I didn't see an NHL thread so I figured I'd get one going. Though I'm not sure how much interest in hockey there is here. Would encourage ppl to include reasoning for their picks to foster discussion, not just the picks themselves but that of course would be fine too.

I'll get started.


Tonight:

Canadiens (-115)

Montreal has been a surprise in terms of expectations, when most were expecting a losing season this year. They seem to have rebounded from a recent losing skid but still not getting the respect they deserve in terms of betting odds... They'll host the Hurricanes who have lost 4 of their last 5, which seems to coincide with the injury of Michael Ferland. He is questionable to return tonight. Back-up goaltender Petr Mrazek is expected to get the start against Carey Price who has been consistent as of late... Just over two weeks ago, the Canes beat the Habs (2-1 in Carolina), so the Habs will have the revenge factor going for them as well...


2 units on the Habs if Ferland is still out, 1 unit if he returns.


good luck!

And I'll throw in a 2nd pick for tonight. 2 units on ...

Kings/Jackets under 6 (-115)

Kings are offensively challenged and have had a reputation as being a top defensive team in recent years. Jackets too are known for defensive play, though have struggled lately in this regard. If a team is to put up 3+ goals I expect it will be the Jackets.. but I expect one or both of the goalies (Bob and/or Quick) will play well enough to keep the total under 6.


I'll keep track of my results if anyone cares..

NHL season record: 0-0-0
ROI: 0%
Profit: 0
Units risked: 0

Alrighty we're off to a good start. Things were going against us early on but we rallied.. Kings/Jackets premise was on point, thanks to a scoreless 3rd period.



NHL season record: 2-0-0
ROI: 86.9%
Profit: 3.48 units
Risked: 4 units


As of now only 2 sets of lines have been published. I'll add another pick later if I see any value..

Golden Knights (-135)
1 unit

Knights have been rolling as winners in 4 of their last 5 and 8 of their last 10... Devils will have Schneider in net, who has been atrocious dating back to last year and in the limited time he has seen this year. They are also potentially without the services of Taylor Hall, which would be a huge hit to the offense.


Hopefully I'm not talking to myself much longer sad face emoji

I had been awaiting the Caps to announce their starter tonight before committing to anything. Though not "confirmed", I have found "likely" status of a starting goalie to be reliable enough

Line opened at Caps (-150) but has since come down to -130, presumably on the expectation that back-up goalie Phoenix Copley would get the starting nod in the Caps first game of a back-to-back. However, it's being reported that Holtby will be the likely starter. Seems like a golden opportunity at the moment, as the lines have yet to adjust to reflect the probable Hotlby start and considering the Canes played last night.


2 units on Caps (-130)
1 unit on Caps puckline (+192)
1 unit on Caps in regulation ( +125)
1/2 unit on Caps over 3.5 (+125)


Obviously these bets are highly correlated, so hopefully it pays off.

Last night was a roller coaster of emotion. First pick looked to be stress-free as the Knights went up 3-0 early, but ended up losing in OT. And on the flip side, the Caps were getting trounced early but came back from down 1-4 with 4 unanswered goals. If not for a miscue by Holtby trying to clear the puck behind the net in the 3rd, we'd have been in great position to sweep the set of picks. We had to settle for a shootout win and the thinnest of profit margin on the set, +0.16 units.


NHL season record: 4-3-0
ROI: 27.8%
Profit: +2.64 units
Risked: 9.5 units



Tonight, I like 1 unit on the Habs puckline (-110) primarily due to the Sens back-up goalie McKenna getting the start on the road in the back-to-back. Duchene injury perhaps a factor as well. Excluding last game, the Sens have struggled to score goals.

Also eyeing at Devils +175, but waiting to hear word on the Taylor Hall injury situation. Over 6 looks good as well considering Saros/Kinkaid starting, but want to hear some news on Hall.

