Quote:
Originally Posted by LukeTheSharp
My friend is on these tonight. I'll outline the strategy in parentheses that I discussed above.
It's this simple: take a far superior team on the road with a dumbed down moneyline because the oddsmakers are dumb enough to think home court/home ice mean a ton ML wise.
risking 3.5 units to win 2, Miami Heat -175 (the best team in the NBA with a relatively cheap money line since they are on the road in a notoriously tough place to play. Seems like great value. They may not cover the 4 but they are too good of a team to let a middle of the pack Western Conference team upset them on national TV)
risking 2.8 units to win 2, Rangers -140 (once again a road team with a nice, cheap price...Rangers are the best team in the Eastern Conference and have a large talent edge on the Hurricanes)
risking 5.25 units to win 3, Indiana State ML -210 (another dominate team in their conference going up against one of the weaker teams. Line would be at least 5 points higher if Indiana State was at home but you get tremendous money line value with the superior team because they are on the road. If you play this on the spread you worry about a backdoor cover but the win should always be safe, Southern Illinois is just 8-22)
The market has moved against all three picks.
Favorites on the ML may or may not be undervalued in certain subsets, and if thats the case then yes, you might accidentatly be on to something. But its more than likely hes on a heater. All it takes is a small losing streak to kill you when laying chalk like this all the time.