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Old 01-20-2020, 09:36 AM   #1
nofunnybzns1
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Question from a novice

Disclamer- I know very little about sports betting.

I live in a state where sports betting is newly legal. One of the books seems to be very slow at moving their lines with the national average. Everyday I scour all the lines looking for anything that seems off from the national average (I usually use Pinnacle as my baseline). If it is far enough off, I fire a unit. If it is extremely off, I fire 2 units. I also look for middle opportunities with other books (usually I would bet 5 units on each side). For a -110 bet, I have been pulling the trigger if Pinnacle has it at -128 or higher. Usually -140 or higher is my baseline for a double unit.

My question is, how much of an advantage am I at? Do you think -128/-110 is a reasonable cutoff spread to fire a bet? My unit is $55 and my bankroll is up to $6,700 from $3,000.

Thanks for you advice!
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Old 01-20-2020, 11:41 AM   #2
daringly
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Re: Question from a novice

If you are betting US sports, I would use Betcris/Bookmaker as your guideline. Pinnacle is best for tennis and soccer.
If you see -110, and the market is -125/+105, the -110 is probably good.
At -120/100 vs -110 at your book, I'd pass.
If you get -110, and you see -130/+110, I'd put 2 units locally at -110 (unit = 1% of your bankroll).

In that last example, your theoretical edge is about 4%. Do this 1000 times, you'll probably hold a little less -- maybe 3% if you are betting into liquid markets. But you'll get kicked out long before that.
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Old 01-20-2020, 11:40 PM   #3
nofunnybzns1
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Re: Question from a novice

Quote:
Originally Posted by daringly View Post
If you are betting US sports, I would use Betcris/Bookmaker as your guideline. Pinnacle is best for tennis and soccer.
If you see -110, and the market is -125/+105, the -110 is probably good.
At -120/100 vs -110 at your book, I'd pass.
If you get -110, and you see -130/+110, I'd put 2 units locally at -110 (unit = 1% of your bankroll).

In that last example, your theoretical edge is about 4%. Do this 1000 times, you'll probably hold a little less -- maybe 3% if you are betting into liquid markets. But you'll get kicked out long before that.
Good stuff. Thanks.
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Old 01-24-2020, 04:01 AM   #4
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Re: Question from a novice

if you want the math you can use the vig free calc here: https://sportsbettingcalcs.com/betti...ree_calculator putting the sharp line then using the kelly calc (0,5 kelly at most) and putting the soft odds in with the implied probability from the vig free calc to generate "optimal" bet sizing assuming it actually closes at this price.
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Old 01-24-2020, 05:17 AM   #5
SwoopAE
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Re: Question from a novice

Quote:
Originally Posted by nofunnybzns1 View Post
Disclamer- I know very little about sports betting.

I live in a state where sports betting is newly legal. One of the books seems to be very slow at moving their lines with the national average. Everyday I scour all the lines looking for anything that seems off from the national average (I usually use Pinnacle as my baseline). If it is far enough off, I fire a unit. If it is extremely off, I fire 2 units. I also look for middle opportunities with other books (usually I would bet 5 units on each side). For a -110 bet, I have been pulling the trigger if Pinnacle has it at -128 or higher. Usually -140 or higher is my baseline for a double unit.

My question is, how much of an advantage am I at? Do you think -128/-110 is a reasonable cutoff spread to fire a bet? My unit is $55 and my bankroll is up to $6,700 from $3,000.

Thanks for you advice!
You're doing fine and with a 6.7k roll your unit is too small, you shouldn't have worse than 30u or so swings regularly with your edge and 50 units would be very very once in several years rare

Google half kelly with regards to kelly criterion for improvement with bankroll management (it's a rare thing to say but you're being too conservative with your bankroll)

gl

In general if you're getting arb price vs Pinny (eg -110 if the other side is +110 on Pinny and your side is about what you said) you'll win at 3-5% or so depending on the sport, assuming you're with the overall steam side

You're doing the right thing sizing up on larger edges and sticking with a single unit on smaller edges

Keep at it - if you're just taking good prices against the sharpest book/exchange on whatever sport it is you'll do well
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Old 10-17-2020, 05:29 PM   #6
nofunnybzns1
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Re: Question from a novice

Update-

After an incredible August and September, the profit total is up to $46,000 (have taken a small amount out so the current bankroll is right at $40,000). Have been backed off from all bonuses at one book and limited to 25% normal limits at another. Still have full limits at the best spot though.

