Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-07-2017, 07:19 PM   #26
flopturntree
adept
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: ur girls crib
Posts: 764
Re: Right or wrong play

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
Situations like this I always try to find a +EV wager on the other side. Anytime you make a -EV wager, youre costing yourself money. That doesn't mean you should never hedge, obviously, but just realize that by doing so you are giving up money. But what you give up in -EV you hopefully make up for in EG (expected growth). It can make sense to buy back positions at slightly -EV numbers.

Something that I like to do or at least used to do sort of often is pre plan what I call "half scalps." Say you want to bet 2% of your roll on something that you know is a great bet; either an off market rouge line or chasing steam at a slow book or whatever. Say your 2% bet is 300 dollars but the max bet is 1k. Sure, you could just bet your 300 dollars and lock in a +EV wager. Youd have done fine. But you can do better. It takes a little bit of nerve, especially when youre starting out, but the better move is to bet the max on the good number and buy back the difference on the other side. For example:

The pats are playing the jets. The pats are -6.5 favorites. Your boston area local always juices up the local team and has the pats at -7.5. His max bet is 1k and you want 2% of your roll, or 300 dollars on jets +7.5. Bet 1000 on jets +7.5 instead of 300. Then bet to win 700 on pats -6.5 (or pats money line, or tease the pats, etc. Whichever is the best bet.) So you have 1870 "at risk" (assuming everything is -110) but really only are risking 300 bucks. Bonus points if you find a +EV wager on the pats and extra bonus points if you hit the middle.

So you see, the most +EV thing you could have done is bet the max on jets +7.5 and leave it alone. And after a while thats what you will be doing. But EV isn't everything. You have to consider EG. So you think to yourself ok Ill just bet 300 on the jets. Like I said earlier, that would be fine but it isnt optimal. If the line you like really is that far off, you want to ****ing HAMMER it. Don't worry about the buy back. Plenty of places out there will be happy to take your pats -6.5 bet.

You can now see the importance of having multiple books and being able to bet on credit. This is where the people skill side of all this comes into play. Hustle for new accounts all the time and take advantage of losing weeks. Whenever you have a big losing week and pay up no problem, the agent or the bookie is going to be surprised and happy. So many people out there bet what they can't pay and either stiff and disapear or, more likely, work out some god awful payment plan where they pay the guy 100 bucks a week for like a year straight. By paying right up no problem, he might think youre a whale. That is when you hit him up for a credit increase or a max bet increase or even, if hes real stupid, a percentage back on your losing weeks. I once got a guy to give me 20% back on my losses every week after a 3 week losing stretch. (I eventually beat him so bad and buried him in so much make up that he quit being an agent altogether.)

Locals are RETARDED. Like even moreso than youd think. If youre at all comfortable with meeting shady guys in bars and parking lots and exchanging large amounts of cash, you should have as many of these guys as possible in rotation. Then when the agents see you win you turn them dirty and have them start working for you. But this is all another subject.
Wow
flopturntree is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2017, 11:39 PM   #27
GameBred
newbie
 
GameBred's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 23
Re: Right or wrong play

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77 View Post
The point here is to recognize that at some point of increasing win probability (and fixed odds) it becomes advantageous to increase stake in a position. I noted to you, in terms of expected growth, when that point is reached. You may have a different view on utility and prefer even higher win probability before adding to the position.
Under these circumstances, I wouldn’t add to the position at all. The odds movement suggests that the event is more likely to happen than the original odds I bet them at, which is a good thing.

I am not betting at 8 when I have already placed an appropriate bet (Perceived Edge/Odds) @ 17. The fact that the odds have come in wouldn’t change my Fair Price (win probability) on the event unless the odds movement (~7% Win Probability Added) was due to a substantial injury, major lineup shakeup, etc.

Also, leveling up on the play could very well put him in an authorized position due to exceeding risk protocols. For example, he may not want to exceed 1% of his roll being bet on any 1 event.

The SP was 8, which means that the event probably had ~13% chance of occurring, on average. Why is he re-betting around this Fair Price orbit? Because he thinks the odds of the event occurring are > 16%? OK, he has that opinion more than covered w/ his 17 bet.
GameBred is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2017, 02:11 AM   #28
GameBred
newbie
 
GameBred's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 23
Re: Right or wrong play

Quote:
Originally Posted by GameBred View Post
Under these circumstances, I wouldn’t add to the position at all. The odds movement suggests that the event is more likely to happen than the original odds I bet them at, which is a good thing.

I am not betting at 8 when I have already placed an appropriate bet (Perceived Edge/Odds) @ 17. The fact that the odds have come in wouldn’t change my Fair Price (win probability) on the event unless the odds movement (~7% Win Probability Added) was due to a substantial injury, major lineup shakeup, etc.

Also, leveling up on the play could very well put him in an authorized position due to exceeding risk protocols. For example, he may not want to exceed 1% of his roll being bet on any 1 event.

