Two Plus Two Poker Forums Odds Boost Theory Question
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

 Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

 03-28-2021, 01:48 AM #1 EpicEpicurean stranger   Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 4 Odds Boost Theory Question Hi all, I have a sports betting theory question. I bet at low enough limits and lose enough money to be regularly offered various promotions and odds boosts at several online sites. I have a question about whether I am approaching these offers from a theoretically sound perspective or if I'm making sucker's bets when I think I'm being +EV. The bulk of these offers are 2 or 3 leg parlays, i.e. something like Sharks +1.5/Avalanche -1.5 @ +275. I attempt to determine which of these offers are worth betting on by: 1) ~30 or so minutes before the first leg of one of these boosted offers begins, I input the Pinnacle odds into this no-vig calculator to determine the no-vig probabilities of each leg hitting. https://sportsbettingsites.org/betti...ig-calculator/ 2) I use basic multiplication to calculate the combined probabilities of all legs hitting 3) I use the below Kelly Calculator to determine the appropriate bet size giving the probability of the parlay hitting and the size of my bankroll and the odds I am receiving https://dqydj.com/kelly-criterion-bet-calculator/ Is this approach sound? It feels sound but I don't know enough math to be certain. Some of these parlay legs start several hours after the first leg begins, when I am calculate the odds off the pinnacle lines. Is this a significant risk, where I'm not actually calculating probabilities accurately? Are these kelly and/or no-vig calculators inaccurate? Are there other risks I'm not even cognizant of? I am posting this because I have had a bad few weeks in a row where a lot of these bets have missed. I think this is because the sample size is small and when you make a lot of +150 to +750 bets, you're going to lose a lot of them --- but I'd like a sanity check. My goal is to ensure I'm not making +EV bets when selectively betting these odds boosts, not throwing darts like the proverbial chimp. Thank you for any comments!
 04-06-2021, 11:37 PM #2 rabbitcoin centurion   Join Date: Jan 2021 Location: Nevada, USA Posts: 155 Re: Odds Boost Theory Question If Pinnacle has the most accurate lines for the markets you are betting into, then step 1 is ok. Assuming the events are independent of each other step 2 is ok. After that, I'd be more worried that the book giving you these promotions is adjusting the parlay payout significantly in their favor, before worrying about whether the lines on the legs that don't start until several hours later might move against you. Expected Value can be verified before you make the bet. Use the probability you calculated in step 2 to determine what the fair payout on a particular parlay should be. If the parlay payout quoted to you by the book before you confirm the bet is less than the fair payout, obviously you are making a bet with a negative expected value.
04-08-2021, 09:26 AM   #3
EpicEpicurean
stranger

Join Date: Nov 2020
Posts: 4
Re: Odds Boost Theory Question

Quote:
 Originally Posted by rabbitcoin If Pinnacle has the most accurate lines for the markets you are betting into, then step 1 is ok. Assuming the events are independent of each other step 2 is ok. After that, I'd be more worried that the book giving you these promotions is adjusting the parlay payout significantly in their favor, before worrying about whether the lines on the legs that don't start until several hours later might move against you. Expected Value can be verified before you make the bet. Use the probability you calculated in step 2 to determine what the fair payout on a particular parlay should be. If the parlay payout quoted to you by the book before you confirm the bet is less than the fair payout, obviously you are making a bet with a negative expected value.

This makes sense to me, and actually provides some reassurance about my approach. Logically it made sense to me but I'm new to this stuff so don't know if I am missing something obvious. I have been calculating the EV of all of these boosts using pinnacle no-vig odds to estimate "actual odds" -- it is very funny how many of these boosts are still terrible bets! I pass on 90% of these offers but still find 1 or 2 a day across the books I have access to, that are +EV per the above approach.

You do raise a good point about an odds boost that is say a two leg parlay with one leg starting at 3pm and another at 8pm -- maybe the bet is +EV looking at both no-vig pinnacle lines when I place the bet at 3pm, but the 8pm line could move against me to the extent that the bet is no longer +EV.

