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Old 12-09-2009, 08:50 PM   #101
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

You wouldn't know. People in this thread have only made the point like 5 times that how the game is lined matters.
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Old 12-09-2009, 08:51 PM   #102
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
want a cookie?

try to come up with a list of possible outcomes (the final score for both teams) with a median outcome of Dal -2.5 and the Total slightly above 45...
as you know, this isn't basketball with near continuous distributions
the scoring in various chunks that don't relate too well with each other accounts for the -1/+1 stuff in the various push charts

my advice: get better at the maths
Awesome, someone actually posting some thoughtful reasoning itt. That's a whole box of cookies compared to the first 6 pages. Thank god it has nothing to do with "Home and Away splits".

Still not buying it though. One team's outcome is very much dependent on the other's. E.g., the Giants have a very low chance of scoring 22 points but if the Cowboys happen to score 25 then Giants = 22 chances zoom up. You can't treat every Team Total like an independent outcome like that.

Less number crunching, more common sense. Let's go!
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Old 12-09-2009, 10:40 PM   #103
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

lol. What a ****ing idiot.
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Old 12-10-2009, 01:29 AM   #104
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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lol. What a ****ing idiot.
This is what I thought rape pwning was back in 2001. You'll learn.
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Old 12-10-2009, 05:47 PM   #105
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Perhaps we can continue this discussion for the Steelers/Browns game...

At 5dimes we can get Browns +17.5 with the 6pt ties win at -105, which equates to -251.7. Looks good considering, 5dimes is offering Pitt -17.5 +254 as an alternate, and others are right in the same neighborhood.

Problem is finding another good leg at 5dimes...Miami +8.5 seems okay, maybe Washington +6.5?
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Old 12-10-2009, 05:54 PM   #106
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

you're such a good poster atrainpsu
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Old 12-10-2009, 05:54 PM   #107
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Awesome, someone actually posting some thoughtful reasoning itt. That's a whole box of cookies compared to the first 6 pages. Thank god it has nothing to do with "Home and Away splits".

Still not buying it though. One team's outcome is very much dependent on the other's. E.g., the Giants have a very low chance of scoring 22 points but if the Cowboys happen to score 25 then Giants = 22 chances zoom up. You can't treat every Team Total like an independent outcome like that.

Less number crunching, more common sense. Let's go!
who said I'm treating the team outcomes as independent?
pretty sure I haven't disclosed how I'm doing it
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Old 12-10-2009, 05:56 PM   #108
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Bengals maybe? 6.5 everywhere else w/ lean towards 6, equivalent to getting the 7, 10, 13, 14.

This is just eyeballing it, obv.

Edit: Man, I'm reading your post wrong. Thought you were teasing 6.5, nvm.
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Old 12-10-2009, 06:00 PM   #109
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Pct outcomes I have assuming pinny's current line is the efficient market
Pitt -9.5 -102/-106 o33.5 -112/+102 (close to even split at o34)

Pitt -17 4.03%
Pitt -16 2.36%
Pitt -15 1.47%
Pitt -14 4.21%
Pitt -13 3.90%
Pitt -12 1.91%
Pitt -11 3.12%
Pitt -10 4.79%
Pitt -9 2.82%

Cleveland +17.5 about -300 BE

Last edited by MyTurn2Raise; 12-10-2009 at 06:05 PM.
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Old 12-10-2009, 06:03 PM   #110
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

I just looked at Green Bay+3.5 looks strong with the HPC.

Washington +6.5 looks bad, though the low total might make it a lil better.

Havent looked at others.
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Old 12-10-2009, 06:11 PM   #111
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Problem is finding another good leg at 5dimes...Miami +8.5 seems okay, maybe Washington +6.5?
Detroit +20.5 is 70.6% IMO
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Old 12-10-2009, 06:13 PM   #112
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
Pct outcomes I have assuming pinny's current line is the efficient market
Pitt -9.5 -102/-106 o33.5 -112/+102 (close to even split at o34)

Pitt -17 4.03%
Pitt -16 2.36%
Pitt -15 1.47%
Pitt -14 4.21%
Pitt -13 3.90%
Pitt -12 1.91%
Pitt -11 3.12%
Pitt -10 4.79%
Pitt -9 2.82%

