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Old 03-07-2012, 03:16 PM   #176
Sharkzilla1
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

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Originally Posted by LukeTheSharp View Post
He's back and not panicking. Still up a nice amount and is ready to ride the top teams on the ML all the way to the Final Four.

He's likely staying away from the NBA for now. He thinks last nights games were clearly rigged. Since he murderers the house in college basketball it's time to get back to what he does best.

risking 7.35 units to win 3, Georgetown -245
Awesome.
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Old 03-07-2012, 03:55 PM   #177
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

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He thinks last nights games were clearly rigged.
This is the most likely explanation. But what if NCAA games start getting rigged as well? Georgetown is already in the tournament, seems pretty likely that the Big East would prefer Pitt to win so they can get an extra bid if the Panthers go all the way.

I guess the odds of it being rigged are only ~ 10% which means that EV should be ~ -900 so the bet is still obviously great. I'd just be a little bit worried, I suppose.
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Old 03-07-2012, 04:24 PM   #178
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

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Originally Posted by LukeTheSharp View Post
He's back and not panicking. Still up a nice amount and is ready to ride the top teams on the ML all the way to the Final Four.

He's likely staying away from the NBA for now. He thinks last nights games were clearly rigged. Since he murderers the house in college basketball it's time to get back to what he does best.

risking 7.35 units to win 3, Georgetown -245

****. I need Gtown SU. Clearly doomed.
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Old 03-07-2012, 08:14 PM   #179
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Is Oklahoma St -370 not the best play of the night for moneyline. Playing Texas Tech who has one conference win all year.
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Old 03-07-2012, 09:42 PM   #180
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Value Alert!!!

Long Beach State -10000
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Old 03-07-2012, 11:50 PM   #181
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

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Is Oklahoma St -370 not the best play of the night for moneyline. Playing Texas Tech who has one conference win all year.
now 2.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketb...d=201203070444
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Old 03-08-2012, 12:03 AM   #182
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

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That Oklahoma win at home was their only win in conference play all year. With 11 minutes to go Oklahoma St is starting to pull away and looking good.
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Old 03-08-2012, 12:51 AM   #183
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

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Is Oklahoma St -370 not the best play of the night for moneyline. Playing Texas Tech who has one conference win all year.
this is a pretty solid point, can't believe vegas missed that tidbit when setting the line.
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Old 03-08-2012, 08:44 PM   #184
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

UNLV has no chance of losing to Wyoming tonight. -500 is high but the moneyline should be higher
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Old 03-08-2012, 08:46 PM   #185
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

if they have no chance what's the difference?
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Old 03-08-2012, 09:04 PM   #186
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

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if they have no chance what's the difference?
Haha good point. Ok so Wyoming has some chance since they did beat UNLV at home but Wyoming has not beaten a single good team on the road.
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Old 03-08-2012, 09:16 PM   #187
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

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Haha good point. Ok so Wyoming has some chance since they did beat UNLV at home but Wyoming has not beaten a single good team on the road.

The regression study i have been working on, which is totally a work in progress (though I am playing the 5%+ edges very small, mainly for shiggles) suggests UNLV is .814 to .826 to win.

Pinny has the line at -450, so ~.818 to BE. No play there. At -500, I think it is almost certainly a losing wager.
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Old 03-08-2012, 09:35 PM   #188
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

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The regression study i have been working on, which is totally a work in progress (though I am playing the 5%+ edges very small, mainly for shiggles) suggests UNLV is .814 to .826 to win.

Pinny has the line at -450, so ~.818 to BE. No play there. At -500, I think it is almost certainly a losing wager.
And there is the difference between a professional bettor and me. I go by the eye test and how they have played against other similar opponents. And I wouldn't take them straight at -500. I have to throw that into a parlay which has lead me on a 4 week heater but before that could't do much better than 50%. I do appreciate your angles on these games though. Helps out us amateurs.
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Old 03-08-2012, 09:55 PM   #189
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

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And there is the difference between a professional bettor and me. I go by the eye test and how they have played against other similar opponents. And I wouldn't take them straight at -500. I have to throw that into a parlay which has lead me on a 4 week heater but before that could't do much better than 50%. I do appreciate your angles on these games though. Helps out us amateurs.
No problem. And, I could most definitely be wrong.

Also, just FYI (and for anyone else who may have been unintentionally misled), I am not a professional. Just a regular 9-to-5er who gambles (heavily?) on the side (casino, poker, sports) for enjoyment. The stakes I play for may make my friends queasy, but few in here would bat an eye at the unit size.

