Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-03-2012, 05:16 AM   #76
That Foreign Guy
old hand
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,985
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Is OP's avatar Thremp? Or does asking that make me a racist?
That Foreign Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2012, 08:31 AM   #77
ProfessorBen
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ProfessorBen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Meet my friend, "Tomato"
Posts: 9,878
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

This time OP is definitely MyTurn2Raise.
ProfessorBen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2012, 08:34 AM   #78
Ice Minus
journeyman
 
Ice Minus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 279
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
Ice Minus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2012, 11:07 AM   #79
DMMx69
old hand
 
DMMx69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: This Mortal Coil
Posts: 1,678
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMMx69 View Post
Luke - I am inspired by your friend. Here are my plays today:

risking 103.0 units to win 3, San Antonio Spurs
risking 30 units to win 2.9, BYU


This is the start of something bit. I did have to leverage my BR though as each unit represents 1% of my roll.
I mean, this is just nuts guys. My bookie called me after these two monsters hit and said he is reconsidering taking future bets from me. He is hoping it's just a heater, but it's probably just that I'm an insane-once-in-a-lifetime-handicrapper.

This is like a week straight for me with zero losses. Been betting 3 or 4 a day, so thats 10 plays total, with no losses in 5 days. All I do is look for teams that are awesome and laying tons of points. It's like roulette really.

Anyway, I'm up 5 units on this ML system now. If you all want to start tailing me here are today's ML plays. I know I'm going a little large here, but one of these is too good to pass up. I mean teams like this NEVER lose. Just takes some good analysis on my part, which I have offered below.

risking 1/2 unit to win 0.013, Oregon -3750
(the best team in the PAC12 with a relatively cheap money line since they are at home at a notoriously basketbally place to play. Seems like great value. They may not cover the 18' but they are too good of a team to let a bottom of the pack team upset them on college radio.)

risking 4000 units to win 100, Stony Brook -4000
(another dominate team in their conference going up against one of the weaker teams. Line would be at least 5 points higher if Binghamton wasn't total trash but you get tremendous money line value with the superior team because they are on the road. If you play this on the spread you have to strap a pillow to your ass and worry about the backdoor, but the win should always be safe, and no pillow needed. Binghamton isn't even 8-22 like Southern Illinois.)

Just trying to help you guys out.
DMMx69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2012, 01:08 PM   #80
LukeTheSharp
newbie
 
LukeTheSharp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 47
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

He's back with more winners.

risking 6.6 units to win 4, Memphis ML -165
risking 6.3 units to win 3, St Louis ML -210
LukeTheSharp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2012, 03:47 PM   #81
prophet73
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 615
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

zomg, 8-0 on posted plays in this thread? 54.55 units to win 25? gotta keep it up by posting more! blind following continues!
prophet73 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2012, 05:28 PM   #82
OreosAndMilk
veteran
 
OreosAndMilk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Im a nutcase from a rough place
Posts: 2,133
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

lol this thread
OreosAndMilk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2012, 06:28 PM   #83
Detective McNulty
old hand
 
Detective McNulty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Bodymore, Murdaland
Posts: 1,937
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMMx69 View Post
I mean, this is just nuts guys. My bookie called me after these two monsters hit and said he is reconsidering taking future bets from me. He is hoping it's just a heater, but it's probably just that I'm an insane-once-in-a-lifetime-handicrapper.

This is like a week straight for me with zero losses. Been betting 3 or 4 a day, so thats 10 plays total, with no losses in 5 days. All I do is look for teams that are awesome and laying tons of points. It's like roulette really.

Anyway, I'm up 5 units on this ML system now. If you all want to start tailing me here are today's ML plays. I know I'm going a little large here, but one of these is too good to pass up. I mean teams like this NEVER lose. Just takes some good analysis on my part, which I have offered below.

risking 1/2 unit to win 0.013, Oregon -3750
(the best team in the PAC12 with a relatively cheap money line since they are at home at a notoriously basketbally place to play. Seems like great value. They may not cover the 18' but they are too good of a team to let a bottom of the pack team upset them on college radio.)

risking 4000 units to win 100, Stony Brook -4000
(another dominate team in their conference going up against one of the weaker teams. Line would be at least 5 points higher if Binghamton wasn't total trash but you get tremendous money line value with the superior team because they are on the road. If you play this on the spread you have to strap a pillow to your ass and worry about the backdoor, but the win should always be safe, and no pillow needed. Binghamton isn't even 8-22 like Southern Illinois.)

