Quote:
Originally Posted by Navrark
I don't know how, but early last year I came to the conclusion that the "Population Mean," for the One-Sided T-Test, is calculated as follows:
100 / Your Average Odds
100 divided by Your Average Odds
Is this correct?
So if my average odds are: 2.16, my Population Mean is 46.296..., correct?
The population mean is an input. It's not calculated at all. It is the threshold you are testing against. It's a decent way to judge a handicapper's picks or your own record to see if it's statistically likely you are winning long term or if it's all just noise so far. If you're always betting -110 I'd use 52.38% which is the default input. If you play around with it you'll see that the larger the sample size, the smaller the winrate you need to show statistical likelihood of being a winner long term.
Edit: Using average odds is one way to go, just realize that your results can be wildly skewed if you happened to lose some huge favorite or win some huge underdog. If you're always betting around the same average odds, then yes I think your method would work fine.