NFL Survivor Picks - Page 83 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

2nd yr in a row I'm getting eliminated with CIN when they under perform wtfff waste of my time to even watch that sht game, INDY upset would of knocked out 40% of my pool too lol sux.

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09-29-2013 , 04:18 PM

#2054

rakeme

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 6,715

Suck a bag of dicks cinci.

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09-29-2013 , 05:03 PM

#2055

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

amen to that, what a pathetic showing for dalton and especially their running game.

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09-29-2013 , 11:44 PM

#2056

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,679

Quote:

Originally Posted by rakeme

No, I'm saying pick the game each week that you think is the closest thing to a lock. I agree with you, don't save teams for later

Quote:

Originally Posted by rakeme

Suck a bag of dicks cinci.

U took cincy? You already took indy and den this year?

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09-30-2013 , 10:07 AM

#2057

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,679

For those that took Cincy, Bal or some other team that lost, join a week 5 pool:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40...-25-a-1374254/

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09-30-2013 , 11:25 PM

#2058

canabiz

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 228

Well that's that for Week 4. I took New Orleans across the board and was sweating buckets until Tannehill threw the pick which was the game changer, IMO.

May have to plug my nose and take the Rams next week. They could be the most popular choice. I wonder if Chad Henne will start instead of Blaine Gabbert?

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10-01-2013 , 02:01 AM

#2059

2J4U

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,555

Carolina or Atlanta this week

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10-01-2013 , 07:11 AM

#2060

canabiz

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 228

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2J4U

Carolina or Atlanta this week

I'd rather be on the Rams than Panthers this weekend but that's just me.

Agree with you Falcons will be another popular pick.

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10-01-2013 , 07:13 AM

#2061

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,309

I'm not sure what reason there is to even consider the Panthers when there's going to be at least 9 teams who are more likely to win then they are this week.

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10-01-2013 , 08:58 AM

#2062

mulebennett

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,886

Here's the eight most popular teams according to Yahoo's pick distribution for Week 5:

Atlanta vs NYJ, 40%
St. Louis vs JAX, 35%
San Diego vs OAK, 7.5%
Denver vs Dallas, 5%
Green Bay vs Detroit, 3%
Kansas City vs Tennessee, 2%
New England vs Cincy, 1%
San Francisco vs Houston, 1%

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10-01-2013 , 01:57 PM

#2063

splashpot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 8,203

Quote:

Originally Posted by mulebennett

Considering STL has the highest moneyline, I guess that suggests STL is a better pick than ATL.

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10-02-2013 , 12:34 AM

#2064

cbayly12

banned

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 884

If anyone is looking for a Second Chance Pool.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh....php?t=1376649

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10-02-2013 , 07:54 AM

#2065

wamplerr

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,233

Quote:

Originally Posted by splashpot

Considering STL has the highest moneyline, I guess that suggests STL is a better pick than ATL.

And better future value on Atlanta. All signs point to avoiding ATL this week.

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10-02-2013 , 11:01 AM

#2066

DMMx69

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,680

ATL pick makes no sense to me as the ML is similar to STL, but STL has far less future value.

But, thoughts on avoiding STL in a pool with a few hundred remaining? Is it worth taking the ~83% winner if nearly half of the pool is also on them? If I don't go with that I would likely take GB at ~75% to win, far fewer entrants on them, and limited future value (as compared to other 67%+ faves; aka: DEN, SF, SD.)

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10-02-2013 , 11:17 AM

#2067

mulebennett

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,886

The justification for taking Atlanta is that the Falcons are a good team, and risking your survivor life on a 1-3 Rams team is iffy, even though they play one of (if not the) worst teams in NFL history.

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10-02-2013 , 01:19 PM

#2068

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,229

Quote:

Originally Posted by mulebennett

Well, Atlanta's also 1-3, but sure, I agree, they're a better team that should be extra motivated to not go 1-4. As to future value, except maybe for week 7, I don't see it. They're not the kind of team I want to take when on the road.

So they're my pick to not crap out on national TV two weeks in a row.

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10-02-2013 , 01:22 PM

#2069

wamplerr

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,233

Week 7 hosting TB after a Bye is where Atlanta will be useful.

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10-02-2013 , 06:38 PM

#2070

canabiz

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 228

Rams may not win another game until Week 16 when they host TB

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10-02-2013 , 08:03 PM

#2071

DisGunBGud

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 23,708

I'm the only one left who used ATL week 2 against the Rams. I feel like I have to go St Louis and pray they all ride the Falcons, scared of picking a crap Rams team even against a crappier Jax team. Could use Denver @ Dallas too. Only a few left who have them stashed.

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10-02-2013 , 10:16 PM

#2072

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,309

St. Louis is only 82% to win, Atlanta is only 80% to win. You're not sacrificing a lot of win probability to drop down to the next tier and pick Green Bay, or even Denver (although they're inferior to Green Bay because they have a lot more future value, especially immediately).

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10-03-2013 , 04:05 PM

#2073

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

anyone considering SD? Rivers has been top afc player of the wk past 2 wks, amazing performances, mcfadden is likely out for Raiders and SD used to have longest running nfl streak of one team beating another in a row with OAK. Pryor is back tho and Freeney, Floyd are out for SD...

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10-03-2013 , 04:36 PM

#2074

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

and/or anyone riding the #3 clev defense and the hoyer train tonight vs banged up bills and rookie EJ? Both these would be huge separation picks as well but clev seems more risky then need be for this early in the season...thoughts?