7 left in my pool of 70 and has been that way since about Week 7. Have been able to avoid the majority pick every week by my separation earlier in the season however seems like this is going to be a tough week.

Already used Cincy so is going with Denver, which most likely 5 of the 7 will pick, smart or try to gamble with a random third? If thats the case what would be a solid option? Possibly PITT if Ben is back even though it is on the road which i have tried to avoid?

maybe Indy vs Buf?

Yea i was thinking possibly this since they are home. You would feel safer with them, then Pitt on the road if Big Ben is back? If he plays what is the estimated line? Somewhere in the -4 region?

Oh I see what you mean now, wamplerr, that's definitely fishy and I will have to go back and check.

JN1D, it may not be such a bad idea to ride the Broncos and move on to next week. All the other games outside of Cincy is iffy.

Jax blew their load in Houston and Tenny is coming off a bye so the Titans could be worth a look.

what's the overall record of teams coming off byes in last say 5 years?

like how big of an increase in win % is it really?

Thanks. Yea normally i would prob go this route, but Denver just seems like it has so much future value if im able not to use them. Its likely no one will have them left (2 of the 7 used them this past week) so really dont want to take them unless i have to, though i do agree with your point and very well might be the best and safest option.

Thought about the titans also, but rather not go with a road team if i could help it, especially when its not a team you feel like you can count on.

Wondering what you guys think of going with Denver this week. 121 now left in our pool and 90 or so still have Denver left. With this weeks tough schedule and very few having New England or Houston left I can envision at least 70 using Denver.

Here is my question. Should I go with a riskier team like say Dallas or Tennessee and hope for a Denver loss? Or is it just wise to stick with the better option and go with the masses and take Denver?

By the way, I have the rest of the schedule set up fairly nicely so I don't really need to save Denver.

I feel you, had 7 of 13 in my pool on Dallas and was watching that game...after these same punks getting lucky and barely surviving with NE in previous weeks too on top of how the Browns blew this game lol Only had 2 eliminations in the past 4-5 wks in my pool, Brutal!
But then again I barely survived with a Houston pick myself this week

in my main pool...54 left. Teams reset once playoffs hit. Here is who I am tentatively planning on using:

Week 12: Indy (vs Buffalo)
Week 13: Dallas (vs Philly at Dallas)
Week 14: TB (vs Philly at TB) or Seattle (at home vs Ariz)
Week 15: Oakland (vs KC at Oakland)
Week 16: Denver (vs Clev at Denver)
Week 17: NO (vs Carolina at NO)

Any glaring craziness in that path?


TDA

Do you still have Cinci? I like them a lil better this week then Indy
and best time to use them for rest of season other then maybe wk 15.
Depends how Luck rebounds but his confidence could be smashed
after last game and Buff coming off a nice win should have plenty of it.
But just imo, just starting to look at this week's games so not my final
decision yet either.

Also in wk 13 do you think Carolina's too unpredictable to take?
I have them as one of some possible choices for wk 13 vs KC but again
just at first glance.

If you believe the records posted on this site

http://www.predictem.com/nfl/post-bye.php

then teams record SU after the bye is 366-326 for a tidy 53%, certainly nothing earth-shattering but nothing to laugh at either.

It is also worth nothing that the Titans is still very much in the hunt for a wild-card spot in the weak(er) AFC. If they want to make the playoff, this is the type of game that they need to win. Not saying they will but there is certainly more at stake for them compared to the Jags who is probably auditioning for jobs next season.

I think using Oakland PERIOD is nuts. I know KC sucks but Oakland is a team that can't get out of their own way. It's a divisional rivalry and by no means is Oakland a lock to win that game or any game for that matter.
I would much rather go with Miami vs. Jacksonville or Tennessee vs. NY Jets.
Both teams are home and more reliable in my opinion.

But I LOVE Dallas in Week 13. They will have 11 days of rest between games since they are playing on Thanksgiving. Meanwhile Philly plays on Monday night and then travels to Dallas for Sunday night football. And let's hope that Vick and McCoy are still out because I am using Dallas as well that week. And throw in the fact that Dallas will be playing their 3rd straight game at home. Something I think is a huge advantage.

Lastly I would probably go with Denver this week. The Colts may be good on offense but that defense is wretched. And the bills have talent so that's a game where anything can happen.

