What's the simplest angle that was +EV in the past thirty years or so? I assume all such leaks have been plugged by now with the amount of data that current books use, but I'm interested in plays that were surprisingly simple and that were +EV for a surprisingly long time. Wong teasers are about the simplest thing I can think of, but presumably there was something simpler that the books missed for a long time. For example: Taking the home team in CFB when a team travels three time zones west and kick-off is after 7:00 at night. Taking the over in MLB when the temperature and humidity are above a certain amount. Fading any NFL team that starts 4–0 because they're probably overrated. Stuff like that.
Anyone have any recollections of winning long term with these kinds of modeling-free bets?
Was there actually anything to the Texas Rangers 2.5 system? What was the thesis there, anyway, and why did it stop being profitable? Since you could write out 10,000 conceivable systems like this, there will of course be a few that are statistically significant winners even though they are complete BS luck.
When I was in high school and college (mid 80's through early 90's) betting the NFL was stupid easy. Could blindly take home dogs and profit. Playing surface was huge as the fields were widely inconsistent. Teams with natural grass home fields hosting teams with artificial turf home fields were huge winners. The reverse was also profitable just not as much.
Data was not overly accessible back then and if you had it the NFL was a cash machine. Kept me in some good spending money through school.