lol at needing to fax in entries.

how much of a discount from your current equity do you sell your pick at?

Yes I don't completely understand the reason for faxing in the entry, it could be due to security and to avoid disputes e.g. you say you send email with your picks but the admin never got it.

Kinda like the old school bookie who still takes pick by phone or in person rather than through a website online.

Not sure what you mean by your second question. I am not in this Pool so I don't know how much people have been selling their picks for. Not sure if they want that to be widely known either. I know it happened and will hopefully find out next year lol

35 left with a 180k first prize...I would probably sell mine for like 3-5k. Then kill myself when all my picks win rest of season.

Also does not compute, how do that many people have Houston left?

Ranting, I feel like the 2013 version of this thread needs two important ground rules.

1. Mention up front if your pool has non-standard rules (rebuys, allowed to pick the same team multiple times, no Thursday games). It's fun to have the variation, but there are default survivor rules so make it clear if your pool is otherwise.

2. No questioning the market money lines by more than a few percent. It's OK to ask "How do people feel about team A -8.5, because I don't trust team B -9".

But it's not OK to say "I don't take road teams or division rivalries, so I'm passing on Team A -9 and Team B -8.5 and taking Team C -3"


This thread should be about maximizing EV using market lines, differentiation and future value. It's complicated enough based on that alone.

really? you'd sell $5143 equity for 3k?

this. i don't understand people with their strict rules. imagine a 20 pt road favourite. why would you not take them? "i don't take road teams" is a stupid reason. same with "i don't take divisional games"

Not sure if you are talking about the local Pool that I have posted picks regularly but if you are: 26 entries picked Houston this week and the Pool started out with 900+ entries.

Basic math would tell us less than 3% still have Houston at this stage of the game. Don't think that's unusual by any stretch of the imagination.

The guys who have made it this far (regardless what rules your Pool have) can't survive (pardon the pun) on luck alone. I bet you they probably have looked at all angles to maximize their EV like you and me are doing here.

But trying to maximize ev in survivor pools actually makes you less likely to survive from week to week because it generally involves avoiding the public favorite, who also happens to have the greatest winning chances.

yea but now in my league i'm the only one with houston, gb, new england, sf, bal

gotta be favorite

3 ATL (including me)
1 DAL
1 NOR

go browns/raiders!

Matt *Matty Ice* Ryan with 3 INTs and we are still in the 1st Q.

This is a disaster, get your **** together Falcons. If ATL loses and NE wins I'm going to be so pissed I didn't go with my original pick

Oh how it could have been if Cleveland and Jax managed to hang on to their leads

This sounds like a problem for Nate Silver. How is the population of your pool so different than the national average? I'm in a 400 person pool with 28 left, and not a single person has Houston this week.

Since chefs beat Saints, chefs have 0 wins & saints have 1 loss

You can't look at what your Pool does or does not do and paint a broad stroke for everybody else. Way too small a sample size.

The Pool that I am still alive in started with 342 and has 27 left for this week. Out of these 27, 5 people picked Houston and 3 people still has Houston left but they went with other teams (Dallas and New Orleans, not sure why but whatever floats their boats)

So that is 8 entries out of 342 that still has Houston in Week 11 for a 2.3%.

Just as bad of a result since new England dropped freaking 59 points

I must just be confused, you posted this two days ago:

looks like two different pools. one started with 342, has 27. the other started with 900+, 35 left.

Yeah, but the one with 26/35 taking Houston does not compute, which is how this started lol.

I'm not trying to split hairs. It is helpful to see what people are taking, especially since some pools have different deadlines. Just wondering about those numbers.

Sick to my stomach right now. I'm still alive in a $91,000 pool with 124 left going into today. 50 people had Dallas and 17 had the Texans.
Now the Texans game I don't feel as bad because it was only 17 and they are a top team. But the Cowboys should have lost that game. I know the browns suck but some bad play calling and bad luck lost them the game.
Instead of losing close to 40% of the pool we lost 3 guys, lol. Those 3 had the Rams.
This stuff will make you pull your hair out.

If you follow my posts in this thread, you will see that I repeatedly state I don't partake in the high-stake Local pool but like to post picks by Friday evening because I know a lot of sharps playing in said Pool and the picks may or may not help people here decide one way or another. I have done this for the past couple of years, you can search past Survivor threads for confirmation.

All of that is besides the point though. The point is you were surprised to see that many people still have Houston left and you cited your own Pool as an example. I countered back with 2 pools I have been playing in or have been following that still have a good # of entries with Houston available.

But you are right, it is no doubt helpful to see what people are taking, especially at this stage of the game where most (not all) people have burnt good teams and they have to step out of their comfort zone and make a ballsy pick.

This week will be a good test.

The point is, I don't see how this is possible without a typo, or very non-standard Survivor rules. This is what literally does not compute.

Week 9 (Posted Nov 2):
Week 11 (Posted Nov 16):

who did you have? Atlanta? they should've lost too. 5 ints, and 1 fumble lost. lol

Survived with Dallas and Atlanta. Literally survived.

TDA