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Old 11-19-2009, 03:39 PM   #201
DGDolly
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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That's why I'm now leaning toward Jacksonville. Cincinnati has more future value than any team on the board.
I picked the Bengals, but now I'm regretting it for this exact reason. Jacksonville all the way.
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Old 11-19-2009, 07:33 PM   #202
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

JAX is a good valuepick, but dangerous of course. only one other person left in my pool so I'm trying to max my EV every week versus him.

11: PIT @ KC
12: ATL v TB or CIN v CLE
13: CIN v DET or IND v TEN
14: BAL v DET
15: DEN v OAK
16: ARI v STL
17: IND @ BUF (or something else depending on which teams are still trying)

with regards to valuepicking and saving, i think the theory behind it is that you give up a small amount of EV this current week in order to have a large advantage later. so make sure the teams you are 'saving' have super cupcake matchups in the future. in my bracket, since it's down to me and another person, i'm trying to pick the highest EV game each week, and hope for the best.
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Old 11-19-2009, 07:53 PM   #203
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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with regards to valuepicking and saving, i think the theory behind it is that you give up a small amount of EV this current week in order to have a large advantage later. so make sure the teams you are 'saving' have super cupcake matchups in the future. in my bracket, since it's down to me and another person, i'm trying to pick the highest EV game each week, and hope for the best.
yeah with 85 left in our megapool, I want/need to survive until playoffs, where we are betting vs. the spread, and hope there's only a few left
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Old 11-22-2009, 03:18 PM   #204
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I went with the obvious MIN pick this week... I was one of only a very few to still have the Vikings available. Looking good so far, with a number of the other popular picks still in close matchups.
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Old 11-22-2009, 05:17 PM   #205
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Switched from JAX to PIT. FML.
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Old 11-22-2009, 05:40 PM   #206
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

whewwwwwwww...Dallas had me sweating but still alive
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Old 11-22-2009, 06:52 PM   #207
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I don't care if being on the road is factored in the line or not. I'll never pick another road team, ever.
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Old 11-22-2009, 08:24 PM   #208
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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whewwwwwwww...JAX had me sweating but still alive
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Old 11-22-2009, 11:25 PM   #209
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Still alive in a couple of big pools with Dallas here fellas. I bowed out in a smaller pool with Pitt. Damn those Chiefs.

For Week 12, I am looking at Atlanta and Cincy since I don't have Dallas and San Diego anymore.

Green Bay may be worth a second look.
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Old 11-23-2009, 12:05 AM   #210
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

FFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU Pittsburgh! I was the only person with two people left in my league, oh well still got one team left. I'm going to be screwed in week 14 though, I've used all of the good matchups :\
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Old 11-23-2009, 12:12 AM   #211
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

64 left without a loss (21 got a strike this week)


my road to the playoffs:

DAL
CIN
NE
ARI
NO
SD

then against the spread in playoff games.
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Old 11-23-2009, 01:07 AM   #212
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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64 left without a loss (21 got a strike this week)
Same here, about 1/4 of my pools were on CIN or PIT. Would have been a real bloodbath if the Bills and Redskins held on.


Lots of choices again for week 12
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Old 11-23-2009, 02:16 PM   #213
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Looks like most people will be on CIN and DAL.

I had saved PIT for week 13, hosting OAK, which doesn't look nearly as good after this week's events. Feels like I should save CIN for week 13 or 16. CAR hosting TB scary but also playable in week 13.

I'm between ATL and SD for week 12. Thoughts?
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Old 11-24-2009, 12:55 AM   #214
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

With Stafford unlikely to play the Thanksgiving game, I will look at Green Bay. It doesn't help that both Kampman and Harris are out for the season but I think the Pack will put in a good effort to keep their playoff hope alive.

Will have to see what line the books throw out.

San Diego is also another good choice this week.
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Old 11-24-2009, 02:17 AM   #215
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I've used DAL, MIN, GB and SD already. I originally went with the Bengals for this week but switched to the Falcons, because I'll plan on using Cincinnati in Week 13 when they host the Lions.
Don't think there will be many eliminations this week, barring huge upsets.
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Old 11-24-2009, 03:16 AM   #216
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

hoping Warner is OK for week 15 @ the lions, and hoping that NO isn't resting their starters week 16 at home vs. TB.

plus obv hoping for no suckouts.
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Old 11-24-2009, 01:16 PM   #217
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Looking at Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay this week most likely

13: Cin vs Det
14: Pit @ Cle
15: Ari @ Det (pending Warner)

Kinda miffed I haven't used the Colts yet and don't really see a good spot down the line.....everyone else in the AFC has 3 losses and Colts pretty notorious for shutting it down when they have things locked up. Ah well
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Old 11-27-2009, 10:53 AM   #218
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

_Survivor 1Survivor 2
1NONE
2MinnMinn
3PHIBLT
4IndyHST
5NYGPHI
6GBPIT
7NEIndy
8CHISD
9ATLNO
10BLTARI
11JaxCin
12Cin 

Went against the theorem with Dal available so it serves me right.
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Old 11-27-2009, 12:51 PM   #219
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I was the only one to use Dallas in my one league that has 10 people left.

There are 3 left in my other league, 2 of us are on Cincy and 1 was on GB, who won. Grr.
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Old 11-27-2009, 09:22 PM   #220
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I am still alive in 3 paid pools and will be on Cincy in 2 of them and San Diego in the other.
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Old 11-29-2009, 12:42 PM   #221
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I've used MIN, SD and DAL already, so the Falcons are the pick for me this week.
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Old 11-29-2009, 04:31 PM   #222
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Matt Ryan going down isn't helping that prospect any.
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Old 11-29-2009, 05:26 PM   #223
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Looking at Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay this week most likely

13: Cin vs Det
whewwww....sweating the Gamecast online. 4th down and Chris Redman comes through. The kid has got some heart.
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Old 11-29-2009, 05:27 PM   #224
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Talk about going down to the wire! TBay put in a good fight but Atlanta prevailed!

For Week 13 I am looking at Cincy hosting Detroit. San Diego may worth a second look.
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Old 11-29-2009, 06:35 PM   #225
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Son of a *****, Tampa Bay would have knocked out 30% of my pool. Looking at Pittsburgh next week. Already used Cincy.
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