Pulled the trigger on Red Wings +199.. just 1 unit. I haven't been following either team, but it seems (to me at least and without going over much data) that the Isles have a gaping hole in offense this year without JT.+192 seems like way too good a price.

Hall won't be going tonight for the Devils, which may explain the O/U knocked down from 6 to 5.5. I took Over 6 (-105) for a 1 unit and putting an additional 1/2 unit on over 5.5 (-120). I decided against betting on the Devils moneyline given Hall's absence.

Got on Yotes/Canes over 5.5 (-115) 1 unit just before the game, might be good odds/worth a live bet if there isn't a goal by the midway point of the first period.

Yesterday was a net loss. Would have been splight positive had the Wings not blown their lead... Will update the math later, along with a possible pick for tonight.

Wasn’t planning on betting tonight. But I just took Jackets -130, 1 unit upon seeing Subban starting for Vegas. Line seems to have bounced back so probably a no-go at -140.

Yesterday was bad. Will update numbers tomorrow

NHL season record: 6-7-0
ROI: 5.4%
Profit: +0.81 units
Risked: 15 units


Jackets were the only favored team that won last night. Would've been on the Canucks a few nights ago but they aren't good about announcing who is starting in net until very late.

Tonight I'm fading the Flyers, 1.5 units on Red Wings +144. Seems like good value considering the Flyers just fired their coach and new goalie called up and could be making his NHL debut. Though it's possible the veteran Neuvirth starts. Not sure how teams fare the first game after firing the head coach, but we'll see what happens here. I expect the line to move

you still in ?
how about betting on tampa all season loll you cant be down !
boston /buffalo/preds under 5 in competitive matchup is a must...really good defense and their strategy is defense-oriented

Hello, yes still here! Tampa is always too expensive, I try not to bet on odds worse than -135..

Lately I've been going with the Under and it's been working out for the most part.. I had Jackets/Devils under 6 today and then for tonight I'm taking Kings/Knights under 6 and Isles/Stars under 6. Just 1 unit since both lines are -115.

Are you betting on anything tonight?

Same , instead of picking a match winner...im going more in-depth in the game! over/under home goal/away goal/players point/players goals...imo there more value into those lines since i play and watch nhl hockey for 30 years lol
betting on winning team is sooo deceptive and unpredictable! ofc if you only bet single i can see why for example you would like to bet on LA vs WIN in Winnipeg because they just fkn beat them 4-1 lol just like that if i remember correctly! last team in the league on the roads, in the league overall just beat the 3rd or 4 th team in the league...that blew my mind each and every times loll ofc J quick was back..that patch a huge hole in their defense!


i think you just all the sudden hit the right path lol
i dont like to bet single personally i prefer double/trouble...im going such in-depth that i can do that i believe!
i liked your isl vs dal under 6...

gonna cliff note to take a look at your thread the 27 , when the nhl action is coming back

What book(s) do you use?

I'm mostly on Bookmaker but haven't seen player props. I know 5dimes has them.. The prop I bet a lot on if there will be a goal in the first 10 min of a game, which is probably correlated a good amount to Over/Under.

On your point about the nature of hockey being unpredictable, that makes the case for basically betting underdogs exclusively since the worst teams have legit chances to beat elite teams. If you're getting +180, you only have to be right about 36% of the time to be profitable. And since the general public likes to be on the favorite that often makes the value with the underdog.. Detroit around +200 and almost beat the Leafs for a second time in a month! Though mentally it's hard to bet on a team like Detroit, you just can't imagine them beating a high caliber team.


I think with the Kings people wrote them off as a bad team but now they seem to have some offense going lately. If it's not just a streak/momentum/fluke, it will be interesting to see how long it takes for people's perception of the Kings to change.


Last year I was hammering the Overs on Islander games until they started setting them at 6.5, marking the end of easy money..


