NFL Survivor Picks - Page 78 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Wow, Houston had no business winning that game but I'll take it. Bullock sure didn't help them all game...what a bum.

A LOT of close games the past 2 weeks...

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09-16-2013 , 10:10 AM

#1928

MacGuyV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 22,298

Quote:

Originally Posted by TradeOC

Bears BABY!

Still alive!

I can't decide if that was running good or running bad that it was that close (kickoff return, lolCutler fumble)...
Oh well fading the Vikings for 2weeks was fun.
Not many chances to get cute next week; think I'll just go with Denver.

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09-16-2013 , 01:44 PM

#1929

Cornboy

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 2,421

Might want to stay away from Denver in Week 3 - Week 4 is going to be a bear, there's a lot of even games. Denver at home against Philadelphia might be one of the better picks. PHI does get 3 extra days to prepare.

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09-16-2013 , 01:50 PM

#1930

beansroast01

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 20,494

next 2 weeks seem pretty straightforward, Seattle then Denver. Probably will take NE as W3 backup and NO and maybe Indy W4

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09-16-2013 , 02:06 PM

#1931

anthai.lu

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 475

Seattle should be a popular pick in week 3...they should destroy the Jags at home. Line opened up at -17.5 lol

Some others:

1) JAX @ SEA
2) OAK @ DEN
3) IND @ SF
4) ARZ @ NO

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09-16-2013 , 03:25 PM

#1932

rakeme

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Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 6,715

I'm definitely going with Seattle. Line is at 19.5 now. Denver would be my other choice if you don't have Seattle left.

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09-16-2013 , 04:12 PM

#1933

CSFurious

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 666

SEA locked

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09-16-2013 , 05:17 PM

#1934

MacGuyV

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Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 22,298

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cornboy

Holy crap you're right.

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09-16-2013 , 06:41 PM

#1935

nevowski69

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 51

Still in it and have only used Chiefs and Raiders. Locking in the Seahawks tonight.

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09-16-2013 , 11:23 PM

#1936

Inland_Taipan

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 563

Any thoughts on strategy in a rebuy type pool with 250 still left? Rebuy allowed 3x up til week 6. Can only take a team once in regular season - teams reset once playoffs start. Pool usually runs well into playoffs. Double picks required in weeks 3, 6 & 10. Relatively low cost pool @ $25 but not wanting to take all crappy teams just knowing I can rebuy. Have 4 entries in pool.

1. Take best possibles with all 4 entries and advance to next week (Sea & Denver)?
2. Mix it up and take different teams with each entry?
3. Take risky but mediocre teams knowing you can just by back if needed but will have saved better teams buy going this route?

Thanks in advance...

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09-17-2013 , 10:19 AM

#1937

mulebennett

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,886

Probably a mix of options 2 and 3. Would split picks and do a few less popular teams without a ton of future value (maybe New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, New England, or something like that). But I definitely would avoid Seattle and Denver this week. Both teams have a ton of future value.

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09-17-2013 , 10:37 AM

#1938

Kurn, son of Mogh

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,237

Regarding Seattle and Denver.

I still have 102 people to outlast in my pool. Since Seattle is virtually unbeatable at home against playoff caliber teams, why on earth would I waste my pick on them against a cupcake this week when 2/3 to 3/4 of my opposition will take them this week.

Denver, another tough place for road teams, is another pick I'd like to save.

My gut tells me my best chance to win my pool is to be able to pick these two teams later in the year when my opposition can't.

Leaning strongly towards the Vikings this week vs the always under-performing Browns.

Of course there is also the chance I'm over-thinking and could be eliminated.

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09-17-2013 , 12:12 PM

#1939

MacGuyV

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Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 22,298

LolVikings. I've decided the 49ers are the expert play.

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09-17-2013 , 01:54 PM

#1940

Kurn, son of Mogh

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by MacGuyV

LolVikings. I've decided the 49ers are the expert play.

Yeah, I went back and looked in more depth and realized that no matter how inept the Browns look, why on earth would I want my survival to depend in any way on Ponder.

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09-17-2013 , 07:18 PM

#1941

JerseyPoker869

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 179

Vikings are a pretty good pick IMO. Especially when you look at their schedule, unload them now

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09-17-2013 , 11:10 PM

#1942

MacGuyV

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Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 22,298

I'd rather keep them in the barrel all season since they stink.

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09-18-2013 , 12:37 AM

#1943

Zathras

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 416

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh

I like all these thoughts..

I've survived 2 weeks with teams that are a combined 26 point underdogs in week 3. (Indy/Oak)
So that's gotta be a good thing.

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09-18-2013 , 12:58 AM

#1944

NUTZ2

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,450

Your only gonna see Seattle as a 10+ home favorite three more times this season. Weeks 9 against Tennessee, 16 &17 against Cards and Rams. You don't wanna take them that late in the season cause they may just rest their starters. So I guess you can save them for week 9 but taking them here is def the +ev move. I have about 3k people left in my pool and two entries so I'll be using Seattle and Saints this week.

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09-18-2013 , 03:43 AM

#1945

camz2895

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Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 7,272

Love my Saints but not sure why anyone is high on them this week. Offense still isn't clicking. Only put up 16 pts vs TB'd defense on the road. ARZ has good defense. Not sure Saints can cover Fitz...iffy game imo

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09-18-2013 , 08:51 AM

#1946

mulebennett

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,886

Quote:

Originally Posted by NUTZ2

Maybe I'm slow but I don't know how picking a team that 65%+ of the pool is on is +EV.

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09-18-2013 , 08:59 AM

#1947

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,310

It boggles my mind how almost everyone in this thread is completely ignoring how popular a pick Seattle is this week. If you have designs on winning a large pool (100+ entrants), teams picked by 40%+ of entrants like Seattle this week are unpickable.

1) win probability
2) popularity
3) future value

Most of you are only considering 1) and 3).

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09-18-2013 , 09:17 AM

#1948

mulebennett

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,886

Quote:

Originally Posted by accobra_kid

And the people hyping Seattle aren't really even considering 3.

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09-18-2013 , 09:27 AM

#1949

DMMx69

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,680

Quote:

Originally Posted by camz2895

The scoreboard in the TB game was highly misleading. They were in the RedZone 4 times and never got a TD. They had 1st and goal 2 or 3 times and never scored a TD.

Not arguing whether their offense is "clicking" or not, but moreso than that, they were simply unlucky. Even the worst offensive teams average more Redzone/Goal-to-Go points than NO did in Week 2.

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09-18-2013 , 09:41 AM

#1950

nevowski69

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 51

Quote:

Originally Posted by NUTZ2

/\/\/\ This right here. It's hard to ignore one of the largest point spreads in NFL history. Plus, weeks 4 and 5 look brutal in terms of picking, and Seattle plays Houston and at Indianapolis, so no easy picks there. I could see using Seattle in weeks 6,9,11, but barring any major injuries/changes, I have teams picked for those weeks. I took my chance weeks 1 and 2 with KC and the Raiders, I'll coast this week.

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