Teaser bettors: DAL +5 - Page 2 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Yeah, I never showed up in the 12 hours overnight between his offer and Garnett's injury news. What a p ssy I am to not impossibly fund Matchbook in that time.

I know you're awful at math and betting sports but you can't actually be this stupid.

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12-04-2009 , 08:58 PM

#27

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImStillBen

Based on the market when I posted:

DAL 9+ 0.277602524
DAL 8 0.01306895
DAL 7 0.047769265
DAL 6 0.031545741
DAL 5 0.01306895
DAL 4 0.034700315
DAL 3 0.097341145
DAL 2 0.021631365
DAL 1 0.020730059
DAL 0 0.000901307
NYG 1 0.023433979
NYG 2 0.018026138
NYG 3 0.081117621
NYG 4 0.0261379
NYG 5 0.018026138
NYG 6+ 0.274898603

DAL +5 -257.2131148
NYG +8½ -260.2272727

So you've got a +2.5 dog that has a greater chance to win by One than the -2.5 fave does. How is that remotely possible. Methinks your little program may have a bit of a flaw it in somewhere.

Anyways, add up all your percentages and you still fail to reach the 20.7% you need for your +5 teaser so who knows why you were recommending it. Also, extra bonus tip for actually stepping up and showing your work: take a look at what happens to the value of the Three in the NFL as total gets higher.

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12-04-2009 , 09:09 PM

#28

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImStillBen

What a p ssy I am to not impossibly fund Matchbook in that time.

No, the p ssy part is talking like this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImStillBen

How much do you want?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImStillBen

How much will you match at -600?

without having any funds available to do so and (we both know, don't we?) no intention either.

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12-04-2009 , 09:25 PM

#29

ImStillBen

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,790

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

So you've got a +2.5 dog that has a greater chance to win by One than the -2.5 fave does. How is that remotely possible. Methinks your little program may have a bit of a flaw it in somewhere.

Perhaps it's one of those data-mined angles you're so fond of that lose money going forward. Keep us posted.

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

Anyways, add up all your percentages and you still fail to reach the 20.7% you need for your +5 teaser so who knows why you were recommending it. Also, extra bonus tip for actually stepping up and showing your work: take a look at what happens to the value of the Three in the NFL as total gets higher.

This may be foreign to you but laying -244 when the line should be -257 has positive expectation. /coach

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12-04-2009 , 09:27 PM

#30

Rustjive

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 1,311

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImStillBen

Perhaps it's one of those data-mined angles you're so fond of that lose money going forward. Keep us posted.

!!!!!!!!!!!!

validation, this is +EV for me

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12-04-2009 , 09:39 PM

#31

ImStillBen

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,790

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

without having any funds available to do so and (we both know, don't we?) no intention either.

I'm 90% confident I have more than your net worth in money offshore. I might maybe possibly could have transferred/deposited to MB at some point before the start of the playoffs. Clearly it is ridiculous for me to ask how much action we were talking about before going through the hassle and expense of moving money somewhere I have little use for. Aw but then it was all moot the next morning when your little secret broke and you were sad.

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12-04-2009 , 09:45 PM

#32

trixtrix

adept

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 863

sportsbetting: pc -115/ ben -115
mma: pc +240/ ben -300
chess: pc -400/ ben +300

betting window is open, players

*5$ max if you have 250+ posts on 2p2

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12-04-2009 , 09:52 PM

#33

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImStillBen

This may be foreign to you but laying -244 when the line should be -257 has positive expectation. /coach

LMAO how do you possibly get your +5 teaser picking up 22.0%.

I get it now. This is all one big level to see how long you can string me along to keep replying to your constant stream of Mickey Mouse analysis. Half of the day with a full NBA card. I guess you got me pretty good.

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12-04-2009 , 09:56 PM

#34

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Stats 101: PC +10000000

No side on ImBen.

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12-04-2009 , 10:00 PM

#35

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

Stats 101: PC +10000000

No side on ImBen.

