Quote:
Originally Posted by Jwoods
For each nba game, you bet the moneyline favorite, and take the underdog with the points. You’re guaranteed to win one bet, and occasionally will win both. I’m sure I’m missing something though
you're missing a lot, notably vig means you still lose when you "break even" and due to the asymmetric lines you're risking a lot for minor rewards betting on some of the favorites
take tomorrow's lines, let's say $100 units
NYK +2 -107 = $107 to win $100
MEM -122 = $122 to win $100
MIN +8.5 -105 = $105 to win $100
BOS -378 = $378 to win $100
no other lines out yet
perfect day = risk $712 to win $400
faves cover spread = loss of $12
dogs win = loss of $400
you can easily backtest this scraping historic opening lines and seeing how much money you'd have lost betting it on the season
