What staking method would one use if they don't know their edge. Edge as in assigning a price to each of the opponents. I cant assign a price to each opponent because its basically impossible to get even close to being correct, so I cant use kelly for this reason. I'm just picking who I think will win and backing them if the price seems overs. So I'm just wondering what would be the next best staking method to use?

Stop throwing darts.Your question is horrendus buddy.If you don´t have a clue what your edge is and just bet on what you think or what you feel you should not bet.

The question might come across as horrendous to you but that's just because you don't have a understanding of what I am talking about. Why shouldn't I bet if I'am making a profit over a very large amount of bets. Besides kelly cant be used on what I bet on.

As much as you can get down?

Yes

You didnt spoke anything about profit in the OP.and its absurd when you say you can not get even close to beeing correct if you are making profits which i doubt

Just to explain why I or anyone IMO cant produce correct lines is that its nothing for the one you want to bet to open odds on and ease out to double or more its opening price, or even 4 or 5 times its opening price.

Its also nothing for something to be heavily backed throughout betting and then double its price or more 2 minutes before the start of the event, because of new info for the event or even no info but just players moving lines so easily.

These are just a couple of many many variables that make setting lines difficult.

There are many pros, and yes they really are pros I will give them that because they do make a profit overall, claiming to be able to produce correct prices but their only playing with themselves -- even though they truly believe they can for some crazy reason (ego), yet all these pros I know and I'm talking best in the business aren't even using 1-2 kelly but instead everyone of the them are using 1/4 kelly, which to me basically shows how much confidence they really have in their lines, but given how soft the markets are they can get away with it.

I'm betting 2% of my total bank per bet atm, but just wondered if there was maybe a better staking option to use hence the thread.

Jesus men go back to Reddit

Fire enough that they won't be able to fight back, but not so much that you ruin them.

Here's a shot of BetIslands, circa October 2013. As you can see, the enemy was defeated, but it was uninhabitable and we weren't able to withdraw our funds after the battle.

Since whatever i say is bs to you, simply point out what part of what said is bs, we can escrow $ to a reputable poster here, and settle it with a bet. For example its nothing to see daily multiple things open +200 get backed into -400 and drift back out to +250 and I'm talking about in the space of a few hours. So tell me what i said that is bs and how much you want to wager that it is.

If it's a soft market, then it's limits are ****e. If you're asking this, you don't have gnomes. Bet the max.

1. I get that it's pretty risk averse, and might show less confidence in one's lines then normal, but I don't think 1/4 Kelly is that ridiculous.

2. If lines are moving that wildly close to the event then I imagine limits are miniscule, so if you've been making a profit for a long amount of time I'd probably just max every bet you decide to make instead of coming up with any staking process.

3. What the hell market is this?

The limits are good because of min bet laws -- every online bookmaker about ~15 of them must bet you to win $2000 per single bet, while every racecourse bookmaker about ~15+ has to bet you to win $3000. So I cant max bet atm. The markets are horse racing.

I actually cant even use 1/4 kelly because to use kelly you need to assign a probability for each runner and this is out of the question with the amount of bets I make per day. I'm not coming up with picks using a model.

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Ty continue to use flat betting buddy whilst i expoentially outperform you.
Ganchrow advocates Kelly staking as every serious bettor

And he also says..

"Garbage in, garbage out," as they say. (In other words, if your forecasts are faulty you shouldn't be using Kelly.)

Kelly is obviously the way to go, but as stated many times in this thread, assigning a probability to so many races per day is out of the question - which means one can not use kelly.

I have never seen a winning system where you can't quantify your edge.

If you read more of Ganchrow's posts, he acknowledges these systems may exist, but doesn't utilize them himself. I think this came up in another thread where someone then quantified their win % and SD, so QED.

Agree with you re sports betting but I don't bet sports but horses instead, and its a totally different ball game a lot more room for margin of error. The betting line mistakes made by bookmakers and sports bettors is minuscule compared to horse racing, as i mentioned in the other thread a horse these days will open say decimal $3 get backed into $1.30 or $1.25 and go back out $3.50 etc in a space of a few hours. Its nothing to also see a horse open $9 and be backed into $2.50. taking into account opening odds put out by bookmakers for a race average 130. So when a error like this is made the market takes a massive shuffle.

These errors just don't happen in sports betting and why asked the original thread question in this forum as some of you guys seem to be pretty clever especially re wagering.

Is english a second language to you guys?

this will answer your question https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/6.../tilt-1691114/

What is your first language? Not trying to be a dick, Im genuinely curious.

nah that's fine your not being a dick asking just that i rather not mention which country, because in the horse racing circles (small world) it wouldn't take someone reading these posts much to connect who i am.

I used to do my own prices (which means giving each horse a probability of winning) but could only do so may races a day, which then kelly could be used, but now betting on a lot more races per day which means no hours to put into doing the prices for so many races. The latter is much more profitable then the first, so yeah I can understand me saying "I just bet without knowing the exact edge and show a profit" - yeah i can see how that would comes across as me talking bs.