NFL Survivor Picks - Page 98 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

I know it takes out all the strategy, my first time playing one of these but after all the cards fell it's the only one I'm still in for this season and biggest prize pool at least.

It doesn't take out all the strategy, but it does mean you shouldn't pay attention to the EV column of SurvivorGrid.

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11-19-2013 , 05:31 AM

#2427

collint

banned

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 83

thanks for the tips!!! nice job,keep going...

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11-21-2013 , 01:34 PM

#2428

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

DET seems way too popular, have no faith in HOU even vs JACKS so looking at CAR, SF, or New Orleans for this week. What teams does everyone have left at this point?

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11-21-2013 , 02:58 PM

#2429

anthai.lu

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 475

Depends, sounds like you're in a 2nd chance pool if you still have those 3 teams left?

The DET pick is skewed because those who have survived this far don't have that luxury.

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11-21-2013 , 03:09 PM

#2430

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

I'm in a reusable teams pool so anything is available, with less then 100 left from almost 2k starting.

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11-21-2013 , 06:15 PM

#2431

Sour Shoes

banned

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 78

In a pool with 107 left out of roughly 4k. It's a one and done. I'm assuming that most people will be using the Lions per online sites with the percentages. Relatively noob to this. I'm assuming it's poor Survivor strategy to follow the herd in that scenario? I have the Ravens and Packers available.

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11-21-2013 , 06:57 PM

#2432

anthai.lu

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 475

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfBets

I'm in a reusable teams pool so anything is available, with less then 100 left from almost 2k starting.

If that's the case, I would fire up NOLA

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11-21-2013 , 07:57 PM

#2433

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,309

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfBets

DET seems way too popular, have no faith in HOU even vs JACKS so looking at CAR, SF, or New Orleans for this week. What teams does everyone have left at this point?

If you can reuse teams, future value is completely irrelevant.

Pick whichever team among DET, HOU and NO is going to be the least popular. They are all roughly equally likely to win.

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11-21-2013 , 08:01 PM

#2434

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,309

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sour Shoes

Lions are going to be very popular (nobody has used them). This makes them not that great of a Survivor pick as there are comparable options just as likely to win (NO) and significantly less popular (HOU).

Green Bay seems decent, but if you've saved them this long, consider waiting a couple more weeks fir when Rodgers returns.

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11-22-2013 , 12:30 AM

#2435

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Stuck with my first instinct and went Saints, a bit of a sweat but a win...good news, got my win already can watch and root for the upsets the whole rest of weekend but bad news is almost half the pool had my same pick, the exact opposite of how I thought picks woulda been lol. However, GL all that r still in it.

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11-23-2013 , 11:38 AM

#2436

kazor

Coach PLO

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,123

I had saints also in both my pools. Will wait for upsets.

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11-24-2013 , 06:21 PM

#2437

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Houston putting in some real good work this year in Survivor Pool sabotage. Only the ones that took them vs San Diego in week 1 (needing to come behind from 21 in the 2H) have won with them

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11-24-2013 , 08:51 PM

#2438

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Next most popular picks were Detroit, Cheifs, Texans, and Carolina...3/4 were all eliminated, can't complain this week.

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11-24-2013 , 09:35 PM

#2439

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

I'm one of 4 Left in Carbon Sports Survivor Pool - Pays $15,000. 1 of them still has to survive this week having San Fran, the other 3 of us survived with Saints. My picks so far:

Lions / Texans / Broncos / Colts / Rams / 49ers / Chiefs/ Packers / Seahawks / Giants / Cardinals / Saints

Week 13 I suspect will be interesting. 4 possible picks and want to take the least popular one, though survivors so far want to do the same.

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11-25-2013 , 02:09 AM

#2440

wamplerr

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,233

Dallas and New England will be big the next two weeks and most have used them, they are probably your key teams. What have your opponents used?

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11-25-2013 , 05:02 AM

#2441

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

I won't know until Tuesday. We started with 22 this week (3 survived, 18 didn't, 1 pending) and the report just lists how many people took which team but doesn't reveal who it was that had which until the new weeks opens. Will update then

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11-28-2013 , 02:00 AM

#2442

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

Somehow there is 5 left which is odd. That Carolina pick didn't show up on the statistics page when the week was pending, but somehow it did in the standings when this new week opened. But, anyway, here is the five left (I'm second to last row *4th* on this list):

[IMG]http://s30.************/8spovsqwx/survivor.gif[/IMG]

There is a statistics section that shows pending picks for week (not who took them though). So far only 1 person has picked this week and they picked Dallas.

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11-28-2013 , 12:41 PM

#2443

BostonLawyer

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 9

I still have SF left. Any reason not to use them this week? I have Carolina as well, but everyone seems to be on them, and even though TB stinks they've won three in a row.

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11-28-2013 , 05:03 PM

#2444

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

If your pool started week 1, so you're 1 of hardly anyone with 49ers left, yeah take them this week.

For my pool I just took Dallas with one other person having done the same.

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11-28-2013 , 05:10 PM

#2445

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

Ugh now i wish I could change my pick , but not allowed in this pool. 2 others took them so there is 3 of us on Dallas. If I knew that I'd have taken Carolina and used Dallas in two weeks as the only person who had them.

I made a mistake thinking game started at 4:00 and the deadline is therefore 3:55 to use that pick. Turns out it was a 4:30 game. I had planned to take Dallas only if 1 other person did. Oh well, hopefully it works out.

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11-28-2013 , 09:06 PM

#2446

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

3.5hrs of my life I'll never get back lol what a sloppy game, Dallas lucky to get a win but then again where were the Raiders from 3rd quarter on? joke

GL tho prop, final 4 for 15k is quite the position to be in.

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11-29-2013 , 09:49 AM

#2447

BostonLawyer

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 9

Quote:

Originally Posted by PropPlayer

If you had taken Carolina, I assume you'd have ended up as one of three on them as well (though the one guy may take NE). Now you're likely to end up being the only one (or one of only two) with Carolina left when they host the Jets in two weeks.

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11-29-2013 , 06:35 PM

#2448

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Is SF a better pick just based purely on separation value? compared with CAR, NE as all 3 are within 1-2% of the same win percentage but SF is coming in at 6% popularity vs CAR 27% and NE 20%.

However, that matchup with the Rams worries me a bit last year there was a tie and generally close, physical games, also Rams have upset some decent teams in past few weeks however they're without Bradford obv this time around in this matchup. If they can stop SF's run game and it comes down to Kap having to bail them out, I don't necessarily like that much either as Kap is a lot worse this year as well as far as passing.

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11-29-2013 , 06:47 PM

#2449

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

but those Rams wins in recent weeks are mostly from running, special teams and/or turnovers galore by the other teams...which shouldn't be an issue right? SF has one of the top couple/few run defenses in NFL?

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11-29-2013 , 08:02 PM

#2450

BostonLawyer

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 9

I'm thinking the difference in popularity between SF and CAR is driven almost entirely by the fact that quite a few people (probably the majority) still have CAR available, and many fewer still have SF. I don't think it has anything to do with people thinking CAR is more likely to win than SF this weekend.

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