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Old 12-03-2009, 08:22 PM   #1
ImStillBen
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Teaser bettors: DAL +5

only slightly worse than NYG +8. DAL +6 is the nuts.
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Old 12-03-2009, 08:36 PM   #2
kdog
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Hell, tease Dallas and...Tampa or something at 5Dimes and then go over to Bodog and get the Giants +9 with whatever.
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Old 12-03-2009, 08:55 PM   #3
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

NYG +9 is very strong.
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Old 12-04-2009, 03:25 AM   #4
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
Teaser bettors: DAL +5
Dall by 2: 2%
Dall by 1: 2%
NYG by 1: 2%
NYG by 2: 2%
NYG by 3: 8%
NYG by 4: 2%
NYG by 5: 2%

Total = 20%, without even taking into account the push on the +5. And I'm being pretty generous with the "NYG by x" estimates. High total only makes things worse. Awful bet IMO.
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Old 12-04-2009, 05:05 AM   #5
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

As usual, I could agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.
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Old 12-04-2009, 05:15 AM   #6
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Did you really just do that?
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Old 12-04-2009, 06:50 PM   #7
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

so what's the answer? tease Cowboys -1 or not?
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Old 12-04-2009, 06:56 PM   #8
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by GooGooDooDoo View Post
so what's the answer? tease Cowboys -1 or not?
I don't think he wants to show his work. Too embarrassing.
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Old 12-04-2009, 06:58 PM   #9
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
I don't think he wants to show his work. Too embarrassing.
Well the numbers you used to "disprove" him were not correct.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:11 PM   #10
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by ClayRaiken View Post
Well the numbers you used to "disprove" him were not correct.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx
How exactly am I supposed to use that tool to figure out how often a -2.5 fave loses by Three or Four or Five?

You don't like my numbers? Post your own. See if you can get the percentages to add up to 20.7%. Good luck.
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:13 PM   #11
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech View Post
How exactly am I supposed to use that tool to figure out how often a -2.5 fave loses by Three or Four or Five?

You don't like my numbers? Post your own. See if you can get the percentages to add up to 20.7%. Good luck.

How exactly? well you should type in 2.5 in the spread box.. and then look at the respective push probabilities for the numbers you ramdomly created %' for. That would be EXACTLY how I would go about that. Do you still want me to post the numbers champ?
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:14 PM   #12
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

oh and just eyeballing it.. i would guess about 23%.. hang in there bud
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:17 PM   #13
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

HPC is pretty bad for calculating teasers, but it says...

Dallas +5 ~ -270
giants +8.5 ~-315

which to me translates to ~ -235 and -270.

So yea, I guess I would like to see Ben's #s and methodology...
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:24 PM   #14
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by ClayRaiken View Post
How exactly? well you should type in 2.5 in the spread box.. and then look at the respective push probabilities for the numbers you ramdomly created %' for. That would be EXACTLY how I would go about that. Do you still want me to post the numbers champ?
This is ****ing horrible. DUCY? Hint: put in a -7 road fave, scroll, and compare the push % for "home by 7" here to the push percentage for "home by 7" it uses for a -7 home fave.
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:29 PM   #15
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by ClayRaiken View Post
Do you still want me to post the numbers champ?
Yup. Would love it.
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:33 PM   #16
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

That link reminds me of the blackjack BS cards casinos give to their players to "help" them with their strategies.
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:35 PM   #17
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

ClayRaiken gonna get owned in this thread...
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:37 PM   #18
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

boys boys boys, can we just have one fight at a time on this thread? i'm looking forward to the epic pc/ben showdown
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:39 PM   #19
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Your push percentages on 1, 2 and 4 are laughable. If you'd like to get one of your friends that bets on sports to post a prop on MB, we can gamble.

In any case the market has come down on DAL so it's no longer worth playing at +5. +6 is not terrible but I don't see that available any more.

Obviously the point of the exercise is that teaser "protection" which has become so popular is exploitable.
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:43 PM   #20
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
Obviously the point of the exercise is that teaser "protection" which has become so popular is exploitable.
agreed..

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
Your push percentages on 1, 2 and 4 are laughable. If you'd like to get one of your friends that bets on sports to post a prop on MB, we can gamble.
So do you care to share what you think the numbers are?
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:50 PM   #21
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Also I would like to see a "meet me at matchbook" followed by this in XBets...

Will The New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys game be decided by 1, 2, or 4 points?

Yes +700 $100,000
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:50 PM   #22
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
Your push percentages on 1, 2 and 4 are laughable.
OK. Let's start with the One. I'm staring at 1428 teams since 1994 that were either favoured or a dog by 2.5 points or less (i.e. one of: +2.5, +2, +1.5, +1, Pick, -1, -1.5, -2 or -2.5). Thirty of them ended up winning the game by exactly one point, or 2.1%. What do you think that number should be?

Wanna respond one by one or should I keep going?
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Old 12-04-2009, 07:54 PM   #23
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

I have this game wound up in a Corbinesque reverse Morrison -2.5 twist, and if it ends in a tie, I lose about 75% of my bankroll. Please tell me that you both agree that this is very very unlikely.
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Old 12-04-2009, 08:19 PM   #24
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImStillBen View Post
If you'd like to get one of your friends that bets on sports to post a prop on MB, we can gamble.
No thanks. I already got suckered into that once before and you never showed up.
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Old 12-04-2009, 08:39 PM   #25
ImStillBen
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Re: Teaser bettors: DAL +5

Based on the market when I posted:

DAL 9+ 0.277602524
DAL 8 0.01306895
DAL 7 0.047769265
DAL 6 0.031545741
DAL 5 0.01306895
DAL 4 0.034700315
DAL 3 0.097341145
DAL 2 0.021631365
DAL 1 0.020730059
DAL 0 0.000901307
NYG 1 0.023433979
NYG 2 0.018026138
NYG 3 0.081117621
NYG 4 0.0261379
NYG 5 0.018026138
NYG 6+ 0.274898603

DAL +5 -257.2131148
NYG +8 -260.2272727

Turns out 2% isn't too bad for 1 & 2. I guess you are a genius!

I think it's funny that your friends try to stifle teaser discussion as though anyone pays attention to your dead forum and then you come here trying to teach a huge mass of people. I guess your friends are thankful you're so bad at this.
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