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Old 12-04-2009, 08:42 PM   #26
ImStillBen
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
No thanks. I already got suckered into that once before and you never showed up.
Yeah, I never showed up in the 12 hours overnight between his offer and Garnett's injury news. What a p ssy I am to not impossibly fund Matchbook in that time.

I know you're awful at math and betting sports but you can't actually be this stupid.
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Old 12-04-2009, 08:58 PM   #27
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
Based on the market when I posted:

DAL 9+ 0.277602524
DAL 8 0.01306895
DAL 7 0.047769265
DAL 6 0.031545741
DAL 5 0.01306895
DAL 4 0.034700315
DAL 3 0.097341145
DAL 2 0.021631365
DAL 1 0.020730059
DAL 0 0.000901307
NYG 1 0.023433979
NYG 2 0.018026138
NYG 3 0.081117621
NYG 4 0.0261379
NYG 5 0.018026138
NYG 6+ 0.274898603

DAL +5 -257.2131148
NYG +8 -260.2272727
So you've got a +2.5 dog that has a greater chance to win by One than the -2.5 fave does. How is that remotely possible. Methinks your little program may have a bit of a flaw it in somewhere.

Anyways, add up all your percentages and you still fail to reach the 20.7% you need for your +5 teaser so who knows why you were recommending it. Also, extra bonus tip for actually stepping up and showing your work: take a look at what happens to the value of the Three in the NFL as total gets higher.
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Old 12-04-2009, 09:09 PM   #28
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
What a p ssy I am to not impossibly fund Matchbook in that time.
No, the p ssy part is talking like this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
How much do you want?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
How much will you match at -600?
without having any funds available to do so and (we both know, don't we?) no intention either.
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Old 12-04-2009, 09:25 PM   #29
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
So you've got a +2.5 dog that has a greater chance to win by One than the -2.5 fave does. How is that remotely possible. Methinks your little program may have a bit of a flaw it in somewhere.
Perhaps it's one of those data-mined angles you're so fond of that lose money going forward. Keep us posted.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
Anyways, add up all your percentages and you still fail to reach the 20.7% you need for your +5 teaser so who knows why you were recommending it. Also, extra bonus tip for actually stepping up and showing your work: take a look at what happens to the value of the Three in the NFL as total gets higher.
This may be foreign to you but laying -244 when the line should be -257 has positive expectation. /coach
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Old 12-04-2009, 09:27 PM   #30
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Perhaps it's one of those data-mined angles you're so fond of that lose money going forward. Keep us posted.
!!!!!!!!!!!!

validation, this is +EV for me
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Old 12-04-2009, 09:39 PM   #31
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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without having any funds available to do so and (we both know, don't we?) no intention either.
I'm 90% confident I have more than your net worth in money offshore. I might maybe possibly could have transferred/deposited to MB at some point before the start of the playoffs. Clearly it is ridiculous for me to ask how much action we were talking about before going through the hassle and expense of moving money somewhere I have little use for. Aw but then it was all moot the next morning when your little secret broke and you were sad.
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Old 12-04-2009, 09:45 PM   #32
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

sportsbetting: pc -115/ ben -115
mma: pc +240/ ben -300
chess: pc -400/ ben +300

betting window is open, players

*5$ max if you have 250+ posts on 2p2
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Old 12-04-2009, 09:52 PM   #33
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
This may be foreign to you but laying -244 when the line should be -257 has positive expectation. /coach
LMAO how do you possibly get your +5 teaser picking up 22.0%.

I get it now. This is all one big level to see how long you can string me along to keep replying to your constant stream of Mickey Mouse analysis. Half of the day with a full NBA card. I guess you got me pretty good.
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Old 12-04-2009, 09:56 PM   #34
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Stats 101: PC +10000000

No side on ImBen.
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Old 12-04-2009, 10:00 PM   #35
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Stats 101: PC +10000000

No side on ImBen.
No argument there. Now all you guys have to do is learn how to make a bet. "Rarely funded" at MB and no shame in admitting it. For the love of god.
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Old 12-04-2009, 10:08 PM   #36
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

lol
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Old 12-04-2009, 10:15 PM   #37
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

are we supposed to add these numbers?

