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Old 12-08-2009, 10:59 PM   #76
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Ah. Now you're a statistical model expert. Good to know. How would you be able to discern this, since you'd fail a Stats 101 exam?
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Old 12-08-2009, 11:39 PM   #77
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Anyone with common sense can discern it. I've only mentioned out how about a thousand times already.

How's about an opinion on the NYG by 5 > DAL by 5 thing?

Last edited by PerpetualCzech; 12-08-2009 at 11:51 PM. Reason: ETA
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Old 12-08-2009, 11:51 PM   #78
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
Anyone with common sense can discern it. I've only mentioned out how about a thousand times already.
Ah. You're relying on "common sense". gud one
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Old 12-09-2009, 12:23 AM   #79
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Without knowing whether or not what you've pointed out happens with +1/-1 and +5/-5, PC, I will say that this type of 'reverse' action happens in large markets in other sports.
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Old 12-09-2009, 12:37 AM   #80
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by Rustjive View Post
Without knowing whether or not what you've pointed out happens with +1/-1 and +5/-5, PC, I will say that this type of 'reverse' action happens in large markets in other sports.
Don't follow. You're saying there are situations where a dog winning by x > fave winning by x? I guess I could see it happening in weird situations, like maybe an NHL coach who likes to pull his goalie a lot more than the opposing coach. There's nothing like that going on in this game though.
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Old 12-09-2009, 12:43 AM   #81
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

CMON MAN

HOME SPLITS = AWAY SPLITS
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Old 12-09-2009, 12:47 AM   #82
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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You made 1/2/4 exactly equal, and rounded off every number like we're in bizzaro whole number world, and you have the gall to mock someone else's calcs?
As mentioned before these were only approximations. I totally agree that any serious model that comes out with figures exactly the same for two different numbers would indicate sloppiness on the part of its methodology.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
DAL 8 0.01306895
DAL 5 0.01306895
Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
NYG 2 0.018026138
NYG 5 0.018026138
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Old 12-09-2009, 12:58 AM   #83
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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CMON MAN

HOME SPLITS = AWAY SPLITS
Yeah. There are plenty of reasons for believing a Home Team has a greater propensity to win the game by exactly 5 points than the Away Team. I don't want to say them though because that's too much information for a public forum.
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Old 12-09-2009, 01:00 AM   #84
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

And posting a strategy that produces 57% winners isn't.


BIMO
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Old 12-09-2009, 01:07 AM   #85
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
Anyone with common sense can discern it. I've only mentioned out how about a thousand times already.

How's about an opinion on the NYG by 5 > DAL by 5 thing?
think harder

there is a reason for this
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Old 12-09-2009, 01:19 AM   #86
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
Yeah. There are plenty of reasons for believing a Home Team has a greater propensity to win the game by exactly 5 points than the Away Team. I don't want to say them though because that's too much information for a public forum.

If only there was a pay forum where serious posters would share such information universally across the board.


I keed, I keed.


I can't even get straight non-conflicting information regarding team totals.
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Old 12-09-2009, 02:48 AM   #87
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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I can't even get straight non-conflicting information regarding team totals.
are people disagreeing with my total information as well?

at least the 2 I posted shipped
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Old 12-09-2009, 03:06 AM   #88
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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are people disagreeing with my total information as well?

at least the 2 I posted shipped
A big LOL @ the idea of posting Team Totals instead of just whacking them down to the proper price. I like my friends, but not enough to give them free money.
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Old 12-09-2009, 03:11 AM   #89
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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A big LOL @ the idea of posting Team Totals instead of just whacking them down to the proper price. I like my friends, but not enough to give them free money.
I guess you fail at life as much as you fail at statistics
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Old 12-09-2009, 04:03 AM   #90
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Another tipped hand. It still makes me as giddy today as ever. I'm such a degen.

At some point you guys are going to have to acknowledge the experience factor here.
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Old 12-09-2009, 08:01 AM   #91
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Another tipped hand. It still makes me as giddy today as ever. I'm such a degen.

At some point you guys are going to have to acknowledge the experience factor here.
Doesn't mean ****. I rape pwned Post Oak recently who has been an advantage gambler longer than I've been alive. He didn't know what he was talking about.

I personally find this argument quite funny, since it involves statistical analysis which you admittedly suck ballsack at, yet you have some proprietary knowledge that is too good for a public forum. Yet it has to be as good as giving away 57% picks (Instead of whacking them down to the proper price).
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Old 12-09-2009, 10:51 AM   #92
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

My final thought on this thread --- teasers are for suckers!!! How much did the OP lose on this one?zsz
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Old 12-09-2009, 12:14 PM   #93
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
A big LOL @ the idea of posting Team Totals instead of just whacking them down to the proper price. I like my friends, but not enough to give them free money.
You have no fkn idea what you are talking about.
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Old 12-09-2009, 12:15 PM   #94
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

LOL @ post croak being an ap, when did this happen?
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Old 12-09-2009, 01:16 PM   #95
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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LOL @ post croak being an ap, when did this happen?
Meh. If you card count and only wong in at +5 TCs, you're an advantage player even if an idiot. Same thing applies here. Its incredibly easy to win money betting sports to anyone who cares enough to bother to invest 10m of their life. Not to mention being an advantage player is the 70s was as simple as carrying 2 backpacks, each full of money to different sportsbooks and betting -2.5 on one side and +4.5 on the other.
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Old 12-09-2009, 04:39 PM   #96
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
Don't follow. You're saying there are situations where a dog winning by x > fave winning by x? I guess I could see it happening in weird situations, like maybe an NHL coach who likes to pull his goalie a lot more than the opposing coach. There's nothing like that going on in this game though.
want a cookie?

try to come up with a list of possible outcomes (the final score for both teams) with a median outcome of Dal -2.5 and the Total slightly above 45...
as you know, this isn't basketball with near continuous distributions
the scoring in various chunks that don't relate too well with each other accounts for the -1/+1 stuff in the various push charts

my advice: get better at the maths
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Old 12-09-2009, 04:59 PM   #97
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

in case you still need help
the Giants -1 was 3 to 4 points off of the median spread
the Cowboys -1 was 1 to 2 points off of the median spread

Guess which one is more likely to happen?
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Old 12-09-2009, 07:11 PM   #98
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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my advice: get better at the maths
for a guy that thinks the game ending on 3 is only 9% ... you sure have a lot of balls to talk **** in this thread.
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Old 12-09-2009, 07:16 PM   #99
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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My final thought on this thread --- teasers are for suckers!!! How much did the OP lose on this one?zsz
Dude.

Shut up. You don't know what you're talking about at all.
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Old 12-09-2009, 08:15 PM   #100
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Dude.

Shut up. You don't know what you're talking about at all.
Any one who thinks that the game should end with a 3 point differential 9% of the time, please raise your hand.
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