Quote:
Originally Posted by DodgerIrish
I guarantee some people lost some money today and it illustrates the issues w/ touts, or just tailing someone in general.
By the time they gain ur trust ... ur just signing up for the other side of variance
Not neccessarily. Your entrance into trailing a winning gambler's picks is independent of his selection process and should have no effect on the outcome of his subsequent picks. In a crunch I will blindly fade certain cappers picks, they are long term winners, and long term I win doing this regardless of how often or which days I choose to follow them.
If a coinflipper convinces you to trail his picks, you will probably end up losing alot of juice before you realize you are chasing your tail. Many coinflippers can occassionally use a rush of positive variance to attract followers/customers. Inevitably their coinflip expectations(losing juice) are revealed as their sample size approaches infinity. The key is never trailing the nealy 99% of people who coinflip or lose long term.