DAL 2 0.021631365
DAL 1 0.020730059
DAL 0 0.000901307
NYG 1 0.023433979
NYG 2 0.018026138
NYG 3 0.081117621
NYG 4 0.0261379
NYG 5 0.018026138

I get 0.21

0.21 + 0.50 = 0.71. 0.71 equals -245 money line.

Are we supposed to add all of the value of the 5? or just half?

if just half, then

0.20 + 0.50 = 0.70. 0.70 equals -235 money line.

could be either way.

but, isn't it too close to call? Couldn't the true value be -255 or -230?

teasers suck.
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Old 12-04-2009, 10:22 PM   #38
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

What does that negative number after -1 mean on Pinny?
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Old 12-04-2009, 10:29 PM   #39
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by GooGooDooDoo View Post
Are we supposed to add all of the value of the 5? or just half?
The latter.

ETA: Actually, about 3/4s of it ...

Last edited by PerpetualCzech; 12-04-2009 at 10:33 PM. Reason: ETA
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Old 12-04-2009, 10:37 PM   #40
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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The latter.

ETA: Actually, about 3/4s of it ...

?????
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Old 12-04-2009, 11:08 PM   #41
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by GooGooDooDoo View Post
?????
It depends on the rules you have for your teaser. The more generous the rule for pushes, the more you should add. I guess it really only applies on 3 and 4 teamers where the push reduces the teaser by one leg.

Basically the reason is rooted in the fact you get approx. 3/4 of your potential payout back on a push, not half. Here is a good thread that may explain better than I can:

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/forum...AR_MSGDBTABLE=
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Old 12-04-2009, 11:13 PM   #42
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

I get any tie is a loser for any teaser. I need a new bookie.
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Old 12-04-2009, 11:18 PM   #43
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by GooGooDooDoo View Post
I get any tie is a loser for any teaser. I need a new bookie.
Then in your case you add 0% the value of the Five
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Old 12-04-2009, 11:19 PM   #44
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Then in your case you add 0% the value of the Five
#%*%&#@*%&@#(
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Old 12-05-2009, 02:28 AM   #45
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
LMAO how do you possibly get your +5 teaser picking up 22.0%.

I get it now. This is all one big level to see how long you can string me along to keep replying to your constant stream of Mickey Mouse analysis. Half of the day with a full NBA card. I guess you got me pretty good.
I'm thoroughly amused and not at all surprised you don't understand this.
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Old 12-05-2009, 02:35 AM   #46
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by trixtrix View Post
sportsbetting: pc -115/ ben -115
IB

Quote:
Originally Posted by trixtrix View Post
mma: pc +240/ ben -300
PC

Quote:
Originally Posted by trixtrix View Post
chess: pc -400/ ben +300
PC

These should all be closer to ∞.
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Old 12-05-2009, 03:05 AM   #47
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
No argument there. Now all you guys have to do is learn how to make a bet. "Rarely funded" at MB and no shame in admitting it. For the love of god.
Oh MB, how I love thee, let me count the ways...

-Cloned Pinnacle lines available only on rock solid markets; empty screen on everything else.

-Post a legit offer and then babysit it your whole life until the market moves against you and some API bot picks it off within 1 femtosecond.

-Straights only.

-Software lags like a 2400 baud modem at the slightest rush (elohel live trading).
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Old 12-05-2009, 04:32 AM   #48
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
OK. Let's start with the One. I'm staring at 1428 teams since 1994 that were either favoured or a dog by 2.5 points or less (i.e. one of: +2.5, +2, +1.5, +1, Pick, -1, -1.5, -2 or -2.5). Thirty of them ended up winning the game by exactly one point, or 2.1%. What do you think that number should be?

Wanna respond one by one or should I keep going?
this makes me want to gouge my eyes out
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Old 12-05-2009, 06:28 AM   #49
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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this makes me want to gouge my eyes out
I like how he thinks that is an argument in defense whereas I feel like he's just clowned himself for loltardedness.
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Old 12-05-2009, 02:10 PM   #50
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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this makes me want to gouge my eyes out
Do you disagree or are you confused? I'm confused. If you disagree, why?
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