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Teaser bettors: DAL +5

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12-08-2009 , 10:59 PM

#76

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Ah. Now you're a statistical model expert. Good to know. How would you be able to discern this, since you'd fail a Stats 101 exam?

Quote

12-08-2009 , 11:39 PM

#77

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Anyone with common sense can discern it. I've only mentioned out how about a thousand times already.

How's about an opinion on the NYG by 5 > DAL by 5 thing?

Last edited by PerpetualCzech; 12-08-2009 at 11:51 PM. Reason: ETA

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12-08-2009 , 11:51 PM

#78

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

Anyone with common sense can discern it. I've only mentioned out how about a thousand times already.

Ah. You're relying on "common sense". gud one

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12-09-2009 , 12:23 AM

#79

Rustjive

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 1,311

Without knowing whether or not what you've pointed out happens with +1/-1 and +5/-5, PC, I will say that this type of 'reverse' action happens in large markets in other sports.

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12-09-2009 , 12:37 AM

#80

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rustjive

Without knowing whether or not what you've pointed out happens with +1/-1 and +5/-5, PC, I will say that this type of 'reverse' action happens in large markets in other sports.

Don't follow. You're saying there are situations where a dog winning by x > fave winning by x? I guess I could see it happening in weird situations, like maybe an NHL coach who likes to pull his goalie a lot more than the opposing coach. There's nothing like that going on in this game though.

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12-09-2009 , 12:43 AM

#81

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

CMON MAN

HOME SPLITS = AWAY SPLITS

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12-09-2009 , 12:47 AM

#82

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

You made 1/2/4 exactly equal, and rounded off every number like we're in bizzaro whole number world, and you have the gall to mock someone else's calcs?

As mentioned before these were only approximations. I totally agree that any serious model that comes out with figures exactly the same for two different numbers would indicate sloppiness on the part of its methodology.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImStillBen

DAL 8 0.01306895
DAL 5 0.01306895

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImStillBen

NYG 2 0.018026138
NYG 5 0.018026138

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12-09-2009 , 12:58 AM

#83

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

CMON MAN

HOME SPLITS = AWAY SPLITS

Yeah. There are plenty of reasons for believing a Home Team has a greater propensity to win the game by exactly 5 points than the Away Team. I don't want to say them though because that's too much information for a public forum.

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12-09-2009 , 01:00 AM

#84

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

And posting a strategy that produces 57% winners isn't.

BIMO

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12-09-2009 , 01:07 AM

#85

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

Anyone with common sense can discern it. I've only mentioned out how about a thousand times already.

How's about an opinion on the NYG by 5 > DAL by 5 thing?

think harder

there is a reason for this

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12-09-2009 , 01:19 AM

#86

B00T

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 5,246

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

If only there was a pay forum where serious posters would share such information universally across the board.

I keed, I keed.

I can't even get straight non-conflicting information regarding team totals.

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12-09-2009 , 02:48 AM

#87

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by B00T

I can't even get straight non-conflicting information regarding team totals.

are people disagreeing with my total information as well?

at least the 2 I posted shipped

Quote

12-09-2009 , 03:06 AM

#88

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

are people disagreeing with my total information as well?

at least the 2 I posted shipped

A big LOL @ the idea of posting Team Totals instead of just whacking them down to the proper price. I like my friends, but not enough to give them free money.

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12-09-2009 , 03:11 AM

#89

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

A big LOL @ the idea of posting Team Totals instead of just whacking them down to the proper price. I like my friends, but not enough to give them free money.

I guess you fail at life as much as you fail at statistics

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12-09-2009 , 04:03 AM

#90

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Another tipped hand. It still makes me as giddy today as ever. I'm such a degen.

At some point you guys are going to have to acknowledge the experience factor here.

Quote

12-09-2009 , 08:01 AM

#91

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

Another tipped hand. It still makes me as giddy today as ever. I'm such a degen.

At some point you guys are going to have to acknowledge the experience factor here.

Doesn't mean ****. I rape pwned Post Oak recently who has been an advantage gambler longer than I've been alive. He didn't know what he was talking about.

I personally find this argument quite funny, since it involves statistical analysis which you admittedly suck ballsack at, yet you have some proprietary knowledge that is too good for a public forum. Yet it has to be as good as giving away 57% picks (Instead of whacking them down to the proper price).

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12-09-2009 , 10:51 AM

#92

GooGooDooDoo

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 101

My final thought on this thread --- teasers are for suckers!!! How much did the OP lose on this one?zsz

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12-09-2009 , 12:14 PM

#93

B00T

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 5,246

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

A big LOL @ the idea of posting Team Totals instead of just whacking them down to the proper price. I like my friends, but not enough to give them free money.

You have no fkn idea what you are talking about.

Quote

12-09-2009 , 12:15 PM

#94

trixtrix

adept

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 863

LOL @ post croak being an ap, when did this happen?

Quote

12-09-2009 , 01:16 PM

#95

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by trixtrix

LOL @ post croak being an ap, when did this happen?

Meh. If you card count and only wong in at +5 TCs, you're an advantage player even if an idiot. Same thing applies here. Its incredibly easy to win money betting sports to anyone who cares enough to bother to invest 10m of their life. Not to mention being an advantage player is the 70s was as simple as carrying 2 backpacks, each full of money to different sportsbooks and betting -2.5 on one side and +4.5 on the other.

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12-09-2009 , 04:39 PM

#96

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

want a cookie?

try to come up with a list of possible outcomes (the final score for both teams) with a median outcome of Dal -2.5 and the Total slightly above 45...
as you know, this isn't basketball with near continuous distributions
the scoring in various chunks that don't relate too well with each other accounts for the -1/+1 stuff in the various push charts

my advice: get better at the maths

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12-09-2009 , 04:59 PM

#97

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

in case you still need help
the Giants -1 was 3 to 4 points off of the median spread
the Cowboys -1 was 1 to 2 points off of the median spread

Guess which one is more likely to happen?

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12-09-2009 , 07:11 PM

#98

GooGooDooDoo

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 101

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

my advice: get better at the maths

for a guy that thinks the game ending on 3 is only 9% ... you sure have a lot of balls to talk **** in this thread.

Quote

12-09-2009 , 07:16 PM

#99

Rustjive

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 1,311

Quote:

Originally Posted by GooGooDooDoo

My final thought on this thread --- teasers are for suckers!!! How much did the OP lose on this one?zsz

Dude.

Shut up. You don't know what you're talking about at all.

Quote

12-09-2009 , 08:15 PM

#100

GooGooDooDoo

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 101

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rustjive

Dude.

Shut up. You don't know what you're talking about at all.

Any one who thinks that the game should end with a 3 point differential 9% of the time, please raise your hand.

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