Wow

Under these circumstances, I wouldn’t add to the position at all. The odds movement suggests that the event is more likely to happen than the original odds I bet them at, which is a good thing.

I am not betting at 8 when I have already placed an appropriate bet (Perceived Edge/Odds) @ 17. The fact that the odds have come in wouldn’t change my Fair Price (win probability) on the event unless the odds movement (~7% Win Probability Added) was due to a substantial injury, major lineup shakeup, etc.

Also, leveling up on the play could very well put him in an authorized position due to exceeding risk protocols. For example, he may not want to exceed 1% of his roll being bet on any 1 event.

The SP was 8, which means that the event probably had ~13% chance of occurring, on average. Why is he re-betting around this Fair Price orbit? Because he thinks the odds of the event occurring are > 16%? OK, he has that opinion more than covered w/ his 17 bet.

Unauthorized.

We don't know what he thinks fair price is, and we don't know his risk preferences. Those two things determine the correct course of action. Poker Hero is right, and you are wrong.

Have enjoyed reading the little debate going on, I think if I was in the same situation again I would let it run

First off, if you don't know these things and they determine the correct course of action then how do you know who is right?

You're funny and you can say whatever you want but you can't prosecute that case.

Secondly, as I am sure you are aware, SP stands for ”Starting Price” and is the same thing as the Closing Price. The market is stating that the Fair Price is ~ 8; Not BookieMate. I questioned the sagacity of re-betting around the FP when BM has ALREADY procured a price way above the odds.

Thirdly, I don’t need to know BM’s projected FP as I can use inferential reasoning and state that he believed the FP was below 17, or else he wouldn’t have made the original wager. I can further state that if he believed the FP was below 8, then his original bet @ 17 would reflect that edge. There is no need to re-bet this @ 8.

The moment he made that 17 bet, he was done. He did his job by procuring a price way above the odds. The only thing he has to do after that is nothing at all. If he wants to do something, he can work a hedge by balancing or biasing the reward. The "something" that he shouldn't do is add to the position. For what? He is already on @ 17.

Fourthly, I don’t need to know his risk preferences. Whatever your risk preference, you’re not re-betting this @ 8. There is absolutely no need. Your FP on this event hasn’t changed and you’re appropriately covered @ 17.

Please point out the flaw in this logic. Don't tell me I'm wrong, show me.

Thank you.

What you're advocating is settling for less instead of earning the max, which we can agree to disagree on. Bottom line is that in most situations (unless you are very poor or trading very liquid markets) you aren't getting full at the best odds available and should add appropriately at worse prices.

GB,

Demanding people show you why you're wrong instead of just taking the time out to even bother to point out that you are wrong is weirdly entitled.

I read this before and didn't even feel like typing out a message to let you know that is all nonsense.

You’re moving the goal posts. Now it’s about not getting full? Ok, that is a different conversation.

What I said is if one gets on the appropriate amount @ 17, they should not re-bet @ 8. Their done, there is nothing else to do but sing, “The Hills are alive w/ the sound of music,” when it goes off @ 8. With respect, you’re not addressing what I said.

If I bet to my edge @ 17 why I would re-bet it at 8? MY FP hasn't changed because the odds moved, they tend to do that during price discovery.

What is so hard about debunking that?

No one feels entitled, we are all here to learn, myself included. Educate me and I will thank you.

Wrong again. I'm just here to lol @ poogs.

LOL. I can't catch a break, you guys are too sharp around here for me

What was I thinking???

your obsession with me is scary and concerning