No argument there. Now all you guys have to do is learn how to make a bet. "Rarely funded" at MB and no shame in admitting it. For the love of god.

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12-04-2009 , 10:08 PM

#36

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

lol

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12-04-2009 , 10:15 PM

#37

GooGooDooDoo

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 101

are we supposed to add these numbers?

DAL 2 0.021631365
DAL 1 0.020730059
DAL 0 0.000901307
NYG 1 0.023433979
NYG 2 0.018026138
NYG 3 0.081117621
NYG 4 0.0261379
NYG 5 0.018026138

I get 0.21

0.21 + 0.50 = 0.71. 0.71 equals -245 money line.

Are we supposed to add all of the value of the 5? or just half?

if just half, then

0.20 + 0.50 = 0.70. 0.70 equals -235 money line.

could be either way.

but, isn't it too close to call? Couldn't the true value be -255 or -230?

teasers suck.

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12-04-2009 , 10:22 PM

#38

calm

banned

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,087

What does that negative number after -1 mean on Pinny?

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12-04-2009 , 10:29 PM

#39

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Quote:

Originally Posted by GooGooDooDoo

Are we supposed to add all of the value of the 5? or just half?

The latter.

ETA: Actually, about 3/4s of it ...

Last edited by PerpetualCzech; 12-04-2009 at 10:33 PM. Reason: ETA

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12-04-2009 , 10:37 PM

#40

GooGooDooDoo

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 101

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

The latter.

ETA: Actually, about 3/4s of it ...

?????

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12-04-2009 , 11:08 PM

#41

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Quote:

Originally Posted by GooGooDooDoo

?????

It depends on the rules you have for your teaser. The more generous the rule for pushes, the more you should add. I guess it really only applies on 3 and 4 teamers where the push reduces the teaser by one leg.

Basically the reason is rooted in the fact you get approx. 3/4 of your potential payout back on a push, not half. Here is a good thread that may explain better than I can:

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/forum...AR_MSGDBTABLE=

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12-04-2009 , 11:13 PM

#42

GooGooDooDoo

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 101

I get any tie is a loser for any teaser. I need a new bookie.

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12-04-2009 , 11:18 PM

#43

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Quote:

Originally Posted by GooGooDooDoo

I get any tie is a loser for any teaser. I need a new bookie.

Then in your case you add 0% the value of the Five

Quote

12-04-2009 , 11:19 PM

#44

GooGooDooDoo

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 101

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

Then in your case you add 0% the value of the Five

#%*%&#@*%&@#(

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12-05-2009 , 02:28 AM

#45

ImStillBen

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,790

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

I'm thoroughly amused and not at all surprised you don't understand this.

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12-05-2009 , 02:35 AM

#46

ImStillBen

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,790

Quote:

Originally Posted by trixtrix

sportsbetting: pc -115/ ben -115

Quote:

Originally Posted by trixtrix

mma: pc +240/ ben -300

Quote:

Originally Posted by trixtrix

chess: pc -400/ ben +300

PC

These should all be closer to ±∞.

Quote

12-05-2009 , 03:05 AM

#47

ImStillBen

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,790

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

No argument there. Now all you guys have to do is learn how to make a bet. "Rarely funded" at MB and no shame in admitting it. For the love of god.

Oh MB, how I love thee, let me count the ways...

-Cloned Pinnacle lines available only on rock solid markets; empty screen on everything else.

-Post a legit offer and then babysit it your whole life until the market moves against you and some API bot picks it off within 1 femtosecond.

-Straights only.

-Software lags like a 2400 baud modem at the slightest rush (elohel live trading).

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12-05-2009 , 04:32 AM

#48

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

OK. Let's start with the One. I'm staring at 1428 teams since 1994 that were either favoured or a dog by 2.5 points or less (i.e. one of: +2.5, +2, +1.5, +1, Pick, -1, -1.5, -2 or -2.5). Thirty of them ended up winning the game by exactly one point, or 2.1%. What do you think that number should be?

Wanna respond one by one or should I keep going?

this makes me want to gouge my eyes out