For tomorrow, without knowing the starting goalies, I'm thinking Wild/Hawks under 6, -105 and possibly Canucks +148. Any lines catch your eye for tomorrow?

hey ..totaly agree whit what you say about underdog! detroit almost beat toronto 2 times...almost! that's kinda bad example imo since toronto and tampa are almost unbeatable this year lol !
personally, i rather spread the line in favor of the huge favorite then taking the equaly huge underdog...unless i feel it but i usually don't!
avoiding those 4-1 spot LA vs WIN seems to be more likely than picking them to me...i mean what's good for me is not necessarily good for you !

I use mainly unibet . not the best odds and some work need to be done on their hockey book but very user-friendly !

LA imo J quick is back in the front of the net lol they are over due for a low draft..team is getting old!

what catch my eye" the first line on top ..bruin vs devil , with the return of bergeron ..at home ..they are killing it vs the devils on the road ! easy money tampa philly obv
buffalo vs st louis under 5 or 6 !! hehe im looking around im just trying to avoid to pick a winning team loll if i would go crazy..Chicago is on a good streak and minnesota not at all ..that could easily go in chicago ways but again when you remember the beginning of the season minnesota was playing tight as hell and won most of the game that way ! we may see that tomorrow like you predicted ! GL

Yeah probably better off with puckline rather than bad odds on heavy favorite.. empty netter possibilities can get you there even in a close game.


I haven’t been following them specifically, not sure how good they are but looking back at Red Wings scores- they beat the Bruins twice, Leafs once, and took the Lightning to shootout.

I think the Hawks are a team that are better than ppl realize, because of the bad start that’s their 1st impression.. Under was on track that game until the wild scored late and then pulled goalie and gave up empty netter

Tonight if it’s McKenna starting and not the call up, I’ll probably go Sens +160. Anything for you? Only 3 games and only 2 have lines out right now

hey..yep puck line over under ...after all it must match the adn of the game! there so many variables!
me i had boston on top of my main parlays + ovechkin to score & wash to win ...but he didnt score lost my main pre match bet but i get it back live betting when chicago won the game!
Chicago is getting old like LA...except kane aha because of his style is gonna have a longer heathier career then lets say toews...thats kinda funny imo hes the only left with an unbroken body lollafter all the run to the cup!
tonight i spread in favor of toronto...they do their best work on the road unlike the bluejackets at home!

sometimes im not sure i want to share my tough and pick with all the greedy...you obv not one of them onthecharge

Yeah that wild/hawks total is what we call a bad beat haha, comes with the territory

Might want to hold off on that Leafs bet, considering Sparks is the likely starter tonight and not Freddy

Good call on the Leafs!

Today I have a lot- Pens -125, Rangers +205, Hawks +190, Wings +190

took the hawks,wings aswell & cal spread ,win spread ..bos buff under 6.5 safe lol GL friend

Thanks you too.. I heard Marchand could be out which should bode well for a low score I would guess

How do you go about bet sizing? Uniform or based on odds or confidence?

not there yet lol this is the part i need to work on it ! i guess odds value from my POV !
aswell as my single betting game..im losing a lot of value by not betting single sometimes ...i had a ruff luck issue in 2018 so im carefull untill that change

Yeah with only a few exceptions, the pros say basically to never parlay. I think it's especially good advice in hockey where there's so much luck and random noise involved.

Last night was good for me: I got 3 out of 4, including 2 out of 3 road dogs which paid off big.. Wings got wrecked though haha

I'm not betting tonight's game, you?

I like VGK tonight.

I think it was probably good at -130, i was leaning hoping it would come down into the -120’s, but now it’s -140 and too expensive imo

i would say imo not betting parlay your first 500 bet on sports is a must...i tested it out last year betting on correct score like boss having to deal with the empty net factor in the 3rd loll missing the goal by an inch or to not score because a defense guy make a heroic save when there no chance of winning anyways loll for 500 or 1 k loll thats sick stuff to witness loll
anyways

a lot of games tonight A lot of good bet can be made...i didnt have times to look carefully..i fly by before they drop the puck!