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Old 12-18-2009, 06:57 PM   #176
atrainpsu
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreamer View Post

Blind subsets can win but you have to look at why the market is overvaluing a spot.

If not, its musical chairs. You only know you don't have a chair until long after the music stops. (wins till it doesn't)

D.
Is the market really overlooking them? Books are shifting to +160 6pt 3 teamers, and teaser protecting "wongable" lines.

So still not really following what you're saying...

edit: Oh, if your referring more to Naj's system, I understand that, but not really seeing how this follows for the discussion in this thread.

Last edited by atrainpsu; 12-18-2009 at 06:59 PM. Reason: naj's cbb system
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Old 12-18-2009, 09:24 PM   #177
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

I know why the market is overvaluing short road dogs in cbb, I don't know why you think

a) teams lined at 1.5-2.5 or -7.5-8.5 are less efficient than before in NFL, or
b) why teams at 1.5-2.5 are now 'blindly overvalued.'

Again, if if the market is more efficient, that makes Wong Teasers better. Not the reverse [if some teams that were +1.5 are now PK then some that were PK are now +1.5, QED]. Maybe there are fewer of them but the extant ones should still win consistently.

But I notice you dodged that point quite adroitly so, GG sir. I'll assume from here on out you have no evidence of this until shown otherwise.

Also, wtf at the market not noticing as others have pointed out.
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Old 12-18-2009, 10:28 PM   #178
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Naj

While your argument is completely logical Dreamer is correct regarding BS teaser dogs. For whatever reasons both of those subsets have not been 'blind bet' profitable for the last few years.
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Old 12-18-2009, 11:47 PM   #179
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

back data... LOL

Last edited by MyTurn2Raise; 12-18-2009 at 11:52 PM. Reason: pic for lulz
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Old 12-19-2009, 03:45 AM   #180
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

come on now.
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Old 12-19-2009, 12:25 PM   #181
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by kdog View Post
Naj

While your argument is completely logical Dreamer is correct regarding BS teaser dogs. For whatever reasons both of those subsets have not been 'blind bet' profitable for the last few years.
Well, fair enough I guess, but investing in US stocks hasn't been profitable the past few years either [or 10] but I'll wager any amount they are profitable over the next 5-10 whether you want S&P500, Russell 2k or Midcap.

None of this is meant to say one can't perhaps do better by adding some data-crunching or eliminating certain teams. If he/you guys can do so, congrats, I'm sure its possible.
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Old 12-19-2009, 03:37 PM   #182
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

The only way one can believe that Wong teasers won't be profitable going forward is to also believe that either 1) Push Rates for individual points are going to change for some reason or 2) the subsets involved (faves 7.5-8.5, dogs 1.5-2.5) will be for some reason < 50% ATS.

As was already mentioned, markets getting more efficient should be a reason to bet more Wong teasers, not less.
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Old 12-19-2009, 06:13 PM   #183
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
The only way one can believe that Wong teasers won't be profitable going forward is to also believe that either 1) Push Rates for individual points are going to change for some reason or 2) the subsets involved (faves 7.5-8.5, dogs 1.5-2.5) will be for some reason < 50% ATS.

As was already mentioned, markets getting more efficient should be a reason to bet more Wong teasers, not less.
Dreamer wrote

Quote:
My own opinion is that Wong/BS teasers played blindly will be (at best) marginal winners going forward with a ****load of variance.
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Old 12-19-2009, 06:19 PM   #184
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Teasers are for losers
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Old 12-19-2009, 10:22 PM   #185
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Dreamer, define marginal. Variance I can handle.
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Old 12-20-2009, 02:27 AM   #186
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreamer View Post
Dreamer wrote
<insert splitting hairs pic>

Fine, replace "The only way one can believe that Wong teasers won't be profitable going forward is" with "the only way one can believe that Wong teasers will be less profitable going forward is".

The point is your argument is ass-backwards. More efficient markets are an argument for teasers, not against.
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Old 12-20-2009, 03:09 AM   #187
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

LEM
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Old 12-21-2009, 11:45 PM   #188
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

related:

**** you washington
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Old 12-22-2009, 12:36 AM   #189
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Yeah, I lost every dollar I wagered on a teaser this weekend. lol
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Old 12-22-2009, 12:48 AM   #190
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

there is reason to believe the push rates on 3 and 7 will not be as good in the future

ie, passing offenses with variance
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Old 12-22-2009, 12:59 AM   #191
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
there is reason to believe the push rates on 3 and 7 will not be as good in the future

ie, passing offenses with variance
Which means the real question is do we have an efficient market? Or an evolving one?
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Old 12-22-2009, 01:05 AM   #192
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

I'm confused by people being confused about what Dreamer is saying.

The wong teasers are profitable based on data that says "A 1.5 pt dog will win by 3 this often, 4 this often" etc.

He's saying in the past the small home dogs were undervalued so they won more often in part because they shouldn't actually have been small home dogs but more like pick'ems. As the lines have corrected you've lost that free point or two that you were getting before. I'm not sure what's complicated about that.
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Old 12-22-2009, 01:23 AM   #193
atrainpsu
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Because the value in teasers comes from picking up the 22%+ from the extra 6 pts, not because the team wins ATS 52%+ of the time.

Take a side that picks up 22% in a teaser and you can make money on them regardless of how often they win ATS.
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Old 12-22-2009, 01:27 AM   #194
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Its the 48% going forward that is in questions. That is a nice little edge on a market as big as NFL.
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Old 12-22-2009, 01:29 AM   #195
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Assuming anything isn't 50% going forward is a dangerous idea.
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Old 12-22-2009, 01:30 AM   #196
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

lol at my Engrish. But whenever Ben corroborates it makes me happy.


Rustjive,

I have the same issues with him IMO that you have with me.
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Old 12-22-2009, 09:20 AM   #197
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by GooGooDooDoo View Post
Teasers are for losers
repeat
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Old 12-22-2009, 01:21 PM   #198
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Dreamer does know how to make a timely exit.
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Old 12-22-2009, 04:15 PM   #199
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by atrainpsu View Post
Because the value in teasers comes from picking up the 22%+ from the extra 6 pts, not because the team wins ATS 52%+ of the time.

Take a side that picks up 22% in a teaser and you can make money on them regardless of how often they win ATS.
ty exactly.
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Old 12-22-2009, 06:44 PM   #200
Dreamer
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by atrainpsu View Post
Because the value in teasers comes from picking up the 22%+ from the extra 6 pts, not because the team wins ATS 52%+ of the time.

Take a side that picks up 22% in a teaser and you can make money on them regardless of how often they win ATS.
Wow, it's as if the ATS result has no bearing on the distribution of the result!

The BE leg winrate of a 3 T +180 is roughly 71% (70.95%)

If the subset is 53% and we gain 22%* we get 75%

If the subset is now 50% and we gain 22%* we get 72%

Do you realize the EV difference between the two examples!

Now run the same example using your numbers vs a 2 T at -110 (BE 72.37%)

I won't even include distribution factors around the true line plus the huge reduction in variance if you don't hedge or use the play as part of an expanded portfolio of plays.

Not sure why its so hard to believe that Wong teasers will win less going forward in certain spots than they have in the past.

You can't look at a teaser blindly, you have to look at the gain OVER the WA line.

Here is a post from 4 years ago where I explain this very principle to King Yao.

http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/fo...cgi/read/25734

D.

*your number!
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