Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-05-2009, 04:53 PM   #51
PerpetualCzech
adept
 
PerpetualCzech's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 863
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by GooGooDooDoo View Post
Do you disagree or are you confused? I'm confused. If you disagree, why?
The MO around here is to throw around lots of LOLs without actually having to show your own work. Showing your work means opening it up to scrutiny and and that's no good because people then find out you're not as good as you say you are. Sort of like what's going to happen to Ben and his chart later today.
PerpetualCzech is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-05-2009, 04:54 PM   #52
PerpetualCzech
adept
 
PerpetualCzech's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 863
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
Based on the market when I posted:

DAL 9+ 0.277602524
DAL 8 0.01306895
DAL 7 0.047769265
DAL 6 0.031545741
DAL 5 0.01306895
DAL 4 0.034700315
DAL 3 0.097341145
DAL 2 0.021631365
DAL 1 0.020730059
DAL 0 0.000901307
NYG 1 0.023433979
NYG 2 0.018026138
NYG 3 0.081117621
NYG 4 0.0261379
NYG 5 0.018026138
NYG 6+ 0.274898603

DAL +5 -257.2131148
NYG +8 -260.2272727
QFT
PerpetualCzech is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-05-2009, 05:24 PM   #53
Thremp
banned
 
Thremp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: I lurve bewbs
Posts: 36,452
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
The MO around here is to throw around lots of LOLs without actually having to show your own work. Showing your work means opening it up to scrutiny and and that's no good because people then find out you're not as good as you say you are. Sort of like what's going to happen to Ben and his chart later today.
You made 1/2/4 exactly equal, and rounded off every number like we're in bizzaro whole number world, and you have the gall to mock someone else's calcs?
Thremp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-05-2009, 05:58 PM   #54
trixtrix
adept
 
trixtrix's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 863
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

screw the 1/2/4 calcs, i want to hear more about who has more net worths online..
trixtrix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-05-2009, 07:02 PM   #55
Rustjive
old hand
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: unparalleled quantum superposition
Posts: 1,311
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

I get 386 times covered, 13 pushes on 5, 549 total games. The road team subset performs markedly worse though...
Rustjive is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2009, 02:07 AM   #56
PerpetualCzech
adept
 
PerpetualCzech's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 863
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
You made 1/2/4 exactly equal, and rounded off every number like we're in bizzaro whole number world, and you have the gall to mock someone else's calcs?
That's kinda the point. Same as the Celtics bet, all it takes is a back-of-the-envelope-pull-out-of-your-ass calculation to show his bet was -EV. Plus it ended up that it's a close call which one of our sets of numbers was more accurate. I will elaborate later. It's been a long day.
PerpetualCzech is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2009, 02:13 AM   #57
PerpetualCzech
adept
 
PerpetualCzech's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 863
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by ClayRaiken View Post
Well the numbers you used to "disprove" him were not correct.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx
Hi there! Just wanted to let you know that even though for some reason you stopped posting, I know you are still following this thread and I thought your performance within was terrific reading. In case you felt like posting more, don't be shy! Cheers!
PerpetualCzech is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2009, 09:59 AM   #58
Thremp
banned
 
Thremp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: I lurve bewbs
Posts: 36,452
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
That's kinda the point. Same as the Celtics bet, all it takes is a back-of-the-envelope-pull-out-of-your-ass calculation to show his bet was -EV. Plus it ended up that it's a close call which one of our sets of numbers was more accurate. I will elaborate later. It's been a long day.
Okay. At first glance your numbers are 100% idiot. His... maybe not. That is good enough for me.

GL with your back of the envelope stuff BTW. More proof for my thesis.
Thremp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2009, 02:35 PM   #59
MyTurn2Raise
Drug Free MVP
 
MyTurn2Raise's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Descalso, Jay, and the pitcher
Posts: 40,622
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
The MO around here is to throw around lots of LOLs without actually having to show your own work. Showing your work means opening it up to scrutiny and and that's no good because people then find out you're not as good as you say you are. Sort of like what's going to happen to Ben and his chart later today.
your work should that you have no clue in that instance
it was abusing statistics
MyTurn2Raise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-07-2009, 12:57 AM   #60
chucky
Pooh-Bah
 
chucky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Best time Evar
Posts: 4,998
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
your work should that you have no clue in that instance
it was abusing statistics
You mean "Showed"?
chucky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-07-2009, 02:48 AM   #61
shipitkthx
Pooh-Bah
 
shipitkthx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,094
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

I live a very lonely existence.
shipitkthx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-07-2009, 05:15 AM   #62
PerpetualCzech
adept
 
PerpetualCzech's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 863
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
Okay. At first glance your numbers are 100% idiot.
More mudslinging with zero reasoning or evidence to back it up. You would absolutely floor me (and I suspect most reading this) by posting your own numbers. I'm not holding my breath.

My NYG by Four was definitely low. My NYG by Three was high, and a decent bit higher than my error on the Four (for useful reasons anyone paying attention would have learned). Of course I had a margin of error attached to my numbers but it was low enough that no further accuracy was going to get that teaser to be +EV, so I didn't bother. All I wanted to do was point out it was a crap bet.

Now let's take a look at his chart. LMFAO at the quotes to 7-8-9 significant digits. But whatever, the point is that any cursory 10-second glance and a bit of common sense will show major flaws in his program. The underdog has a greater chance to win by One or Five than the favourite does. Impossible. Look at the ratio of Dall by Four wins to Dall by Five wins and compare them to the counterparts for NYG. They are wildly off. These ratios should be very similar if not identical. Try it with a bunch of others and you will see similar discrepancies.

