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Old 10-22-2012, 09:55 PM   #1
PropPlayer
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The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

This topic is covered is covered in the Sports Betting Forum FAQ. If after reading that you still have 'should I hedge' or 'how to hedge' questions ask them here.

Last edited by PropPlayer; 12-23-2012 at 06:25 AM.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:28 PM   #2
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Good week..Opinions on hedge

Saturday night I had an heartbreaking parlay loss:

500 to win 6300:
PSU v Purde (psu -3)

Stanford v Colorado (stanford -27)

WMU v CMU (WMU -1)

Finally: WVU v TCU (WVU -3) <---If anyone watched this game, they will understand the heartbreak.

So after, a disappointing saturday, Sunday was met with the following parlays:

500 to win 6500:

GB-10
Baltimore -3.5
Denver -4.5
Det-6

350 to win 13k

GB-10
GB o43.5
Denver 1st half -3
Baltimore -3.5
Atl -3
NO -3

250 to win 1400:

CHI -4
ATL -3
NO -3

After ATL covered last night:

5k on Philly+3

Standard hedge?
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:55 PM   #3
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Thumbs up re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

Quote:
Originally Posted by YoumadBrah View Post
Standard hedge?
No, perhaps it is for people that don't understand what a parlay bet is. Let me break down why your bet was a mistake at the start.

A six team parlay where all selections are -110 (1.91) is this:

Bet #1 $350 to win $318.18 (On win have $350+$318.18=$668.18)
Bet #2 $668.18 to win $607.44 (on win have $668.18+$607.44=$1275.62)
Bet #3 $1275.62 to win $1159.65 (on a win have $2435.27)
Bet #4 $2435.27 to win $2213.88 (on win have $4649.15)
Bet #5 $4649.15 to win $4226.50 (on a win have 8875.65)
Bet #6 $8875.65 to win $8068.77

Win all six and you have $16944 of which $350 was stake and $16,594 profit.

Now for yours all selections were probably not -110 which is why it is less. But what I'm pointing out is the same.

Understand all a parlay bet is, is a wager where your stake + win keeps getting rolled forward to the next play.

So adding another team you're going to hedge accomplishes nothing but locking in less money than you would have been paid if you didn't add that selection in the first place.

Back to my example:

Bet #5 $4649.15 to win $4226.50 (on a win have 8875.65)

At this point we had $8875.65. But we added another play of:

Bet #6 $8875.65 to win $8068.77

So to hedge this what we end up doing here is betting other side at -110 too staking $8875.65 so we have $16,944.42 return regardless who wins. Now in this case we've staked $350+$8875.65= $9,225.65. Our profit is $16,944.42 - $9,225.65 = -$7,718.77.

Again backing up to bet #5. Had we had never added team #6 we'd of had $8875.65 - $350 stake = $8,525.65

So by adding a team you didn't want to a $350 parlay and doing a 6 team parlay instead of a 5 team parlay without that team, you piss away $806.88 for absolutely no reason, other than lacked understanding of how parlays work.

So to answer your question no absolutely not standard to anyone who understands the very basics of betting - it is the opposite - foolish is adding that team in the first place.

Now to answer should you hedge for this specific play? - this is covered in the FAQ that is stickied. The important thing to gain from this is do not add teams you don't want to parlays in the first place. You would get paid more by simply never having them included than to include them and turn around hedging when it makes it to the end.

Last edited by PropPlayer; 11-05-2012 at 01:01 PM.
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:34 PM   #4
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

Can we get through 1 week without a SHUD I HEJ thread?
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:41 PM   #5
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

subtle brag thread
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:42 PM   #6
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

Okay, thanks for the detailed response. I'm okay with having NO-3 in my parlay, however now that it's down to just the one team, I'm hedging to secure a nice win. That's all. I don't want 14,500 riding on one game.
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:44 PM   #7
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

maybe, add propplayer's reponse to the FAQ as the standard reply to should I hedge?
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:56 PM   #8
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

Yeah, I apologize for my ignorance in regards to the proper use of this forum. I haven't used the sports betting side of this website before. Thanks for the help Prop, and I'll look to the stickies for future questions.
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Old 11-05-2012, 02:02 PM   #9
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

No worries here, I didn't write out the details for a reason other than trying to be helpful. Adding extra teams to parlays and then hedging seems very common. This comes up all the time on many forums, but it is a very costly mistake that's best to realize and break. Was only trying to point it out so know for next time and this time sure hedge and make it the last time is probably the best idea.
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Old 11-05-2012, 02:06 PM   #10
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

Yeah it was a very helpful response. I read the sticky, and to me hedging is best to secure a profit, since it's a significant amount of money and I'd like to secure a profit. However, I will certainly reconsider my betting in the future.
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Old 11-05-2012, 03:19 PM   #11
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

Put this in the FAQ too.

