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Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis

05-24-2008 , 04:01 PM
I have copied my log for the 2007 playoffs, detailing my thought process behind my bets. I want you folk's opinions on my chances of being +ev at NBA playoff betting based on how I am thinking about the decisions. I know almost nothing about basketball and don't follow the regular season, so my bets are tilted more toward halftime lines so that I can get a feel for how the teams play, and I look at trends sometimes to try to get an idea what to look for. After going 8-3 +7.5u and freerolling on the detroit series bet, I realize that if I only bet the playoffs I will never have enough data to determine if I am +ev, so basically I am using your input to determine my bet sizing.

the asterisks are notes I made after the game

basketball playoffs 2007

5/21/07
Detroit -345 x2.5 units
Cleveland was +3000 to win series last year
Detroit lost Wallace and replaced him with Webber
Detroit is less heavily favored to win championship this year
Detroit not that much worse than last year yet getting way worse odds against cleveland
After 2 games, detroit has won, but cleveland could have easily won either one by making a final shot. makes me think clev is better than i thought. gut halfway says bail out of the det bet at +645 on tradesports giving up half the profit, so bet 53 to win 345 at x2.5 units
*freerolled and lost

5/22/07
Under 95 -101 second half x1 L
SA is up by 17, will try to slow the game down. Utah will not shoot any better in the second and only shot 38% in first. expect SA to shoot worse than 57% in second
*SA sped up in second half instead of slowing down. went high tempo. utah shot a little better, and SA shot a little worse

5/23/07
Detroit -7.5 2nd half -104 x1 W
cleveland up by 12, equal in all stats but shot %, cleveland shooting 50% det at 43% and detroit with a few more turnovers. they step it up in 2nd at home
*Det shot much better in 2nd half

5/26/07
Jazz 2nd half -2.5 x1 W
jazz shooting only slightly worse than SA and only down by 5
*they came back and crushed SA

5/28/07
here i like parlays
SA -2.5 -105 & Under 190 -115 +265 W
UT +115 & Over 190 -105 +320 L
Not sure why Utah is such a big dog here shouldn't they continue to be on fire? opinion on Utah +2.5

5/29/07
Cle +2.5 -122 x2 W
what is going on here? If cleveland makes their final shot they win 1st 2 games, they win the 3rd game, and now they are underdogs at home? plus 66% of public on Det. cle has gone 5-0 ats when trailing in the playoffs and done well after 3 consecutive unders. I love cleveland here.

Cle +200 2nd half x.5 L
cleveland is shooting 50% det 40%, with more turnovers and rebounds, up by 7, good chance of things not changing, and with home field, +200 looks good as they only up by 7
*this is a case where final quarter bet would have been better because cleveland has had terrible 3rd quarters vs detroit and i did not research this. clev was outscored by 9 in the 3rd, then came back in the 4th. a cleveland -7 4th bet would have paid huge

5/30/07
SA -7.5 -102 x1 W A scoreandodds pick. i see utah 2-10 with this total, does poorly with revenge away, and poorly as a heavy road dog. SA does well as heavy home fav.

SA/UT Over 189.5 -105 x1 W
when SA was up by 17 at the half in game 2, they went high tempo instead of slowing it down. this will cause the game to go over even if SA is blowing them out.
\
5/30/07
CLE +5.5 -106 x.5 W does well as a road underdog, and has shown they can beat detroit for 4 games, still not getting enough respect. they probably fix their 3rd quarter problems. gut for this game says detroit is due for big game, but my logic says otherwise
*cle wins in double overtime, guess we go with logic, cleveland has now cover all 5 games of the series

6/11/07
don't see much value on either side tonight for game 2. James should shoot better than 4/16, so opinion cavs +7.5 +100 L

6/12/07
cle -.5 -101 2nd half x1 L
cleveland shooting poorly on 3pt while SA 5-8, cle with many turnovers to help SA, i say cle -5 2nd should be the line
*if cleveland makes final shot, or hits better than 3-19 on their 3pt, which is absurly low playing at home, they cover this line, this bet hits way over 50%

6/14/07
cle +3 -106 x2 W
cleveland has just been shooting super poorly, mostly missing open shots, i think if they just have a decent game they cover or win
*well they continued to shoot super poor, but took the lead in final quarter, then fell apart and lost but made the final 3 pt shot when down 4 for a cover lol.


