice into the equation.

51% winrate does NOT mean 51-49 = 2% ROI. Not even close. You hit 51% ATS and you are running at a NEGATIVE ROI:

At the standard -110 juice:

51% winrate
(51) - (49*1.1) = -2.90
-2.90/110 = -2.64% ROI

55% winrate
(55) - (45*1.1) = 5.50
5.50/110 = 5.00% ROI

And to answer your question, YES tennis can be beat, though I do not bet it personally.


I've devised a course of action for you to take so that you stop embarrassing yourself on these forums on a daily basis. You need to:

1. Not make any statements until you have received and read both Wong's and Yao's books. Any posts between then and now should be in question form as you are clearly unqualified to do anything else.
2. After doing so, come back into this thread and apologize for being a knob and posting incorrect assumptions as facts.

That is all.
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Old 03-27-2009, 11:49 AM   #22
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

lol im from poker and im studying economics
it may be new for you sports bettors that outside your (very little) world "winrate" can have very different definitions and calculations

like i said i apologize for confusing you with my use of the term "winrate" which has a different definition in the common sense of the sports betting world than the environments im usually in. im really sorry for that. it wont happen again since i will maybe not post in this icecold forum again or maybe will, but either way im going to read the books first that we have the same standards

but assuming i dont understand the odds system is ridiculous since every retard can understand it and im not as dumb as you might think i am.

btw: your "FYP" doesnt hit my point even close.
but i think its pointless to elaborate further since nobody is interessted and you have all rights to be obv since its your forum.

w/, you may close this thread down since im certainly not apologizing again

Last edited by Knoooby; 03-27-2009 at 12:02 PM.
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Old 03-27-2009, 11:57 AM   #23
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

Couple of things.
-Research how the ranking system works, it is a lot based on how many tournaments players play ( players who play more tournaments will accumulate more points). To just look at the ranking # in your analysis is not great.
-There are clay court specialists and hard court specialists, keep note of the surface being played.

Also remember that the bookies/exchanged consider these things in their odds too.

Last edited by d_escapist; 03-27-2009 at 12:05 PM.
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Old 03-27-2009, 12:11 PM   #24
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

Quote:
Originally Posted by d_escapist View Post
Couple of things.
-Research how the ranking system works, it is a lot based on how many tournaments players play ( players who play more tournaments will accumulate more points). To just look at the ranking # in your analysis is not great.
-There are clay court specialists and hard court specialists, keep note of the surface being played.

Also remember that the bookies/exchanged consider these things in their odds too.
a cool thanks alot

thats the stuff i was hoping for
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Old 03-27-2009, 03:35 PM   #25
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Re: another noob thread about tennis

3 main points in which you would draw conclusions about any one individual match.

1.) Surface (Grass-Fastest with lowest bounce, Hard Court- True bounce with medium speed, Red Clay- Slowest with biggest bounce)

2.) Style of Play ( Serve and Volley, Baseline, Scrappy)

3.) Most recent wins/losses, tournament schedule, injuries, weather (I normally look for players who are switching surfaces in a short matter of time without warm up tournaments)

1 and 2 go hand in hand, as the surface will most likely dictate which player has the advantage based on their style of play. For example, a Serve and Volley player will have the advantage against a baseliner on grass courts as the play is much faster, points are quicker and a big serve gives you a big advantage. On the contrary, if this match was to take place on a clay court, the baseliner would most likely have the advantage as the points become longer, the pace of the ball is much slower (and with much more spin) and the game becomes much more tactical from shot to shot. This is the primary component to favoring one player over another assuming they are similarly ranked, and the bookies will account for this.

The best tennis gamblers are the ones who are normally present at the tournaments, watching players as they warm up looking for anything that might give them an edge. Sluggishness, a rolled ankle, no "pop" on their serves or floating slices are just a couple things to watch out for.

With that said, I know a ton about the game and played at a high level, but am still not convinced you can be profitable just betting lines without any sort of inside information. I am also assuming you are betting in volume.

Good luck...
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