I am still being rather conservative with bet sizing. My minimum bet is now $200 but I am not afraid to take a $1,500-$2,000 position on the better numbers.

Again, I'm not using any knowledge of the sports. I am purely taking advantage of bad numbers. It baffles me that this is still possible but here I am.

Hopefully this lasts through another basketball season. Although soccer has been pretty incredible this Summer. Football is okay but weekdays will be pretty slow going this Fall now that MLB and NBA are done.

Thanks for the tips!
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Old 10-18-2020, 09:26 PM   #7
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Re: Question from a novice

What you're doing is how most of us got our start in sports betting for profit, myself included

Best of luck
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Old 10-20-2020, 12:22 AM   #8
dollarbillstern
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Re: Question from a novice

Is this somethign where you only bet the moneyline? It'd be fairly easy to use the vig-adjusted win probability from the sharp book and calculate your edge against the soft book if so. How hard is it to do with bets that include a spread or total? At that point I'd think you'd need domain knowledge and a model?

Sounds like an interesting project. I'm curious how this works operationally? Do you sit in the casino with your phone and manually compare the sharp books line to the casino's?
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Old 10-20-2020, 05:36 AM   #9
SwoopAE
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Re: Question from a novice

Why would it only include moneylines

If the number on -3.5 is -130/+110 and you're getting -110 on the -130 side on your local on the same number obviously that is just as profitable as getting -110 on the ML on a -130 ML at a sharper book/exchange

It's quite easy to price up altlines (or if you don't know how just use a sharp book/exchange's prices) and if you're beating the sharp books no vig line by a few percent, especially if it's a steaming market on the sharp book, you're going to do pretty well
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Old 10-20-2020, 10:06 AM   #10
dollarbillstern
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Re: Question from a novice

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Why would it only include moneylines

If the number on -3.5 is -130/+110 and you're getting -110 on the -130 side on your local on the same number obviously that is just as profitable as getting -110 on the ML on a -130 ML at a sharper book/exchange

It's quite easy to price up altlines (or if you don't know how just use a sharp book/exchange's prices) and if you're beating the sharp books no vig line by a few percent, especially if it's a steaming market on the sharp book, you're going to do pretty well
Yeah, when the spread is the same across both books, that makes perfect sense. But what would you do if the spreads are different AND the price is different? For example, one book has -3.5 -110 and the other deals -3 -115? I'd think at that point you'd need to know what a half point is worth (where the domain knowledge comes in)? FWIW, I'm even more of a novice than OP lol
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Old 10-20-2020, 11:45 AM   #11
parttimepro
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Re: Question from a novice

Yeah, there are lookup tables for that kind of thing. Iirc -3.5 to -3 is like -110 to -125.
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Old 10-20-2020, 12:21 PM   #12
dollarbillstern
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Re: Question from a novice

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Yeah, there are lookup tables for that kind of thing. Iirc -3.5 to -3 is like -110 to -125.
Interesting. Any good material on how these tables are generated? Do they just look at a ton of past games and see the distribution of the point differentials?

Just quickly looking at the web requests for some of the big market maker books like betcris and pinnacle, it seems like the level of effort to scrape them continuously isn't too high. From that point, if you're just putting the info somewhere along with a calculator for bet sizing, it seems like a neat way to beat local casinos. I'd imagine a lot of people do this? Is this essentially what Spanky does, just on a much larger scale?
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Old 10-20-2020, 01:07 PM   #13
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Re: Question from a novice

I don't know who Spanky is.

Web scraping etc is a lot of effort to reinvent the wheel here. Most of the time Pinnacle will do the work for you and has a drop down menu with alternative lines for the games.
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