So that brings me to my other question:

say I find one of those wagers where the odds boost puts this into +EV territory when the first leg closes. There is risk that the later leg moves against me by the time that game begins -- is it a safe assumption to make that on balance, the pinnacle line is equally likely to move for me as it is against me during that gap between legs?

 04-10-2021, 01:57 AM #4 rabbitcoin centurion   Join Date: Jan 2021 Location: Nevada, USA Posts: 155 Re: Odds Boost Theory Question The main point I wanted to make is, try to confirm if the parlay payouts are fair to you, because I doubt they are. Obviously I can't say for sure without seeing what kind of odds boosts you are getting and what payouts are being quoted to you, but the book I work at reduces parlay payouts. You seem thoughtful enough that if you Google around you should be able to figure out how to calculate what the fair value of your payouts should be, and compare that to what payouts are being quoted to you to see if you are getting shorted. As for line movements, that's a whole other topic that I wouldn't even worry about until you confirm if you are even getting a good deal on the payouts. Last edited by rabbitcoin; 04-10-2021 at 02:07 AM.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Links to Popular Forums     News, Views, Gossip and Books     Beginners Questions     Marketplace & Staking     Casino & Cardroom Poker     Internet Poker     NL Strategy Forums     Poker Goals & Challenges     Las Vegas Lifestyle     Sporting Events     Other Other Topics Two Plus Two     About the Forums     Two Plus Two Magazine Forum Marketplace & Staking     Commercial Marketplace     General Marketplace     Staking - Offering Stakes     Staking         Staking - Offering Stakes         Staking - Seeking Stakes         Staking - Selling Shares - Online         Staking - Selling Shares - Live         Staking Rails         Transaction Feedback & Disputes     Transaction Feedback & Disputes Coaching & Training     Coaching Advice     Cash Game Poker Coach Listings     Tournament/SNG Poker Coach Listings Poker News & Discussion     News, Views, Gossip and Books     Poker Goals & Challenges     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     That's What She Said!     Legislation for Poker & Income Taxes for Poker Players     Twitch - Watch and Discuss Live Online Poker     Televised Poker General Poker Strategy     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Poker Tells/Behavior, hosted by: Zachary Elwood     Poker Theory     Psychology No Limit Hold'em Strategy     Medium-High Stakes PL/NL     Micro-Small Stakes PL/NL     Medium-High Stakes Full Ring     Micro-Small Stakes Full Ring     Heads Up NL     Live Low-stakes NL Limit Texas Hold'em Strategy     Mid-High Stakes Limit     Micro-Small Stakes Limit Tournament Poker Strategy     STT Strategy     Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos     Mid-High Stakes MTT     Small Stakes MTT     MTT Community     Tournament Events Other Poker Strategy     High Stakes PL Omaha     Small Stakes PL Omaha     Omaha/8     Stud     Draw and Other Poker Live Poker     Casino & Cardroom Poker         Venues & Communities         Regional Communities     Venues & Communities     Tournament Events         WPT.com     Home Poker     Cash Strategy     Tournament Strategy Internet Poker     Internet Poker         Global Poker         BetOnline.ag Online Poker     Commercial Software     Software         Commercial Software         Free Software General Gambling     Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.     Probability     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics         OOTV         Game of Thrones     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     Las Vegas Lifestyle     BBV4Life         omg omg omg     House of Blogs Sports and Games     Sporting Events         Single-Team Season Threads         Fantasy Sports     Fantasy Sports         Sporting Events     Wrestling     Golf     Chess and Other Board Games     Video Games         League of Legends         Hearthstone     Puzzles and Other Games Other Topics     Politics and Society     History     Business, Finance, and Investing     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Religion, God, and Theology     Travel     Health and Fitness     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Programming

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:11 PM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top