Cleveland +17.5 about -300 BE
Well...I don't know how you arrived at the numbers, but I like the result. I'll assume your not just throwing darts. Sending PM...
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Old 12-10-2009, 06:20 PM   #113
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

These threads are great. Idiots in this forum make people give out their rice bowls. Keep it up, PC.
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Old 12-10-2009, 06:36 PM   #114
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

O/U 2.5 people take up what is being discussed here that were not doing it before?
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Old 12-10-2009, 06:37 PM   #115
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

It revitalized my interest in the subject.
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Old 12-10-2009, 06:38 PM   #116
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
O/U 2.5 people take up what is being discussed here that were not doing it before?
Over easily. Like I have a DB, and that immediately makes 2 people. Well 3 already since I touted.
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Old 12-10-2009, 06:46 PM   #117
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

, I think I just gave away what I do with my time
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Old 12-10-2009, 07:05 PM   #118
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

lol +6 ties win? GTFO.

Hook up the browns +17/Texans -1 ties win IMO
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Old 12-10-2009, 08:53 PM   #119
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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lol +6 ties win? GTFO.

Hook up the browns +17/Texans -1 ties win IMO
This wasn't 5dimes was it? I only remember seeing -7.5/1.5 there.
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Old 12-10-2009, 08:57 PM   #120
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

It was 7 when I peeped.
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Old 12-11-2009, 12:44 AM   #121
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
who said I'm treating the team outcomes as independent?
pretty sure I haven't disclosed how I'm doing it
OK now we are getting somewhere. I'll take that as an acknowledgment you agree the Team Totals should not be treated independently when assigning probabilities to your scores. Well, one of the things that they depend on is who is the damn underdog. If Team A is a big fave over Team B and you give Team B a Team Total of 21, Team A's push rate of 20 goes down simply because they are the big pregame favourite. Or put it this way, Team A's push rate of 20 would be higher if they were favoured by less. You have to apply this variable in such a way that holds true to the intuitively obvious notion that an underdog favoured by x can never be a good bet at +100 over the fave winning by x.

Likewise you can't stare at something like a DAL by 4 : DAL by 5 ratio of 2.5, see the Gaints' counterpart at 1.5 and not get worried about that either. There's just no reasonable explanation for push rates to fluctuate like that. I'll bet you anything if you start tweaking the market lines you are dealing with up or down a couple of points you will not be comfortable with how much you see your push rates start bouncing up and down.

You can be the world's best stathead but you're not going to get anywhere if you can't interpret your results properly. Here you have obvious red lights screaming at you that there's something wrong with your methodology. You have to find out what it is and fix it.
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Old 12-11-2009, 12:46 AM   #122
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
Pitt -13 3.90%
MY EYES! MY EYES!
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Old 12-11-2009, 12:56 AM   #123
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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OK now we are getting somewhere. I'll take that as an acknowledgment you agree the Team Totals should not be treated independently when assigning probabilities to your scores. Well, one of the things that they depend on is who is the damn underdog. If Team A is a big fave over Team B and you give Team B a Team Total of 21, Team A's push rate of 20 goes down simply because they are the big pregame favourite. Or put it this way, Team A's push rate of 20 would be higher if they were favoured by less. You have to apply this variable in such a way that holds true to the intuitively obvious notion that an underdog favoured by x can never be a good bet at +100 over the fave winning by x.

Likewise you can't stare at something like a DAL by 4 : DAL by 5 ratio of 2.5, see the Gaints' counterpart at 1.5 and not get worried about that either. There's just no reasonable explanation for push rates to fluctuate like that. I'll bet you anything if you start tweaking the market lines you are dealing with up or down a couple of points you will not be comfortable with how much you see your push rates start bouncing up and down.

You can be the world's best stathead but you're not going to get anywhere if you can't interpret your results properly. Here you have obvious red lights screaming at you that there's something wrong with your methodology. You have to find out what it is and fix it.
1) Can you stop spelling favor like a dildo?
2) Have you attempted NHL derivatives, I'm sure your ideas would just slay that market
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Old 12-11-2009, 01:01 AM   #124
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
Pitt -9 2.82%
MY EYES! MY EYES!
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Old 12-11-2009, 02:18 AM   #125
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

sigh... I feel like Mrs. Clever
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