2 pools left. 35 left in 1. 2,300ish in the other. Taking Miami in both

I'm going Miami.

Few interesting choices this week. Green Bay has some injuries so might go with the Chargers.

Atlanta, Miami or Green Bay???? Green Bay has a handful of injuries and Atlanta has a few beat up guys that are playing but not 100% effectively. I guess this leams towards Miami? If I cam fade tampa with Atlanta at home I think it would be my best pick as most in my pool will be on Miami or GB. Falcons just scare me this year

is no one even considering KC with how much of a mess HOU is or has everyone already used them up? Also good separation pick and only a couple other spots to use them the rest of the season from the looks of it.

They'd be my top pick if I hadn't used them this past Sunday vs Oakland.

Really difficult week for me since I've used GB and KC already.

oic, GL then...geuss ur stuck on MIA, ATL, or SD?

Being "stuck" with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most likely teams to win isn't so bad.

TY glgl. Yeah gonna have to be one of those three, considering Carolina too but enamored with any of these choices.

The Giants are the pick

Can't see away they lose that game

228 left in my pool. I have two entries and leaning towards Atl, Mia and SD also. I generally stay away from road teams if I can in survivor pools but something makes me nervous about Mia - Buf. Mia leads the league in sacks allowed and Buf is 3rd in the league in sacks. And having followed Thaddeus Lewis while he was at Duke reminds me that he is very smart and a decent QB. The read option gave Cincy trouble last week. Buf not great on the road though.

Current picks for the pool at this moment (can always change but usually pretty accurate):

GB 46
Mia 28
SD 21
Atl 20
KC 10
Stragglers the rest of the way.

Options for my two picks...thoughts?

Atl / Atl
Atl / Mia
Atl / SD

I think you should wait until Sunday at noon to decide on your picks. By then, you'll have a better idea of how popular each team is, and you'll know the most up-to-date win probabilities for each of those games.

As it stands right now, you're right to avoid Green Bay as they are too popular and have too much future value. Picking Atlanta twice completely nullifies the diversification value of having multiple entries.

It's week 7...stop saving picks for "future value". And considering how many weak options there are...GB seems like the most likely to win if you still have them.

GB
KC
MIA
ATL - Can they move the ball effectively?
SD - Away team traveling to the east coast after a big MNF win? Seems like a trap game to me...
CAR - Think they handle the Rams at home...

I really can't imagine a scenario where San Diego is my best option. Traveling across country on a short week playing a Jaguars squad hungry for their first win and Blackmon on a roll.

GB - banged up, don't trust their D
KC - used already
ATL - Jackson out, Jones out, LBs out?, OTs out? White hasn't practiced? I don't think so.

SD - agree with the above
CAR - a game between 2 teams that each surprised with a big win last week. Wouldn't touch it.

Miami is the pick.

I agree with you to a certain extent on future value, but separation is still very important. 40% of people are on GB and another 20-30% are on SD. I'm going MIA.

Gotta move on first...

People seem to have a lot of confidence in a division game with a team who has lost 2 in a row and give up the most sacks in the NFL.

As Taipan mentioned, Buffalo defense is 3rd in the NFL in sacks and Tannehill can't hang onto the ball.

I agree with separation but only if there are other "easy games".

People also seem to think they can handicap these games better than the Vegas moneyline... News flash, you probably can't. Yea, GB has the highest moneyline but I've done the math using the Vegas moneylines and the public info on pick distributions to account for separation and it says MIA is a better pick than GB.

Don't get carried away with the Bills defense they're averaging 3.5 sacks a game and Miami is at 2.5 not a huge difference. Miami at home off a bye playing against a team that underperforms on the road, that's also starting a rookie qb. I hate taking division games but I'm leaning Miami now. Of course I'll check the lines on Sunday to see if it comes off the 7 in which case I'll probably go Packers.

Wtf Chicago San Fran ?

There's 5 ppl left!

that have used good team mostly already ?GB been used by them?

Ur nit picking
They're clearly pretty equal favorites

I love this thread. Im going to join as many survivor pools as I can next year.

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anyone on CAR this wk? have the Rams really stepped up past couple wks or was HOU really that bad? Also not sure why they went up on my survivor grid for win % and EV, some new injuries I'm not aware of or what's the deal?

Carolina is way too schizophrenic and there are better picks this week.

Not really, it's a lot closer than you think. Win probabilities above are based on Pinnacle moneylines:

Green Bay 80%
Miami 76%
Carolina 74%
Atlanta 73%
Kansas City 72%

Popularity based on average of OFP and Yahoo:

Green Bay 42%
Miami 12%
Carolina 1%
Atlanta 7%
Kansas City 7%

Future value:

Green Bay = Tons, home to PHI/MIN/ATL/PIT, @MIN/@NYG.
Miami = None other than @TB
Carolina = Home to TB and NYJ.
Atlanta = Home to WAS.
Kansas City = Home to CLE/SD, @BUF/@OAK.

If you take Green Bay this week, yes, you're getting the team most likely to win. But you're also burning a team with a lot of future value (probably most behind Seattle/Denver), and you're taking a team selected by 40% of other people.

You can find much better picks by sacrificing just a little bit of win probability. For instance, Miami has no future value, is picked by only 12% of people, and is only 4% less likely to win than the Packers.

Carolina, Atlanta and Kansas City are all comparable on win probability, but the Falcons/Chiefs are way more popular. KC does have several other good spots where you can use them.

Carolina > Atlanta = Miami > Kansas City > Green Bay