only slightly worse than NYG +8½. DAL +6 is the nuts.

Hell, tease Dallas and...Tampa or something at 5Dimes and then go over to Bodog and get the Giants +9 with whatever.

NYG +9 is very strong.

Dall by 2: 2%
Dall by 1: 2%
NYG by 1: 2%
NYG by 2: 2%
NYG by 3: 8%
NYG by 4: 2%
NYG by 5: 2%

Total = 20%, without even taking into account the push on the +5. And I'm being pretty generous with the "NYG by x" estimates. High total only makes things worse. Awful bet IMO.

As usual, I could agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.

Did you really just do that?

so what's the answer? tease Cowboys -1 or not?

I don't think he wants to show his work. Too embarrassing.

Well the numbers you used to "disprove" him were not correct.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

How exactly am I supposed to use that tool to figure out how often a -2.5 fave loses by Three or Four or Five?

You don't like my numbers? Post your own. See if you can get the percentages to add up to 20.7%. Good luck.

How exactly? well you should type in 2.5 in the spread box.. and then look at the respective push probabilities for the numbers you ramdomly created %' for. That would be EXACTLY how I would go about that. Do you still want me to post the numbers champ?

oh and just eyeballing it.. i would guess about 23%.. hang in there bud

HPC is pretty bad for calculating teasers, but it says...

Dallas +5 ~ -270
giants +8.5 ~-315

which to me translates to ~ -235 and -270.

So yea, I guess I would like to see Ben's #s and methodology...

This is ****ing horrible. DUCY? Hint: put in a -7 road fave, scroll, and compare the push % for "home by 7" here to the push percentage for "home by 7" it uses for a -7 home fave.

Yup. Would love it.

That link reminds me of the blackjack BS cards casinos give to their players to "help" them with their strategies.

ClayRaiken gonna get owned in this thread...

boys boys boys, can we just have one fight at a time on this thread? i'm looking forward to the epic pc/ben showdown

Your push percentages on 1, 2 and 4 are laughable. If you'd like to get one of your friends that bets on sports to post a prop on MB, we can gamble.

In any case the market has come down on DAL so it's no longer worth playing at +5. +6 is not terrible but I don't see that available any more.

Obviously the point of the exercise is that teaser "protection" which has become so popular is exploitable.

agreed..

So do you care to share what you think the numbers are?

Also I would like to see a "meet me at matchbook" followed by this in XBets...

Will The New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys game be decided by 1, 2, or 4 points?

Yes +700 $100,000

OK. Let's start with the One. I'm staring at 1428 teams since 1994 that were either favoured or a dog by 2.5 points or less (i.e. one of: +2.5, +2, +1.5, +1, Pick, -1, -1.5, -2 or -2.5). Thirty of them ended up winning the game by exactly one point, or 2.1%. What do you think that number should be?

Wanna respond one by one or should I keep going?

I have this game wound up in a Corbinesque reverse Morrison -2.5 twist, and if it ends in a tie, I lose about 75% of my bankroll. Please tell me that you both agree that this is very very unlikely.

No thanks. I already got suckered into that once before and you never showed up.

Based on the market when I posted:

DAL 9+ 0.277602524
DAL 8 0.01306895
DAL 7 0.047769265
DAL 6 0.031545741
DAL 5 0.01306895
DAL 4 0.034700315
DAL 3 0.097341145
DAL 2 0.021631365
DAL 1 0.020730059
DAL 0 0.000901307
NYG 1 0.023433979
NYG 2 0.018026138
NYG 3 0.081117621
NYG 4 0.0261379
NYG 5 0.018026138
NYG 6+ 0.274898603

DAL +5 -257.2131148
NYG +8½ -260.2272727

Turns out 2% isn't too bad for 1 & 2. I guess you are a genius!

I think it's funny that your friends try to stifle teaser discussion as though anyone pays attention to your dead forum and then you come here trying to teach a huge mass of people. I guess your friends are thankful you're so bad at this.