I only enjoy gambling if I feel I have an edge. I don't enjoy betting on games out of "feel" and you'll never see me playing roulette.
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Old 03-08-2012, 10:04 PM   #190
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

So as someone who seems to have a good amount of knowledge is there an edge is betting $L favorites in parlays or action reverses? I ask cuz that is what I have been doing but only in college bball. I realize long term it is not a smart play but with the amount of college games everyday it is somewhat easier to pick a few winners rather than sweating out the spreads. I have had a good run since starting this but wondering about the longevity of it.

My friend and I also have a different approach in the volume we do. I will bet small on a lot of games but he insists it is better to go big on a few.
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Old 03-08-2012, 10:23 PM   #191
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40...03-2010-a-319/

Are parlays and teasers bad bets?
Generally yes, parlays and teasers are -EV compared to straight bets. Although correlated parlays can be +EV, and teasers through certain numbers (through the 3 and 7) in the NFL (called Wong Teasers or "basic strategy teasers) can be +EV as well. Beyond that, stay away from parlays and teasers unless you are just out for fun.

Sounds like you are just out for fun, so as long as you aren't risking too much, it should be fine. ML parlays (of favorites) allow you to follow more games (I assume you watch/follow games you bet?) and keep your risk small.

To actually answer your question, you need to determine the % of Team X and Team Y winning, and then decide if your payout justifies your risk.

Do it like this:

Team X: should win the game 80%
Team Y: should win the game 70%

So, they will both win 80% x 70% = 56%.

So, if you are risking 100 to win 91, you are making money. If you are risking 100 to win 75, you are losing money.

Or, parlaying a losing ML with anything is a bad bet
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Old 03-08-2012, 10:39 PM   #192
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Long Beach was leading only 15-12 and I was getting worried for all those who got them.at -10000. But they went on a 10-0 run and lead 25-12 now so ship the lox.
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Old 03-09-2012, 12:23 AM   #193
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

I miss Tbab's -400 baseball locks
Micro your locks itt been killing it lately
Heat again?
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Old 03-09-2012, 02:34 AM   #194
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

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Long Beach was leading only 15-12 and I was getting worried for all those who got them.at -10000. But they went on a 10-0 run and lead 25-12 now so ship the lox.
Keep'em coming! Another virtually sweat free lock. I have a feeling some bookies/casinos are sleeping a little less easily knowing these locks are in circulation. Can't wait to get some juicey 1vs16 seed ML matchups next week!
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Old 03-11-2012, 11:53 PM   #195
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

I'm here for the lox
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Old 03-12-2012, 12:07 AM   #196
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

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I'm here for the lox
+1 whats been goin on
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Old 01-03-2017, 03:17 PM   #197
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Read this whole thread and have a similar story with a friend who is laying some pretty large prices in NFL and NBA and has been winning pretty consistently for the past year. Has had some losing weeks but overall is up close to 30K for the period.

He plays all favorites, obviously, and also favors anything with a larger price, happily laying $2-5000 regularly to win 500 to 1000 per play. While he has had some misses his biggest losing week for the period was back during basketball playoffs when Cleveland upset Golden State. Since then he's been winning pretty well, especially this year in the NFL.

He has had some pretty lucky breaks too. Last year I can remember I think two games in particular where Aaron Rogers hit hail marys to win games where he would have lost a fair number, and then I can recall in particular in the NFL playoffs last year two games in particular -- one where Minnesota should've beat Seattle and missed the field goal at the end, and then with Pittsburgh over Denver the Steelers had the lead and the ball with just a small amount of time left and he ended up winning there too. This past weekend he was laying 9500-2000 taking Seattle on the road against SF and even with almost the whole backup squad in the hawks manage two late crucial first downs to keep SF from getting the ball back to even give up a chance at a game winning field goal.

It's been a little uncanny, especially for football. It seems like there have been hardly any upsets since week two or three, particularly with lines in the -320 to -440 range. Last one he was one the wrong side of was Arizona back on Sept 29 but he won with Pittsburgh the same day to offset it somewhat.

Now having read the thread I keep waiting for a huge crash to come but so far it just doesn't seem to be happening. Logic says that favorites even by a touchdown should lose every three to four games or so or the whole proposition wouldn't be feasible, but this year it doesn't seem like that's the case at all. I kind of wonder how long can a streak like this go on?

For fun I'll try to post his plays over the next few weeks in case so you can follow. Monday he had the Raptors laying 2500-500 which he won, so now we'll see if he sticks with basketball for the rest of the week or holds off until the weekend and the NFL.
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Old 01-04-2017, 03:50 AM   #198
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Dino,

On the edge of my seat.
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Old 01-04-2017, 09:25 AM   #199
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

update this thread
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Old 01-08-2017, 09:44 AM   #200
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

9500 2000 # was just some premium porn#

Wtf thought I could pay get some of that fav money?
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