He's tipped his hand several times. Can't beat the most fundamental sportsbetting markets (matchbook). Can't remember simple approximations of Push Rates (the One and the Two). Posts -EV teasers (Note I was not the only one to catch this). And I'm supposed to be an underdog to this circus act. You'll have to excuse me for tilting a little.
PerpetualCzech is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-07-2009, 11:27 AM   #63
Rustjive
old hand
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: unparalleled quantum superposition
Posts: 1,311
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

To be honest, everyone's #s in this thread are awful, mine included.
Rustjive is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-07-2009, 03:09 PM   #64
MyTurn2Raise
Drug Free MVP
 
MyTurn2Raise's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Descalso, Jay, and the pitcher
Posts: 40,622
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

my numbers are awesome
here they are at the beginning when these posts were made
efficient market had the spread Dal -2.5, but shaded toward 2 direction instead of 3
The total was shaded under 45.5 and over 45

NYG +9 2.10%
NYG +8 1.85%
NYG +7 3.28%
NYG +6 3.92%
NYG +5 1.80%
NYG +4 3.34%
NYG +3 5.00%
NYG +2 2.13%
NYG +1 2.36%
Tie 0.11%
NYG -1 2.93%
NYG -2 1.88%
NYG -3 4.18%
NYG -4 3.00%
NYG -5 1.58%

Last edited by MyTurn2Raise; 12-07-2009 at 03:18 PM.
MyTurn2Raise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-07-2009, 03:44 PM   #65
arcdog
old hand
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: augusta, georgia
Posts: 1,822
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
No argument there. Now all you guys have to do is learn how to make a bet. "Rarely funded" at MB and no shame in admitting it. For the love of god.
"+10000000" doesnt mean what you think it means.
arcdog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-07-2009, 03:45 PM   #66
GooGooDooDoo
centurion
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 101
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

These numbers make no senses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post

NYG +3 5.00%

...

NYG -3 4.18%
You have the game ending on 3 (either team winning) at only 9.18% of the time?

besides, if those are your numbers, does that mean you agree with Czech that the teaser is a bad bet?
GooGooDooDoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-07-2009, 10:58 PM   #67
PerpetualCzech
adept
 
PerpetualCzech's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 863
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
NYG +9 2.10%
NYG +8 1.85%
NYG +7 3.28%
NYG +6 3.92%
NYG +5 1.80%
NYG +4 3.34%
NYG +3 5.00%
NYG +2 2.13%
NYG +1 2.36%
Tie 0.11%
NYG -1 2.93%
NYG -2 1.88%
NYG -3 4.18%
NYG -4 3.00%
NYG -5 1.58%
Good choice to go hundredths. Tenths is really all you need but given the performance of everyone else so far this is a vast improvement.
PerpetualCzech is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-08-2009, 12:35 AM   #68
hedgie43
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,211
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Good choice to go hundredths. Tenths is really all you need but given the performance of everyone else so far this is a vast improvement.
You really think 4.18 and 5.00% for each 3 is more accurate than Ben's numbers?
hedgie43 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-08-2009, 01:12 AM   #69
PerpetualCzech
adept
 
PerpetualCzech's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 863
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by hedgie43 View Post
You really think 4.18 and 5.00% for each 3 is more accurate than Ben's numbers?
PerpetualCzech is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-08-2009, 05:16 PM   #70
ImStillBen
banned
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,790
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Cliff Notes if this thread were in HSNL:

-Jman28 posts a hand where he 4-bets 52s pre-flop.

-Tom McEvoy says 52s is a bad hand.

-Jman28 details his accompanying reads, assumptions and math showing the play to be correct, generally giving too much insight for a public forum.

-Tom McEvoy says 52s is a bad hand and Jman28 is bad at poker.

-Jman28 laughs and returns to crushing.
ImStillBen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-08-2009, 05:22 PM   #71
MyTurn2Raise
Drug Free MVP
 
MyTurn2Raise's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Descalso, Jay, and the pitcher
Posts: 40,622
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by hedgie43 View Post
You really think 4.18 and 5.00% for each 3 is more accurate than Ben's numbers?
yeah... I've noticed this with the 3 before
my numbers are always lower than anyone I talk with for that particular spot
usually, if you're the only guy pissing in the wind, you're wrong
thus, I'm likely wrong on that
I just cannot figure out where
MyTurn2Raise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-08-2009, 07:35 PM   #72
PerpetualCzech
adept
 
PerpetualCzech's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 863
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
math showing the play to be correct
Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
DAL 1 0.020730059
NYG 1 0.023433979
Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
DAL 5 0.01306895
NYG 5 0.018026138
<head exploding pic>
PerpetualCzech is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-08-2009, 08:40 PM   #73
ImStillBen
banned
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,790
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

I might be interested in discussing statistical analysis with someone that doesn't think a chi-square test is "High Level Stats", can define 'normal distribution' and knows what a standard deviation is!

(My apologies to Tom McEvoy and his family.)
ImStillBen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-08-2009, 09:48 PM   #74
Thremp
banned
 
Thremp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: I lurve bewbs
Posts: 36,452
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

ImBen with a distinct advantage.
Thremp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-08-2009, 10:57 PM   #75
PerpetualCzech
adept
 
PerpetualCzech's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 863
Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
ImBen with a distinct advantage.
Yes, we've already established in Post #35 that Ben > PC in stats. Trouble is stats don't do you a whole lot of good when just a little common sense a high schooler could understand exposes flaws in your models.

This is only about the hundredth poseur I've gone after on the boards in the last 9 years. Trust me, you do not want to be backing the guy who's first in with the net worth comparisons and the "I crush" boasts. Bigtime bettor who is still allowed to bet teasers and doesn't use MB. Good grief.

The bet was bad. The model he uses is nowhere near accurate enough to identify a -244 to -257 advantage. Now people know for the next time.
PerpetualCzech is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:55 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online