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10-29-2013 , 06:42 PM

#2276

NUTZ2

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,450

I doubt the Cowboys are gonna be double digit favorites against the Raiders.

Quote

10-29-2013 , 09:17 PM

#2277

h_ven

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,565

Quote:

Originally Posted by NUTZ2

I doubt the Cowboys are gonna be double digit favorites against the Raiders.

-10 -500

Quote

10-30-2013 , 12:09 AM

#2278

grando1.0

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 17,111

lol

Quote

10-30-2013 , 09:20 AM

#2279

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,317

Quote:

Originally Posted by accobra_kid

It's early, but Dallas is coming in at 59.7% popularity on Yahoo. No thanks.

Dallas is now 64% on Yahoo, 60% on OFP. That's just crazy!

Quote

10-30-2013 , 10:06 AM

#2280

splashpot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 8,203

I will be rooting hard for MIN.

Quote

10-30-2013 , 01:23 PM

#2281

NUTZ2

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,450

My pool goes to two picks a week starting week 11 with 700+ still in. I need to save as many quality teams as possible and I don't see taking the Cowboys against the Raiders down the road. Yes Panthers and Packers are just as likely to win but both are division games with teams that know each other very well.

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10-30-2013 , 02:15 PM

#2282

splashpot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 8,203

Quote:

Originally Posted by NUTZ2

Yes Panthers and Packers are just as likely to win but both are division games with teams that know each other very well.

So what?

Quote

10-30-2013 , 02:56 PM

#2283

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,317

Quote:

Originally Posted by NUTZ2

splashpot is correct when he says to ignore the division aspect of these matchups. It, and a million other aspects of the game, are all included in the moneyline.

Double picks in week 11+ changes things a lot, especially in a pool that size. I hope you've been picking less popular teams through the first 8 weeks knowing this was coming. Saving SEA/CIN for week 11, GB for week 12 and DAL for week 13 should be on your radar when deciding on this week's choice. Have you used Carolina or New England yet?

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10-30-2013 , 03:13 PM

#2284

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 52,629

Quote:

Originally Posted by NUTZ2

Yes Panthers and Packers are just as likely to win but both are division games with teams that know each other very well.

So are you saying they are or aren't as likely to win.
I don't understand the effect the second half of your sentence has on the first.

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10-30-2013 , 05:32 PM

#2285

Henry_Sugar

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 628

I think GB is the best pick this week. Doesn't seem like a lot of folks have them to use anymore and they're over -500 on the ML. Don't see them losing at home on Monday night vs Chi without Cutler.

I'm probably gonna have to play Seattle this week. Don't see how I can hang on to them since I already used GB, CAR, and NE. And I'm the only one in my pool who still has Seattle available. Probably shoulda taken more chances early on.

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10-30-2013 , 05:40 PM

#2286

NUTZ2

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,450

Quote:

Originally Posted by accobra_kid

I have Packers, Panthers, Patriots, 49ers, Bengeles, and Seahawks left.

Quote

10-30-2013 , 05:41 PM

#2287

NUTZ2

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,450

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

So are you saying they are or aren't as likely to win.
I don't understand the effect the second half of your sentence has on the first.

Obv that an upset is more likely to take place between divison rivals then non division matchups.

Quote

10-30-2013 , 05:49 PM

#2288

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,317

Quote:

Originally Posted by NUTZ2

Obv that an upset is more likely to take place between divison rivals then non division matchups.

Do you have any data to back up this claim?

Pinnacle currently has:
Green Bay -500 vs. Chicago
Dallas -500 vs. Minnesota

Who is more likely to win this week, Green Bay or Dallas? I think they are equally likely to win.

Quote

10-30-2013 , 06:34 PM

#2289

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 52,629

Quote:

Originally Posted by NUTZ2

Obv that an upset is more likely to take place between divison rivals then non division matchups.

Guess vegas is dumb for giving the same odds if one is more likely than the other.

Quote

10-30-2013 , 06:42 PM

#2290

NUTZ2

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,450

I'll get you some data when I get home but to assume Vegas is perfectly efficient is ridiculous. For example I'm 100% sure blindly betting home dogs in division games is profitable.

Quote

10-30-2013 , 06:47 PM

#2291

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by NUTZ2

I'll get you some data when I get home but to assume Vegas is perfectly efficient is ridiculous. For example I'm 100% sure blindly betting home dogs in division games is profitable.

You must have one of these:

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10-30-2013 , 06:49 PM

#2292

h_ven

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,565

like I said, so many pro handicappers in this thread, ha ha

Quote

10-30-2013 , 09:34 PM

#2293

NUTZ2

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,450

Relax guys my post was supposed to read ' blindly betting home dogs of 10+ in division games is profitable.' 17-11 since 03

Anyway back to what I was saying about division games, I have away division dogs going 303-258-20 ATS and 191-389-1 SU or upsetting 33% of the time. Compare that with non division away dogs they're 532-542-20 ATS and 340-754 SU or upsetting 31% of the time.

However for division away dogs getting 10+ the SU record is pretty abysmal going 13-96-1 or only winning 12% of the time, pretty similar to non divisional games which went 19-148 SU or just about 11.5%.

Quote

10-30-2013 , 09:39 PM

#2294

h_ven

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,565

I guess I'm going with Dallas on all 3 of my pools... Still saving Seattle, lolz. Next 4 or 5 weeks will be interesting

Quote

10-30-2013 , 09:40 PM

#2295

anthai.lu

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 475

Freeman starting for MIN...DAL looks even better now.

Quote

10-30-2013 , 10:14 PM

#2296

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,317

Quote:

Originally Posted by anthai.lu

Freeman starting for MIN...DAL looks even better now.

Moneyline jumped all the way up from -500 to -525, Cowboys are now 0.7% more likely to win. Vegas must really think Josh Freeman is bad!

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10-31-2013 , 09:44 AM

#2297

mulebennett

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,886

Frazier said he's not announcing QB starter until tomorrow...

Quote

10-31-2013 , 08:14 PM

#2298

kazor

Coach PLO

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,123

Deciding between Carolina and Dallas.

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10-31-2013 , 08:16 PM

#2299

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,317

How popular is Dallas going to be in your pool?

Quote

10-31-2013 , 08:53 PM

#2300

kazor

Coach PLO

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,123

Quote:

Originally Posted by accobra_kid

How popular is Dallas going to be in your pool?

Very popular. Much more so then Carolina mostly due to the fact that most people already used Carolina. Dallas is also the bigger favorite.

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