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Noob question on parlay angle

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09-11-2009 , 01:39 PM

cjk73

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 549

I know you guys have seen/heard it all and I know I must be mising something here but can someone just set me straight on how I am thinking about this incorrectly (ie if something seems too basic/good you have to be missing something)?

If you can get a parlay at 2.6, i.e. risk 50 to win 130, what is wrong with the following (just assume Cincy -4 is a good play for the example):

Place two parlays:

1. Cincy -4 & Chi -3.5, 50 to win 130
2. Cincy -4 & Chi +3.5, 50 to win 130

So basically you are taking Cincy -4 at +130.

What am I doing wrong?

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09-11-2009 , 01:43 PM

TomCowley

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 5,649

Math

If cincy wins, you win 1 parlay and lose the other, for a net profit of 80.
If cincy loses, you lose both parlays for a net loss of 100.

So you're risking 100 to win 80, which is -125. Better off betting it straight obviously.

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09-11-2009 , 01:46 PM

Cusipz

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,408

Not only that, but if Cincy ties (wins by 4), you'll lose money as both parlays will reduce to straight bets and the one that wins will pay less than 50.

Compared to a straight bet push which of course you break even.

So, yeah, not a good plan....lol.

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09-11-2009 , 01:59 PM

cjk73

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 549

Quite obvious now!

I was treating the 130 as profit, as in getting 130 + my 50 back. Dumb.

Thanks guys.

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09-11-2009 , 02:16 PM

ImStillBen

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,790

BetOnline, how I miss you so.

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