Quote:
Originally Posted by OGGambler
Oh Man!!!! Now I get it. You guys hit the nail. Now that you explain it like that I see why parlays aren't worthwhile thanks for the help guys.
The ONLY time parlays are better bets (from an expectation perspective) than regular bets is when they are correlated--i.e. when one happens the other is likely to happen.
For an extreme example, say there were two bets--the Lakers winning today, and Kobe scoring more than 50 points. Odds are, if Kobe goes for more than 50 points, the Lakers are probably going to win. So even if neither bet was +EV on its own, the odds of them BOTH happening simultaneously is more than the multiplied probability of each--P(A and B) > P(A)*P(B). In that case, if you're getting good enough odds on your parlay, it may have +EV.
The most common bet like this is an underdog spread bet with an under on the total or a favorite spread bet with an over, because if there are very few points scored the game is likely to be close, etc.
However, most online books know this and will not let you bet correlated parlays (namely, totals/spreads on the same game).
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebayareabeast
Dont let them tell you ALL PARLAYS ARE BAD BETS. Thats just wrong.
Money line parlays can be great bets, just one example.
Unless you explain yourself, I'm going to assume you don't know what your talking about. Because it sounds like your rationale is "if you get good underdog odds and parlay them you can make more money!"