from 2006 playoffs

Phoenix to win series with lakers x5 units -160 BIG FAT W
Pho had a horrible game, while Odom goes 9/12 for 21pt. Barbosa goes 0-5, marion 5-15. Pho only down by 7 most of game while doing crappy and lakers doing good. if this is lakers playing well, they will lose series. (series was tied 1-1, pho continued to suck for 2 games then played great for 3 straight to take it)

Clippers to win series over phoenix -111 x5 units L
LA shows they can score near phoenix style with the quick shots, barely lose game 1. LA starts playing defense and still scores 122 points, outrebounds them 57-26, oreb 19-5, wins game 2 by 25pts. LA clearly better team at even money with home advantage.
Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Quote
05-24-2008 , 06:22 PM
I didn't read your analysis but your sample size is too small to tell you anything notable.
Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Quote
05-24-2008 , 09:30 PM
I know my sample size is tiny, but I will never get a good sample size if I only bet the playoffs, and I hate watching reg season basketball. This is why I want opinions on whether the way I am thinking about the games is solid enough to be +ev
Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Quote
05-25-2008 , 12:39 AM
In a word, no.
Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Quote
05-25-2008 , 12:54 AM
it is hard to be +ev without any sort of mathematical model. you are betting on pure intuition and don't have any information that the books or the general public does not have.
Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Quote
05-26-2008 , 05:43 AM
after reading the thread title.... no

food for thought: -----> if you are asking an online forum if your +ev, you're not.
Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Quote
05-26-2008 , 05:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dudeimstoked
it is hard to be +ev without any sort of mathematical model. you are betting on pure intuition and don't have any information that the books or the general public does not have.

in a nicer way... what he said ^^^
Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Quote
05-26-2008 , 07:32 PM
I see what you guys are saying and it makes sense. Thanks for the input. I think I might have more of a chance of being +ev than is apparent because I have a large sample of NFL wagers to be reasonably sure I'm +ev in that sport, and I think the handicapping skills I learned for that transfer at least to some extent to other sports, but they would appear as "intuition" since I'm not that familiar with the mechanics of the sport. Seems like hype/momentum/winning is overly accounted for in basketball lines and standard "regression to the norm" type analysis can get you somewhere. I guess I won't know until I do it some more so I'll just keep the betting super small.
Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Quote
05-31-2008 , 05:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sethseth
Seems like hype/momentum/winning is overly accounted for in basketball lines and standard "regression to the norm" type analysis can get you somewhere. I guess I won't know until I do it some more so I'll just keep the betting super small.
You're not the first person to notice this about basketball lines. For whatever reason it just doesn't work that way. I'll give you an example I remember from CBB last year. I think it was Mrquette @ ND -5. At the half, Marquette was up by 4. The 2nd half line was ND -6.5. Now how does that make sense? They were supposed to beat Marquette by 5 in 40 minutes, but now, after proving themselves inferior to marquette after 20 minutes, they're supposed to beat Marq by even more in half the time?

But that's not uncommon. Those types of strange lines come up all the time, and in my first hand expereince, the sharp-looking side of it doesn't fair well. I don't bet 2nd half lines, because I can't get a handle on how the lines are created and I can't step out of the fishthink that you've displayed in your original post.

That's the real key here. The "analysis" in your OP is fishthink. When my sportsbetting cook friends or relatives talk about a bet, it sounds like what you wrote out. "they'll step it up at home." "Last year when these teams played...." "They'll slow it down in the 2nd half" All these statements that, well, you can't really argue with, but mean nothing.
Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Quote
05-31-2008 , 08:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dudeimstoked
it is hard to be +ev without any sort of mathematical model. you are betting on pure intuition and don't have any information that the books or the general public does not have.
well, a great handicapper could technically be weighing all the available public information in a better way

my guess is about 1 in 1000 are capable of that
Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Quote
05-31-2008 , 10:06 AM
the botton line is, you should be happy if you are up money overall in sportsbetting.

For me since Aug 2007 (incl. down 2k this month):

W 576
L 519
Hitting 52.60%
Balance +$16,564.09

I don't need to know whether I'm +ev in sportsbetting, but I'm not losing that's really all that matters.
Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Quote
05-31-2008 , 12:30 PM
When are people going to realize that a win % is absolutely useless the moment you place a wager at a varying line from another.
Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Quote
05-31-2008 , 02:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by B00T
When are people going to realize that a win % is absolutely useless the moment you place a wager at a varying line from another.
Never, which is why touts get away with so much bull****.
Tell me if I am +ev at NBA betting based on my analysis Quote

      
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