Just trying to help you guys out.
Detective McNulty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2012, 07:50 PM   #84
DMMx69
old hand
 
DMMx69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: This Mortal Coil
Posts: 1,678
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LukeTheSharp View Post
He's back with more winners.

risking 6.6 units to win 4, Memphis ML -165
risking 6.3 units to win 3, St Louis ML -210
Well done. Can we get some more analysis though for future picks? Much more confidence tailing you when you have a write-up, even if it is brief. Thanks.
DMMx69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2012, 07:52 PM   #85
HolidayInTheSun
adept
 
HolidayInTheSun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 999
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

man the guy just wins
HolidayInTheSun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2012, 10:59 AM   #86
DMMx69
old hand
 
DMMx69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: This Mortal Coil
Posts: 1,678
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMMx69 View Post
risking 1/2 unit to win 0.013, Oregon -3750
risking 4000 units to win 100, Stony Brook -4000
Now 4-0, +105.913 units.

Just called my bookie with today's plays. He says he is thinking about cutting me off, and I could hear a tremble in his voice. Says he has never seen a capper who can identify these plays like me. "Once-in-a-lifetime." His words.

Unfortunately he is now not letting me bet 1000 units or more on a game. Also won't let me bet a prime number of units - something about that he doesn't want to allow me to form some progression betting system that will be a guaranteed winner.

So this makes 3 weeks straight of winners, with zero ML losses. Sometimes I hedge a bit with the spreads, but don't worry about that because it really makes little sense.

Two ball-buster plays today. I isolated these as winners myself. No mathematics - just using my college basketball knowledge. Here are some old winners I bet just so you can see how good my knowledge is.

Duke (top team at home) ML over Longwood (flaccid competition)
Ohio St. (top team with a player of the year candidate) over South Carolina Upstate (wait, who?)
UNC (best team with powder blue uniforms) over Mississippi Valley State (not good team)

I'm doing a tremendous job of isolating teams that are dominate. I'm getting really good prices on these too just because. But really, what does the ML even matter when they all win?

I used to be afraid to think like this until I became really sharp. I'll only bet a game if it is not possible for the team to lose. Only way I can get hurt if if a team I bet on loses, but strip that aside and it's all Ws.

Here's what we have today. It's this simple (not my words.)

risking 73 units to win 10 units, Wisconsin -730
(once again a team with a nice, cheap price...Badgers are the best team in the Big Ten named for a rodent and have a large talent edge on Illinois)

Risking 1/4 units to win .058824, Arizona -425
(another dominate team in their conference going up against one of the weaker teams. Line would be at least 5 points higher if Arizona was at home but you get tremendous money line value with the superior team because they are on the road. If you play this on the spread you worry about a backdoor cover but the win should always be safe, Arizona State is just 8-22, or something like that)

Last edited by DMMx69; 03-04-2012 at 11:00 AM. Reason: It's this simple.
DMMx69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2012, 11:26 AM   #87
VenturaMike
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 75
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

7-0 posted plays impressive!!!!!
VenturaMike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2012, 05:12 PM   #88
LukeTheSharp
newbie
 
LukeTheSharp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 47
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

He bet St Marys and Columbia for 4 and 5 units yesterday and won but I couldn't get on here to post. You can ignore it since it wasn't in this thread. Still given the 2 other wins he's now won 19 straight days. I've never seen anything like this.

He just put this in.

risking 25 units to win 5, vermont -500
LukeTheSharp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2012, 05:14 PM   #89
LukeTheSharp
newbie
 
LukeTheSharp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 47
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

And for those that are tailing his picks (and I wouldn't see why you wouldn't considering mortals don't win 20 days in a row) he just informed me that he's very excited for the opening round of the tournament. He expects to see countless moneyline opportunities to pound.

Get excited.
LukeTheSharp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2012, 05:16 PM   #90
DMMx69
old hand
 
DMMx69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: This Mortal Coil
Posts: 1,678
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LukeTheSharp View Post
(and I wouldn't see why you wouldn't considering mortals don't win 20 days in a row)
Oh -well this changes things completely. I didn't realize your friend was some sort of god. If that is the case, this entire thread makes much more sense.

