Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa!
We don't know what he thinks fair price is, and we don't know his risk preferences. Those two things determine the correct course of action. Poker Hero is right, and you are wrong.
First off, if you don't know these things and they determine the correct course of action then how do you know who is right?
You're funny and you can say whatever you want but you can't prosecute that case.
Secondly, as I am sure you are aware, SP stands for ”Starting Price” and is the same thing as the Closing Price. The market is stating that the Fair Price is ~ 8; Not BookieMate. I questioned the sagacity of re-betting around the FP when BM has ALREADY procured a price way above the odds.
Thirdly, I don’t need to know BM’s projected FP as I can use inferential reasoning and state that he believed the FP was below 17, or else he wouldn’t have made the original wager. I can further state that if he believed the FP was below 8, then his original bet @ 17 would reflect that edge. There is no need to re-bet this @ 8.
The moment he made that 17 bet, he was done. He did his job by procuring a price way above the odds. The only thing he has to do after that is nothing at all. If he wants to do something, he can work a hedge by balancing or biasing the reward. The "something" that he shouldn't do is add to the position. For what? He is already on @ 17.
Fourthly, I don’t need to know his risk preferences. Whatever your risk preference, you’re not re-betting this @ 8. There is absolutely no need. Your FP on this event hasn’t changed and you’re appropriately covered @ 17.
Please point out the flaw in this logic. Don't tell me I'm wrong, show me.
Thank you.