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12-11-2009 , 02:19 AM

#126

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

and, yes, that video is actually making a point

Quote

12-11-2009 , 02:26 AM

#127

TomCowley

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 5,649

Mt2r, log on for a minute.

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12-11-2009 , 02:32 AM

#128

atrainpsu

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,840

Oh man, that is my favorite scene of that movie...

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12-11-2009 , 05:58 AM

#129

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

Pct outcomes I have assuming pinny's current line is the efficient market
Pitt -9.5 -102/-106 o33.5 -112/+102 (close to even split at o34)

Pitt -17 4.03%
Pitt -16 2.36%
Pitt -15 1.47%
Pitt -14 4.21%
Pitt -13 3.90%
Pitt -12 1.91%
Pitt -11 3.12%
Pitt -10 4.79%
Pitt -9 2.82%

Cleveland +17.5 about -300 BE

ty for all the feedback--revised model

Pitt -17 4.40%
Pitt -16 2.08%
Pitt -15 1.20%
Pitt -14 5.03%
Pitt -13 3.12%
Pitt -12 1.48%
Pitt -11 2.92%
Pitt -10 5.72%
Pitt -9 1.86%

Quote

12-11-2009 , 08:30 PM

#130

NegativeZero

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,358

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

ty for all the feedback--revised model

Pitt -17 4.40%
Pitt -16 2.08%
Pitt -15 1.20%
Pitt -14 5.03%
Pitt -13 3.12%
Pitt -12 1.48%
Pitt -11 2.92%
Pitt -10 5.72%
Pitt -9 1.86%

If you would be so kind, I would like to see your model that yields the outcome shown above in bold.

Quote

12-11-2009 , 08:33 PM

#131

NegativeZero

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,358

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

Meh. If you card count and only wong in at +5 TCs, you're an advantage player even if an idiot. Same thing applies here. Its incredibly easy to win money betting sports to anyone who cares enough to bother to invest 10m of their life. Not to mention being an advantage player is the 70s was as simple as carrying 2 backpacks, each full of money to different sportsbooks and betting -2.5 on one side and +4.5 on the other.

That, and playing SF21 ...

...and loving it!

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12-12-2009 , 12:56 AM

#132

whipsaw

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,912

on behalf of all the idiots in this forum (me obviously being a member) I would like to thank the major contributors to this thread

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12-12-2009 , 02:21 AM

#133

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

I didn't realize meaningful content was such a scarce commodity around here.

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12-12-2009 , 02:22 AM

#134

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

How did that o33 bet go on Thursday?

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12-12-2009 , 02:27 AM

#135

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

32.5, Grande. Best price in the world, loser. Welcome to my world.

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12-12-2009 , 02:31 AM

#136

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

That should have only been like a... 57% winner? Sucks.

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12-12-2009 , 02:52 AM

#137

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Oh I get it, the NFL bias thing. I thought for some reason you caught wind of Custer's opinion.

Don't why you keep the repeating the 57% figure. It should be obvious I don't think that's the rate going forward (plus for some reason I'm not really sold yet on the low totals Over). You're kind of stretching it for ways to flame me in your recent posts.

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12-12-2009 , 03:00 AM

#138

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Because its asinine data snooping that you're trying to pass off to your fanbois as not data snooping?

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12-12-2009 , 03:08 AM

#139

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

That Under big totals is legit IMO. Two very good reasons accompany it. There are similar biases that exist in 2H markets with much bigger samples.

Contrast that to the NBA Freaky Trend that was 56% over 1000+ plays and I couldn't fire because there was no reasonable explanation for it. You get the idea.

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12-12-2009 , 03:29 PM

#140

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

hooray for the u34.5/+10 correlated parlay last thursday

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12-12-2009 , 03:38 PM

#141

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Shipit is still in a state of euphoria from the victory.

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12-12-2009 , 04:42 PM

#142

TomW

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 435

As a beginner sports bettor, Id' like to say ty to everyone who posted in this thread

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12-13-2009 , 02:09 AM

#143

ImStillBen

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,790

I would like to personally retract everything stated in this thread. My expertise is counterfeit, only a facade. I like to talk a big game on the internet but in reality I am a frustrated failure at sports betting who can't in good conscience lead others down a path toward my own misery.

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12-13-2009 , 04:37 AM

#144

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImStillBen

My expertise is counterfeit, only a facade.

No it's not. You're just not as good as the game you talk, that's all.

Quote

12-13-2009 , 10:28 AM

#145

trixtrix

adept

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 863

first rule of good forum posting: NEVER admit fault, edit and talk more trash

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12-13-2009 , 02:52 PM

#146

ImStillBen

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,790

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

No it's not. You're just not as good as the game you talk, that's all.

Not only a level-5 AP wizard, you're also an expert on the lives of internet strangers. Truly you are a man of infinite wisdom. Science, nay humanity, suffered a great loss when you directed the full force of that intellect toward the gaming arts.

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12-13-2009 , 02:55 PM

#147

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

What did he take as his level spell? Fireball, lightning bolt, wraithform?

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12-14-2009 , 03:28 PM

#148

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

sadly, PC doesn't realize that it is relationships and not money that leads to a long and happy life

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12-14-2009 , 03:35 PM

#149

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

sadly, PC doesn't realize that it is relationships and not money that leads to a long and happy life

Money or rather the lack of it, can make you unhappy though. But it has no real effect on happiness wrt upside.

Quote

12-14-2009 , 03:37 PM

#150

ProfessorBen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 9,897

PC making push to overtake negativezero as archnemesis of thremp.

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