Last edited by DMMx69; 03-04-2012 at 05:18 PM. Reason: mortal, thus can't type good
DMMx69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2012, 05:18 PM   #91
umwolverine
stranger
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 7
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMMx69 View Post
Oh -well this changed things completely. I didn't realize your friend was some sort of god. If that is the case, this entire thread makes much more sense.
Haters gonna hate. Do Work, Luke!!!
umwolverine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2012, 05:43 PM   #92
Poogs
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,413
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LukeTheSharp View Post
And for those that are tailing his picks (and I wouldn't see why you wouldn't considering mortals don't win 20 days in a row) he just informed me that he's very excited for the opening round of the tournament. He expects to see countless moneyline opportunities to pound.

Get excited.
if this is trolling.... bravo
Poogs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2012, 05:46 PM   #93
B00T
Pooh-Bah
 
B00T's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 5,231
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Poogs View Post
boot im goin to the rangers vs bruins game in NY april 1st
Missed the game today, what happened???


POOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOGS
B00T is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2012, 06:45 PM   #94
Ice Minus
journeyman
 
Ice Minus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 279
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMMx69 View Post
Risking 1/4 units to win .058824, Arizona -425
(another dominate team in their conference going up against one of the weaker teams. Line would be at least 5 points higher if Arizona was at home but you get tremendous money line value with the superior team because they are on the road. If you play this on the spread you worry about a backdoor cover but the win should always be safe, Arizona State is just 8-22, or something like that)
phew! dodged a bullet! good thing you only had a quarter of a unit on it!
Ice Minus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2012, 08:23 PM   #95
WildBobAA
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
WildBobAA's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Erangel
Posts: 6,661
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

subscribed
WildBobAA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2012, 11:24 PM   #96
LukeTheSharp
newbie
 
LukeTheSharp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 47
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

He improved to 9-0 after Vermont gets it done. Can somebody add up the units won? I don't have a calculator handy and I'm losing track of all the units accumulated.

I do know he's won 21 straight days, though.
LukeTheSharp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2012, 11:40 PM   #97
Pray No More
journeyman
 
Pray No More's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 354
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

I love when my -500 plays win in double OT
Pray No More is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2012, 12:50 AM   #98
LukeTheSharp
newbie
 
LukeTheSharp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 47
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

He's won 21 straight days and has accumulated over 70 units of profit. Nobody betting through my bookie has ever even made 40 units. Yeah it seems wreckless to do this but he's something like 23-0 on basketball ML bets.
LukeTheSharp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2012, 01:11 AM   #99
MicroBob
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
MicroBob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 61,582
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Luke, to repeat my earlier question: you said he made a ton of bets. You also say it is 23 bets in 21 days....which included a few multi-bet days in thks thread. Take away 9 bets in 3 days and we are left with 14 bets in 18 days to start. Please explain how this is a lot of bets. Thanks.
MicroBob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2012, 01:19 AM   #100
DMMx69
old hand
 
DMMx69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: This Mortal Coil
Posts: 1,678
Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMMx69 View Post
Now 4-0, +105.913 units

....

Here's what we have today. It's this simple (not my words.)

risking 73 units to win 10 units, Wisconsin -730
(once again a team with a nice, cheap price...Badgers are the best team in the Big Ten named for a rodent and have a large talent edge on Illinois)

Risking 1/4 units to win .058824, Arizona -425
(another dominate team in their conference going up against one of the weaker teams. Line would be at least 5 points higher if Arizona was at home but you get tremendous money line value with the superior team because they are on the road. If you play this on the spread you worry about a backdoor cover but the win should always be safe, Arizona State is just 8-22, or something like that)
Well my bookie voided the Wisky bet because I can't wager prime numbers. The Arizona win was pretty sweet though. I only bet 1/4 unit because I knew this one would be a close win, even though Arizona is dominate.


So, 1-0 tonight, +0.058824 units

Overall: 5-0, +105.971824 units

Bookie says he has never seen anything like this. Up over 105.971823 units in 3 days!

I'll be back tomorrow with some more plays I hope. Need to do some in-depth analysis to bring you more goodness.
DMMx69 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:29 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online