Quote:
When are the donks going to figure out that the proper hedge was not including the last leg to begin with? Let's see.. I could win 350 after sunday.. or win 350 after sunday and be forced to put it all on the bears ml which is obviously way more than I want to gamble on bears ML because I'm here making this crapass thread.


-TomCowley
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Old 11-05-2012, 03:54 PM   #12
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

The problem is legitimate though, there are tons of recreational gamblers that just don't understand the dynamics of parlays and add a game with the intent to hedge. If tell someone once and they come back asking again then sure dumbass thread. But some are going to get it the first time when why is explained to them. Most guys making these threads are just lottery players, fans or whatever excited with the win and are now looking for help. Helping them by pointing to a default response isn't harmful on any quantifiable level imo so not much wrong with letting the fans enjoy their wins.
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Old 11-05-2012, 06:47 PM   #13
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

The only time a hedge in this case might make sense is if the winning picks correlate to a better line for the hedge, and/or the parlay pays marginally better for the extra pick.

For example, I bet 10 NFL game parlay on the unders, 9 Sunday games and 1 Monday night. If all 9 games hit Sunday I will likely get a juicy Monday night over probably a point or 2 less than the number was Sunday morning.
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Old 11-05-2012, 06:52 PM   #14
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

Quote:
Originally Posted by PropPlayer View Post
The problem is legitimate though, there are tons of recreational gamblers that just don't understand the dynamics of parlays and add a game with the intent to hedge. If tell someone once and they come back asking again then sure dumbass thread. But some are going to get it the first time when why is explained to them. Most guys making these threads are just lottery players, fans or whatever excited with the win and are now looking for help. Helping them by pointing to a default response isn't harmful on any quantifiable level imo so not much wrong with letting the fans enjoy their wins.
I agree 100%. I just find it ridiculous that they pop up every single week. I'm glad you wrote the response that you did, it was very good. If should be added to FAQ and then OldBob can just zap every thread that is made on the issue.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:01 PM   #15
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

Quote:
Originally Posted by PropPlayer View Post
No worries here, I didn't write out the details for a reason other than trying to be helpful. Adding extra teams to parlays and then hedging seems very common. This comes up all the time on many forums, but it is a very costly mistake that's best to realize and break. Was only trying to point it out so know for next time and this time sure hedge and make it the last time is probably the best idea.
Your last post was very informative. I do a lot of small time sports betting. And by small time I mean SMALL. I have $14 on -3 tonight and $11 on the over.
So anyways, I will on occasion do a 6 or 7 team parlay for like $20. I had never though about just rolling over the bet. I am actually quite disappointed in myself that I have never done that instead of a parlay. Thank you for helping my small time endeavors.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:40 PM   #16
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

PropPlayer for mod?
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:41 PM   #17
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

Quote:
Originally Posted by Poogs View Post
PropPlayer for mod?
He be green.
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Old 12-15-2012, 06:44 PM   #18
ZachShalack420
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Hedging parlay bets??

Noob to sports betting, the Govt took my poker away so I figure I'd give it a shot .

Tonight I have 2 parlays. A 4team and a 3team.





Can you hedge out of a parley bet if any of your early legs miss, or can u only hedge if youve covered to the last leg?
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Old 12-15-2012, 07:43 PM   #19
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Re: Hedging parlay bets??

try the FAQ, and then see if you still have this same question.
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Old 12-15-2012, 08:47 PM   #20
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Re: Hedging parlay bets??

wait, you wanna know if one of the games loses if you can.....what?

all of your games have to win.

if you've won the first 3 and you have one more to go, why would you hedge? if you were gonna hedge then why did you add the 4th leg to begin with?

you're seriously asking if one of your games loses then can you hedge?

i don't even
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Old 12-16-2012, 01:16 AM   #21
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

If one of the selections lose the bet is a loss. Do read the FAQ. Making parlay bets where you know you are going to hedge is the same as throwing money out your car window on the expressway. Why is covered well in this article: http://www.intensegambling.com/sport...ategy/parlays/
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Old 12-16-2012, 02:00 AM   #22
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re: The Official 'Should I Hedge Thread'

prop awesome response on first page that actually helped me out as well.
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Old 12-17-2012, 06:49 PM   #23
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Should I hedge against my Notre Dame Future

I was in Vegas back in October and bought a 5 to 1 future on Notre Dame.

I'll be back in Vegas during the game, and I'm debating if I should bet Alabama on the ML (some where around -325), as insurance to guarantee a profit.

I'm actually more leaning toward adding to my bet, by picking ND (+10) to cover the spread, this way I can win both bets and still have little insurance if Alabama wins in a close one.

Any thoughts?
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Old 12-17-2012, 06:51 PM   #24
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Re: Should I hedge against my Notre Dame Future

my thoughts are that you should get better odds on your bet.
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Old 12-17-2012, 06:58 PM   #25
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Re: Should I hedge against my Notre Dame Future

Listen to your heart
when he's calling for you.
Listen to your heart
there's nothing else you can do.
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