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Old 12-11-2009, 02:19 AM   #126
MyTurn2Raise
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

and, yes, that video is actually making a point
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Old 12-11-2009, 02:26 AM   #127
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Mt2r, log on for a minute.
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Old 12-11-2009, 02:32 AM   #128
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Oh man, that is my favorite scene of that movie...
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Old 12-11-2009, 05:58 AM   #129
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
Pct outcomes I have assuming pinny's current line is the efficient market
Pitt -9.5 -102/-106 o33.5 -112/+102 (close to even split at o34)

Pitt -17 4.03%
Pitt -16 2.36%
Pitt -15 1.47%
Pitt -14 4.21%
Pitt -13 3.90%
Pitt -12 1.91%
Pitt -11 3.12%
Pitt -10 4.79%
Pitt -9 2.82%

Cleveland +17.5 about -300 BE
ty for all the feedback--revised model

Pitt -17 4.40%
Pitt -16 2.08%
Pitt -15 1.20%
Pitt -14 5.03%
Pitt -13 3.12%
Pitt -12 1.48%
Pitt -11 2.92%
Pitt -10 5.72%
Pitt -9 1.86%
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Old 12-11-2009, 08:30 PM   #130
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
ty for all the feedback--revised model

Pitt -17 4.40%
Pitt -16 2.08%
Pitt -15 1.20%
Pitt -14 5.03%
Pitt -13 3.12%
Pitt -12 1.48%
Pitt -11 2.92%
Pitt -10 5.72%
Pitt -9 1.86%
If you would be so kind, I would like to see your model that yields the outcome shown above in bold.
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Old 12-11-2009, 08:33 PM   #131
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
Meh. If you card count and only wong in at +5 TCs, you're an advantage player even if an idiot. Same thing applies here. Its incredibly easy to win money betting sports to anyone who cares enough to bother to invest 10m of their life. Not to mention being an advantage player is the 70s was as simple as carrying 2 backpacks, each full of money to different sportsbooks and betting -2.5 on one side and +4.5 on the other.
That, and playing SF21 ...


...and loving it!
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Old 12-12-2009, 12:56 AM   #132
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

on behalf of all the idiots in this forum (me obviously being a member) I would like to thank the major contributors to this thread
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Old 12-12-2009, 02:21 AM   #133
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

I didn't realize meaningful content was such a scarce commodity around here.
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Old 12-12-2009, 02:22 AM   #134
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

How did that o33 bet go on Thursday?
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Old 12-12-2009, 02:27 AM   #135
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

32.5, Grande. Best price in the world, loser. Welcome to my world.
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Old 12-12-2009, 02:31 AM   #136
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

That should have only been like a... 57% winner? Sucks.
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Old 12-12-2009, 02:52 AM   #137
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Oh I get it, the NFL bias thing. I thought for some reason you caught wind of Custer's opinion.

Don't why you keep the repeating the 57% figure. It should be obvious I don't think that's the rate going forward (plus for some reason I'm not really sold yet on the low totals Over). You're kind of stretching it for ways to flame me in your recent posts.
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Old 12-12-2009, 03:00 AM   #138
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Because its asinine data snooping that you're trying to pass off to your fanbois as not data snooping?
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Old 12-12-2009, 03:08 AM   #139
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

That Under big totals is legit IMO. Two very good reasons accompany it. There are similar biases that exist in 2H markets with much bigger samples.

Contrast that to the NBA Freaky Trend that was 56% over 1000+ plays and I couldn't fire because there was no reasonable explanation for it. You get the idea.
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Old 12-12-2009, 03:29 PM   #140
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

hooray for the u34.5/+10 correlated parlay last thursday
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Old 12-12-2009, 03:38 PM   #141
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Shipit is still in a state of euphoria from the victory.
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Old 12-12-2009, 04:42 PM   #142
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

As a beginner sports bettor, Id' like to say ty to everyone who posted in this thread
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Old 12-13-2009, 02:09 AM   #143
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

I would like to personally retract everything stated in this thread. My expertise is counterfeit, only a facade. I like to talk a big game on the internet but in reality I am a frustrated failure at sports betting who can't in good conscience lead others down a path toward my own misery.
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Old 12-13-2009, 04:37 AM   #144
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
My expertise is counterfeit, only a facade.
No it's not. You're just not as good as the game you talk, that's all.
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Old 12-13-2009, 10:28 AM   #145
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

first rule of good forum posting: NEVER admit fault, edit and talk more trash
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Old 12-13-2009, 02:52 PM   #146
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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No it's not. You're just not as good as the game you talk, that's all.
Not only a level-5 AP wizard, you're also an expert on the lives of internet strangers. Truly you are a man of infinite wisdom. Science, nay humanity, suffered a great loss when you directed the full force of that intellect toward the gaming arts.
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Old 12-13-2009, 02:55 PM   #147
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

What did he take as his level spell? Fireball, lightning bolt, wraithform?
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Old 12-14-2009, 03:28 PM   #148
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

sadly, PC doesn't realize that it is relationships and not money that leads to a long and happy life
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Old 12-14-2009, 03:35 PM   #149
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
sadly, PC doesn't realize that it is relationships and not money that leads to a long and happy life
Money or rather the lack of it, can make you unhappy though. But it has no real effect on happiness wrt upside.
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Old 12-14-2009, 03:37 PM   #150
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

PC making push to overtake negativezero as archnemesis of thremp.
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