Quote:
Originally Posted by atrainpsu
Because the value in teasers comes from picking up the 22%+ from the extra 6 pts, not because the team wins ATS 52%+ of the time.
Take a side that picks up 22% in a teaser and you can make money on them regardless of how often they win ATS.
Wow, it's as if the ATS result has no bearing on the distribution of the result!
The BE leg winrate of a 3 T +180 is roughly 71% (70.95%)
If the subset is 53% and we gain 22%* we get 75%
If the subset is now 50% and we gain 22%* we get 72%
Do you realize the EV difference between the two examples!
Now run the same example using your numbers vs a 2 T at -110 (BE 72.37%)
I won't even include distribution factors around the true line plus the huge reduction in variance if you don't hedge or use the play as part of an expanded portfolio of plays.
Not sure why its so hard to believe that Wong teasers will win less going forward in certain spots than they have in the past.
You can't look at a teaser blindly, you have to look at the gain OVER the WA line.
Here is a post from 4 years ago where I explain this very principle to King Yao.
http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/fo...cgi/read/25734
D.
*your number!