Therefore use Seattle at home in week 14, where they almost never lose.
And then save Tampa Bay in week 16 instead of Denver. Tampa is home vs. the rams.

Now I know this might be a stretch but Denver may not be playing for much in week 16. They'll have won the division for sure and may not be in a position to move up. Houston and New England have tie breakers over them.

Hope this helps. Good lucky buddy.

If I still have Denver, Cinci left is there value in not using them this week?
Only other week I would use Cinci would be wk 15 @ Phil, Denver I could use in
wk 14,16, or 17. Other options I like this week would be possibly Baltimore, Seattle or Indy
but Seattle wk 14 or 17 seems a lot better and Indy not too confident on. I suppose NE is also an option this week, but obv a lot better spots to use them down the road also.

Also to take into account with my pool that has 13 left: 9 Used NE, 4 SF, 7 Dallas, 2 Baltimore, 1 Cinci, and 1 Denver thus far. Just sick of seeing 90% of my pool taking the heavy favorites and advancing on no problem (including myself in wk 10), so thinking of other options against the crowd.

Yeah I hate it when I'm with 80% of the pool on a pick. No real chance to slim it down. But in this situation I think it's wise to go with Denver here. I think Cincy should win, but I don't feel overly confident about them myself.

I agree about Seattle. I would not even consider using them away from home. They are a virtual lock to beat the cards or rams there.

Tough call but the object is to survive and Denver undoubtedly gives you the best chance to do that this week.

Dallas this week, ez call. Most are on den and cincy in this one.

However as much as I'm not superstitious, in wk 9 the clear favorite in my pool was Houston and that was a pretty close game that Buff coulda won (I think they were leading at half in fact or tied). In wk 10, I went with the crowd and look how that Pitt game turned out - a sweat til the end of OT after looking like a lock on paper beforehand.
Fast fwd to last wk, 7 of 13 of my pool had Dallas and another OT game and I felt lucky enough to have Houston left so took them and jeez was that a nail biter and another close call, which also looked a million times better on paper beforehand.

Seems later in the season more injuries start showing how much they've been adding up over the whole season, teams' records may already be clinched for divisions and lack motivation in sub par games etc etc more crazy stuff has been happening, idk what it is lol.
And I know we're talking bout the Chiefs here, but who knows these turns of events just make me wanna go against the pack more n more as the Season gets deeper, on top of future value indicators as well.

I have no idea how you can trust Dallas. Have they ever given any reason to trust them? They have talent but no discipline. Their coaching and ownership lacks direction and leadership. And it shows on the field when they lose games they should EASILY win. Last week they got lucky to win and now with a dynamic QB coming to town don't be surprised at all to see the Cowboys lose.

In terms of his pool, ev wise Dallas is his best pick. 90% of his pool will be on everyone else. Do I think Dallas.sucks? Yes.

Yea I'd be really uncomfortable taking Dallas in that game...Baltimore prob the most comfortable of the other picks, Indy kinda meh on but gotta look at it a bit more.

Ended up taking the Colts, holy shiiit that was a hard choice (between Indy, Dallas, Balt) but I feel I'm at so much of an advantage later on if I save Denver for the many options in next few weeks and especially Cinci for Wk 15 when everyone else will be stuck with some horrific picks in my pool.

Just got the spreadsheet:
9 Denver
1 Cinci
1 NE
1 Sea
1 Indy (me)

I hope you get a victory this week because it sounds like the rest of schedule sets up nicely for you.
When you get chance do me a favor and see my post above and let me know what you think about my choices the rest of the way.
Thanks and good luck.

Cin @ phi is a great pick?

Also thinking of rolling the dice on Indy. As of now 5 of the 7 picks are in with 3 Den, 1 Tenn, 1 Cincy besides my indy. Like the fact of saving them more then taking them now. May wind up changing my mind however. But dont wanna be stuck week 14 taking SEA with the majority and leaving Den if im still alive, gives me another option.

I'm going Indy because I'm the only one of 6 people left who has a rebuy.

Yes is it that far fetched? Of the available options I'll have left
and everyone else in my pool, and hopefully Vick is still out
and they still have such huge problems with O line and Defense.
Phil put up 6 against Wash and Wash D is pretty suspect,
Cinci better on both sides of the ball O and D.

Like Cinci lil better then Sea on the road, don't trust MIA lately
but this is all assuming you don't have Houston left like me and/or
don't wanna put too much trust in Oak for this week 15.