The SP was 8, which means that the event probably had ~13% chance of occurring, on average. Why is he re-betting around this Fair Price orbit? Because he thinks the odds of the event occurring are > 16%? OK, he has that opinion more than covered w/ his 17 bet.
Unauthorized.
GameBred is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2017, 10:59 AM   #29
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,302
Re: Right or wrong play

Quote:
Originally Posted by GameBred View Post

The SP was 8, which means that the event probably had ~13% chance of occurring, on average. Why is he re-betting around this Fair Price orbit? Because he thinks the odds of the event occurring are > 16%? OK, he has that opinion more than covered w/ his 17 bet.
We don't know what he thinks fair price is, and we don't know his risk preferences. Those two things determine the correct course of action. Poker Hero is right, and you are wrong.
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2017, 01:12 PM   #30
Thebookiesmate
stranger
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 8
Re: Right or wrong play

Have enjoyed reading the little debate going on, I think if I was in the same situation again I would let it run
Thebookiesmate is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2017, 03:50 PM   #31
GameBred
newbie
 
GameBred's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 23
Re: Right or wrong play

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
We don't know what he thinks fair price is, and we don't know his risk preferences. Those two things determine the correct course of action. Poker Hero is right, and you are wrong.
First off, if you don't know these things and they determine the correct course of action then how do you know who is right?

You're funny and you can say whatever you want but you can't prosecute that case.

Secondly, as I am sure you are aware, SP stands for ”Starting Price” and is the same thing as the Closing Price. The market is stating that the Fair Price is ~ 8; Not BookieMate. I questioned the sagacity of re-betting around the FP when BM has ALREADY procured a price way above the odds.

Thirdly, I don’t need to know BM’s projected FP as I can use inferential reasoning and state that he believed the FP was below 17, or else he wouldn’t have made the original wager. I can further state that if he believed the FP was below 8, then his original bet @ 17 would reflect that edge. There is no need to re-bet this @ 8.

The moment he made that 17 bet, he was done. He did his job by procuring a price way above the odds. The only thing he has to do after that is nothing at all. If he wants to do something, he can work a hedge by balancing or biasing the reward. The "something" that he shouldn't do is add to the position. For what? He is already on @ 17.

Fourthly, I don’t need to know his risk preferences. Whatever your risk preference, you’re not re-betting this @ 8. There is absolutely no need. Your FP on this event hasn’t changed and you’re appropriately covered @ 17.

Please point out the flaw in this logic. Don't tell me I'm wrong, show me.

Thank you.
GameBred is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2017, 07:17 PM   #32
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,302
Re: Right or wrong play

Quote:
Originally Posted by GameBred View Post
LOTS of very big words
What you're advocating is settling for less instead of earning the max, which we can agree to disagree on. Bottom line is that in most situations (unless you are very poor or trading very liquid markets) you aren't getting full at the best odds available and should add appropriately at worse prices.
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2017, 09:41 PM   #33
Mihkel05
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 4,036
Re: Right or wrong play

GB,

Demanding people show you why you're wrong instead of just taking the time out to even bother to point out that you are wrong is weirdly entitled.

I read this before and didn't even feel like typing out a message to let you know that is all nonsense.
Mihkel05 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2017, 09:48 PM   #34
GameBred
newbie
 
GameBred's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 23
Re: Right or wrong play

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
What you're advocating is settling for less instead of earning the max, which we can agree to disagree on. Bottom line is that in most situations (unless you are very poor or trading very liquid markets) you aren't getting full at the best odds available and should add appropriately at worse prices.
You’re moving the goal posts. Now it’s about not getting full? Ok, that is a different conversation.

What I said is if one gets on the appropriate amount @ 17, they should not re-bet @ 8. Their done, there is nothing else to do but sing, “The Hills are alive w/ the sound of music,” when it goes off @ 8. With respect, you’re not addressing what I said.
GameBred is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2017, 09:55 PM   #35
GameBred
newbie
 
GameBred's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 23
Re: Right or wrong play

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
GB,

Demanding people show you why you're wrong instead of just taking the time out to even bother to point out that you are wrong is weirdly entitled.

I read this before and didn't even feel like typing out a message to let you know that is all nonsense.
If I bet to my edge @ 17 why I would re-bet it at 8? MY FP hasn't changed because the odds moved, they tend to do that during price discovery.

What is so hard about debunking that?

No one feels entitled, we are all here to learn, myself included. Educate me and I will thank you.
GameBred is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2017, 12:06 AM   #36
n00b590
adept
 
n00b590's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: de ilusion tambien se vive
Posts: 721
Re: Right or wrong play

Quote:
Originally Posted by GameBred View Post
we are all here to learn
Wrong again. I'm just here to lol @ poogs.
n00b590 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2017, 12:26 AM   #37
GameBred
newbie
 
GameBred's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 23
Re: Right or wrong play

Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590 View Post
Wrong again. I'm just here to lol @ poogs.
LOL. I can't catch a break, you guys are too sharp around here for me

What was I thinking???
GameBred is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2017, 06:38 PM   #38
Like
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 248
Re: Right or wrong play

Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590 View Post
Wrong again. I'm just here to lol @ poogs.
your obsession with me is scary and concerning
Like is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:38 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online