.
NFL picks - first 2 weeks - all underdogs ats_______it's that time____the season starts tomorrow

I surmised that the first 2 weeks would be very unpredictable and that unpredictability would favor the underdogs
I have now tracked the first 2 weeks of 11 seasons - about 350 games - and the dogs have won just over 57% for about a 9% r.o.i. (pushes not considered)
in the 11 years I tracked the faves have never had a winning year - they did tie one year which caused a slight loss due to the vig
this is related to the Wizard's tracking of thousands of games and showing all underdogs losing only a tiny % and road dogs being slightly profitable - see link
my goal was to improve on that r.o.i. with selectivity
a couple of people at another forum made $ with this last season when I first posted it

.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

.

spreads or ml?

57% dog ml wins seems unlikely and more profitable than 9%, so I'm guessing you're talking spreads.

yes, please notice "ats" (against the spread) in the first sentence of my post

.

thanks for sharing. looks like the WoZ data is last 10 or so seasons? seems the bias is more toward road teams than dogs, which makes sense if replay rules mitigated HFA more than markets priced in.

Winner, Winner - Chicken Chow Mein Dinner

carryout only - it was only a tiny win - those ever lovin' underdogs went 17-15 per my tracking on covers.com -

in the first 2 weeks I have now tracked the dogs winning 11 of 12 seasons - and the one season they didn't win was a tie


yes, smartDFS - the road dogs do better - but this tracking was just for the first 2 weeks - where I surmised the unpredictability would favor the dogs since they are getting points

I have also tracked road dogs during the rest of the season who got 4 points or less - about 300 games - and found them to win at about 57% -

trying to improve on the 2.57 % the Wizard showed for all road dogs - glta


.

.