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Old 10-31-2009, 09:06 AM   #151
mulebennett
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

None of the 11 remaining in my one pool picked Chicago. I did at first but changed like a poosy.
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Old 10-31-2009, 02:24 PM   #152
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by mulebennett View Post
Question for the strategists around here. I'm in two pools, one is down to 11 and the other 26, so they aren't massive, and they are one-strike-and-you're-out.

With that said, I've made it this far taking the same team in both pools. At some point should I diversify my picks? If so, should I have been doing that from the start?
Is winning both pools twice as good as winning one? Is there money/pride for places other than first? If so, do you care what place you get if you don't win?

Picking the best team for both leagues has the highest EV, but if your objective is to make sure you win at least one league, or get a certain place, it might be better to diversify.
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Old 11-01-2009, 04:24 PM   #153
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

The distribution of picks in my league this week was about:

SD 50%
CHI 25%
ARZ 8%
IND 7%
DAL 6%
NO 3%

So far, the Bears and Cowboys look to go through quite easily. IND is in a dogfight, while the Cards, Chargers (my pick this week) and Saints have yet to kick off. Go 49ers!
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Old 11-01-2009, 07:39 PM   #154
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

NO vs. CAR or ATL vs. WAS? I don't have GB @ TB, and picking bad teams over worse teams scares me (SEA vs. DET and SF vs. TEN). I guess IND vs. HOU maybe, but I don't like it to be honest.

I kind of want to save ATL for week 12 vs. TB.
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Old 11-01-2009, 08:00 PM   #155
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Glad to have SD out of the way, they are absolutely not to be trusted.
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Old 11-01-2009, 09:35 PM   #156
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Moving on here as well folks. Arizona and Detroit cleaned up a few stragglers but not much. A Falcons win tomorrow night is certainly welcoming. Every little bit helps at this stage of the game.

For Week 9, I am looking at Altanta vs. Washington (more so if the Falcons loses tomorrow night) and Seattle vs. Detroit (especially if Calvin Johnson doesn't play)

2 more candidates for Week 9 are Jacksonville (Larry Johnson is suspended?) and San Fran. Certainly need to look more into these games.
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Old 11-02-2009, 01:07 AM   #157
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Glad to have SD out of the way, they are absolutely not to be trusted.
I was a little skeptical of the the huge spread and ML on San Diego but I picked em anyway.

Next week will be tough for those who have already picked GB.
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Old 11-02-2009, 09:50 AM   #158
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Next week will be tough for those who have already picked GB.
I disagree. Green Bay @ Tampa Bay is a solid choice, but there are a ton of great home options to choose from this week.

SF, IND, SEA, ATL, JAX, and even CHI (in some order) are good bets to win on home turf. Take your pick.
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Old 11-02-2009, 01:01 PM   #159
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Not to mention NO, for everyone who didn't take them in week 1.
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Old 11-03-2009, 07:31 AM   #160
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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I disagree. Green Bay @ Tampa Bay is a solid choice, but there are a ton of great home options to choose from this week.

SF, IND, SEA, ATL, JAX, and even CHI (in some order) are good bets to win on home turf. Take your pick.
Agreed.

Moneyline-wise, Pinny thinks Seattle and New England have better chances of winning than Green Bay, with quite a few games yet to have a line.

I don't know if a lot of folks still have New England though. I hope Calvin Johnson is not playing. This is also the Seahawks' best chance to win another game, save for when they host Tampa further down the road.
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Old 11-03-2009, 09:08 AM   #161
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Top lines right now:

Carolina @ New Orleans -14 (up to -15 at Planet Hollywood)
Miami @ New England -10.5
Washington @ Atlanta -10
Detroit @ Seattle -10
Green Bay -9.5 @ Tampa Bay

Honestly, that Seattle game looks really tempting. I've already used up GB and NE, and NO and Atl both have games that will be just as good down the road (both are still to host Tampa Bay).
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Old 11-03-2009, 10:02 AM   #162
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Agreed.

Moneyline-wise, Pinny thinks Seattle and New England have better chances of winning than Green Bay, with quite a few games yet to have a line.

I don't know if a lot of folks still have New England though. I hope Calvin Johnson is not playing. This is also the Seahawks' best chance to win another game, save for when they host Tampa further down the road.
NO and NE are good picks if you still have them, but I think most people have used one or both of those by now. I'm not touching Seattle. As bad as Detroit is, picking a team that has 2 rushing TDs all season just doesn't sit well with me.
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Old 11-03-2009, 01:49 PM   #163
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

If I had more people in my pool I would probably gamble with Seattle, but with only 4 left I'm going with New Orleans.

9: NO v CAR
10: MIN v DET
11: PIT @ KC
12: ATL v TB
13: DEN @ KC
14: BAL v DET

should all be huge favs and my pool will likely be done by then.
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Old 11-05-2009, 02:51 PM   #164
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

The more I think about it, the more I think Seattle is a total stay-away. With no Tatupu and with Megatron probable for Sunday's game, I think it's just too much of a gamble.
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Old 11-05-2009, 03:13 PM   #165
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Megatron is a game time decision.
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Old 11-05-2009, 04:14 PM   #166
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Lions will get trucked @ Seattle. The Seahawks seem to play decent at home and the LOLions are beyond bad on the road. I really wanna save ATL for week 11 at home against TB. Gonna roll the dice with Seattle this week.
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Old 11-05-2009, 05:31 PM   #167
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Great work so far. Hey, just thought of a great use for tables:

_Survivor 1Survivor 2
1NONE
2MinnMinn
3PHIBLT
4IndyHST
5NYGPHI
6GBPIT
7NEIndy
8CHISD
9  

Filling 2 with NO. Was going ATL on 1, but may consider switch to Sea with that Week 11 tip.
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Old 11-05-2009, 06:09 PM   #168
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Nah. Just sticking with NO Atl


dontgettrickydontgettrickydontgettricky...
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Old 11-05-2009, 10:12 PM   #169
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Ranked in order of biggest moneyline this week. Take your picks

New Orleans -700

New England -580

Seattle -545

Atlanta -500

Green Bay -480

Indianapolis -390
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Old 11-05-2009, 10:44 PM   #170
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

what are a few good picks this week?

edit:sry wrong forum
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Old 11-07-2009, 02:41 AM   #171
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm really liking seattle this week and taking them with all 3 of my picks (2 in a big money pool, 1 in a normal pool)

*there's still lots of people left in these pools
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Old 11-08-2009, 08:29 PM   #172
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Goddamn Lions made me sweat out a bit early on.

Packers loss cleaned up a few stragglers.

On to Week 10 where I will most likely be on Nawleans. May give Miami a second look, depending on the line.
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Old 11-08-2009, 08:36 PM   #173
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Lions will get trucked @ Seattle. The Seahawks seem to play decent at home and the LOLions are beyond bad on the road. I really wanna save ATL for week 11 at home against TB. Gonna roll the dice with Seattle this week.
yeah this was definately a sweat there at the end. Had Seattle in all 3 of my leagues. Luckily Stafford came through with his 5th pick of the game. LOLions
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Old 11-09-2009, 01:08 AM   #174
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Just realized I still have Minny in a couple of Pools. I will possibly split my picks between Minny and Nawleans and see how it goes.

On paper, Tampa should be no match for Miami but I don't know much about this kid Josh Freeman.

All of the Pools I am in now have less than 1/4 of the participants. Next couple of weeks can really whittle things down.
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Old 11-09-2009, 02:14 AM   #175
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Sighhh F GB

I hate the packers to begin with and now I just get some more incentive to hate on them. I had ATL but then on Friday I decided to move on to GB instead.
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